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jimmy m
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10 Jul 2020, 12:06 am

COVID-19: 239 Scientists agree on Aerosolization transmission



An important paper It is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of COVID-19 was just published in Clinical Infectious Diseases.

In the paper the two authors endorsed by 239 scientists said that one of the methods of COVID-19 transmission was through Airborne Transmission (microdroplets). Up to this time, the World Health Organization (WHO) has denied this possibility.

This paper recommends three steps to mitigate this threat:
* Provide sufficient and effective ventilation (supply clean outdoor air, minimize recirculating air) particularly in public buildings, workplace environments, schools, hospitals, and aged care homes.
* Supplement general ventilation with airborne infection controls such as local exhaust, high efficiency air filtration, and germicidal ultraviolet lights.
* Avoid overcrowding, particularly in public transport and public buildings.

This is a major change in treatment protocols.

The World Health Organization got it wrong all this time.

[I have recommended the use of germicidal ultraviolet lights since March. Microdroplets is the reason why the cruise ships became hotbeds of COVID-19 transmission. It was passed through the HVAC systems on the ship. It is the reason why the coronavirus exploded in nursing homes, hospitals and in places like New York City with its subway systems.]


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10 Jul 2020, 1:52 am

jimmy m wrote:
germicidal ultraviolet lights



so....the sun?


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10 Jul 2020, 7:26 am

That’s the way it is with many infectious diseases. I’m not surprised. This also confirms the efficacy of masks.



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10 Jul 2020, 9:20 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
That’s the way it is with many infectious diseases. I’m not surprised. This also confirms the efficacy of masks.


That is correct but not just any kind of mask but those that filter out extremely small particles, the viruses. Those are N95s or better. So anyone traveling this winter in NYC should wear N95s while they are on the subway trains or buses. That is unless they already contracted the disease and have antibodies, such as yourself. You are probably in the clear.


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10 Jul 2020, 9:59 am

Kiprobalhato wrote:
jimmy m wrote:
germicidal ultraviolet lights



so....the sun?


The sun generates three types of ultraviolet light called UVA [400-315 nm], UVB [315-280 nm] and UVC [280-100 nm]. Earth's atmosphere and the ozone layer blocks most of the UVC radiation from ever reaching the surface of the planet. But most of the UVA and a little bit UVB gets through. Expose your eyes to UVC can cause blindness. Many people wear UV rated sunglasses or UV rated sun tan lotion during the summer as protection from UV light.

So the solution here is to put a little bit of the sun [UVC light] deep inside a box and pass air through the box. The light must be hidden because it can be hazardous to humans. But inside a box, it is locked away, buried deep inside. One good box is the metal flashing that is the entrance into the HVAC systems in buildings such as nursing homes, hospitals, offices, homes, businesses, cruise ships, subway cars, buses, aircraft. It is the ventilations systems. It can even be installed in taxis and Ubers and Lyfts. It can be installed in schools, gyms, grocery stores, barber shops. COVID-19 has an engineering solution. Once the transformation is complete, COVID-19 will be brought to its knees.

But something else will also happen. Because UVC will destroy not only viruses, but also bacteria and even mold spores. So most diseases such as the common influenza virus will decline. [Up to 650,000 die each year from respiratory diseases linked the seasonal flu.] And should the dreaded pneumonic variant of the Black Plague reappear, this will be a major weapon in the arsenal to control its spread.


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10 Jul 2020, 10:55 am

Dr. Li-Meng Yan has an interesting story to tell.

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Yan, who says she was one of the first scientists in the world to study the novel coronavirus, was allegedly asked by her supervisor at the University/WHO reference lab, Dr. Leo Poon, in 2019 to look into the odd cluster of SARS-like cases coming out of mainland China at the end of December 2019.

"The China government refused to let overseas experts, including ones in Hong Kong, do research in China," she said. "So I turned to my friends to get more information."

Yan had an extensive network of professional contacts in various medical facilities in mainland China, having grown up and completed much of her studies there. She says that is the precise reason she was asked to conduct this kind of research, especially at a time when she says her team knew they weren’t getting the whole truth from the government.

One friend, a scientist at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in China, had first-hand knowledge of the cases and purportedly told Yan on Dec. 31 about human-to-human transmission well before China or the WHO admitted such spread was possible.

She reported some of these early findings back to her boss, Yan said.

"He just nodded," she recalled, and told her to keep working.

A few days later, on Jan. 9, 2020, the WHO put out a statement: "According to Chinese authorities, the virus in question can cause severe illness in some patients and does not transmit readily between people... There is limited information to determine the overall risk of this reported cluster.”

Yan said she and her colleagues across China discussed the peculiar virus but that she soon noted a sharp shift in tone.

Doctors and researchers who had been openly discussing the virus suddenly clammed up. Those from the city of Wuhan--which later would become the hub of the outbreak--went silent and others were warned not to ask them details.

The doctors said, ominously, "We can't talk about it, but we need to wear masks,'" Yan said.

Then the numbers of human-to-human transmission began to grow exponentially, according to her sources, and Yan started digging for answers.

"There are many, many patients who don't get treatment on time and diagnosis on time," Yan said. "Hospital doctors are scared, but they cannot talk. CDC staff are scared."

She said she reported her findings to her supervisor again on Jan. 16 but that's when he allegedly told her "to keep silent, and be careful."

"As he warned me before, 'Don't touch the red line,'" Yan said referring to the government. "We will get in trouble and we'll be disappeared."

She also claims the co-director of a WHO-affiliated lab, Professor Malik Peiris, knew but didn't do anything about it.

Peiris also did not respond to requests for comment. The WHO website lists Peiris as an "adviser" on the WHO International Health Regulations Emergency Committee for Pneumonia due to the Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV.

Yan was frustrated, but not surprised.

"I already know that would happen because I know the corruption among this kind of international organization like the WHO to China government, and to China Communist Party," she said. "So basically... I accept it but I don't want this misleading information to spread to the world."

The WHO and China have vehemently denied claims of a coronavirus cover-up.

The WHO has also denied that Yan, Poon or Peiris ever worked directly for the organization.

"Professor Malik Peiris is an infectious disease expert who has been on WHO missions and expert groups - as are many people eminent in their fields," WHO spokeswoman Margaret Ann Harris said in an email. "That does not make him a WHO staff member, nor does he represent WHO."

Yan says despite any pushback, she has been emboldened by a sense of right and wrong and says she had to speak up despite the personal and professional consequences.

"I know how they treat whistleblowers," she said.

Like so many before her, once Yan decided to speak out against China, she discovered her life was apparently in jeopardy, as well as that of those closest to her.

It was a fear directly relayed to her and seemingly confirmed by U.S.-based Hong Kong blogger Lu Deh, she says.

After she shared some of her theories and suspicions with him, he told her she would need to relocate, perhaps to the United States, where she wouldn't have to constantly look over her shoulder. Only then would she be safe and have a platform to speak, he said.

Yan made the decision to leave, but things got complicated when her husband of six years, who also worked at her lab, discovered the telephone call between his wife and the blogger.

Yan begged her husband to go with her, and says while her spouse, a reputable scientist himself, had initially been supportive of her research, he suddenly had a change of heart.

"He was totally pissed off," she said. "He blamed me, tried to ruin my confidence... He said they will kill all of us.'"

Shocked and hurt, Yan made the decision to leave without him.

Hours before she boarded an April 28 Cathay Pacific flight to the United States, the respected doctor who specialized in virology and immunology at the Hong Kong School of Public Health had plotted her escape, packing her bag and sneaking past the censors and video cameras on campus.

She had her passport and her purse and was about to leave all of her loved ones behind. If she was caught, she knew she could be thrown in jail -- or, worse, rendered one of the "disappeared."

Yan, now in hiding, claims the government in the country where she was born is trying to shred her reputation and accuses government goons of choreographing a cyber-attack against her in hopes of keeping her quiet.

[She said] if she tried to tell her story in China, she "will be disappeared and killed."

Yan believes her life is in danger. She fears she can never go back to her home and lives with the hard truth that she’ll likely never see her friends or family there again.

As Yan was trying to find her footing in America, she says her friends and family back home were being put through the wringer.

Yan claims the government swarmed her hometown of Qingdao and that agents ripped apart her tiny apartment and questioned her parents. When she contacted her mother and father, they pleaded with her to come home, told her she didn't know what she was talking about and begged her to give up the fight.

Yan's story weaves an extraordinary claim about cover-ups at the highest levels of government and seemingly exposes the obsessive compulsion of President Xi Jinping and his Communist Party to control the coronavirus narrative: what China knew, when it knew it and what edited information it peddled to the rest of the world.

Source: Chinese virologist accuses Beijing of coronavirus cover-up, flees Hong Kong: 'I know how they treat whistleblowers'


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11 Jul 2020, 4:00 pm

Coronavirus deaths take a long-expected turn for the worse

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A long-expected upturn in U.S. coronavirus deaths has begun, driven by fatalities in states in the South and West, according to data on the pandemic.

The number of deaths per day from the virus had been falling for months, and even remained down as states like Florida and Texas saw explosions in cases and hospitalizations — and reported daily U.S. infections broke records several times in recent days.

Scientists warned it wouldn't last. A coronavirus death, when it occurs, typically comes several weeks after a person is first infected. And experts predicted states that saw increases in cases and hospitalizations would, at some point, see deaths rise too. Now that's happening.

“It's consistently picking up. And it's picking up at the time you'd expect it to," said William Hanage, a Harvard University infectious diseases researcher.

According to an Associated Press analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University, the seven-day rolling average for daily reported deaths in the U.S. has increased from 578 two weeks ago to 664 on July 10 — still well below the heights hit in April. Daily reported deaths increased in 27 states over that time period, but the majority of those states are averaging under 15 new deaths per day. A smaller group of states has been driving the nationwide increase in deaths.

California is averaging 91 reported deaths per day while Texas is close behind with 66, but Florida, Arizona, Illinois, New Jersey and South Carolina also saw sizable rises. New Jersey's recent jump is thought to be partially attributable to its less frequent reporting of probable deaths.

The impact has already been felt by families who lost kin — and by the health care workers who tried to save them.

Rublas Ruiz, a Miami intensive care unit nurse, recently broke down in tears during a birthday dinner with his wife and daughter. He said he was overcome by the number of patients who have died in his care.

“I counted like 10 patients in less than four days in our ICU and then I stopped doing that because there were so many,” said the 41-year-old nurse at Kendall Regional Medical Center who lost another patient Monday.

The virus has killed more than 130,000 people in the U.S. and more than a half-million worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins University, though the true numbers are believed to be higher.

Deaths first began mounting in the U.S. in March. About two dozen deaths were being reported daily in the middle of that month. By late in the month, hundreds were being reported each day, and in April thousands. Most happened in New York, New Jersey and elsewhere in the Northeast.

Deaths were so high there because it was a new virus tearing through a densely populated area, and it quickly swept through vulnerable groups of people in nursing homes and other places, said Perry Halkitis, the dean of the Rutgers University School of Public Health in New Jersey.

Many of the infections occurred before government officials imposed stay-at-home orders and other social-distancing measures. The daily death toll started falling in mid-April — and continued to fall until about a week ago.

Researchers now expect deaths to rise for at least some weeks, but some think the count probably will not go up as dramatically as it did in the spring — for several reasons.

First, testing was extremely limited early in the pandemic, and it's become clear that unrecognized infections were spreading on subways, in nursing homes and in other public places before anyone knew exactly what was going on. Now testing is more widespread, and the magnitude of outbreaks is becoming better understood.

Second, many people’s health behaviors have changed, with mask-wearing becoming more common in some places. Although there is no vaccine yet, hospitals are also getting better at treating patients.

Another factor, tragically, is that deadly new viruses often tear through vulnerable populations first, such as the elderly and people already weakened by other health conditions. That means that, in the Northeast at least, “many of the vulnerable people have already died,” Halkitis said.

Now, the U.S. is likely in for “a much longer, slower burn,” Hanage, the Harvard researcher, said. "We're not going to see as many deaths (as in the spring). But we're going to see a total number of deaths, which is going to be large.”

In other virus-related developments:

— Walt Disney World’s Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom are reopening Saturday; Epcot and Disney’s Hollywood Studios will follow four days later. The move comes as there has been a surge in the number of Floridians testing positive for the coronavirus and the state set a record of nearly 500 confirmed deaths in a week.

— The number of New Yorkers hospitalized with the coronavirus — 799 — has fallen to the lowest point since March 18. But Gov. Andrew Cuomo fears a resurgence in cases is inevitable amid outbreaks in other states.

Kristin Urquiza is worried things may get dramatically worse soon in at least some American cities, like Phoenix, where her 65-year-old father died recently.

When the dangers of the virus first became known, Mark Anthony Urquiza, a quality assurance inspector, took precautions such as wearing a face mask and staying home as much as possible, his daughter said.

But that changed after Gov. Doug Ducey ended Arizona’s stay-at-home order on May 15, eased restrictions on businesses, and initially blocked local lawmakers from requiring residents to wear masks.

By June 11, the elder Urquiza had developed a fever and cough. He was hospitalized and eventually placed on a ventilator. He died June 30.

"His life was robbed. I believe that terrible leadership and flawed policies put my father's life in the balance," Kristin Urquiza said in an interview with The Associated Press.

Ducey, a Republican, has more recently changed direction, closing many businesses and allowing mayors to make mask-wearing mandatory.

But Kristin Urquiza is worried. Her father received the care at a time when beds in intensive care units were readily available. Now some Arizona ICUs are becoming swamped.

“Other families are not going to be reassured the hospitals will have the capacity to give (coronavirus) victims the dignity and the health care that they deserve. And that breaks my heart,” she said.


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11 Jul 2020, 6:29 pm

BROKEN HEART SYNDROME

A new study released by the Journal of the American Medical Association on Thursday found that cardiomyopathy, or "Broken Heart Syndrome," has increased during the coronavirus pandemic.

Conducted by researchers at the Cleveland Clinic in two Ohio hospitals, the study examined 1,914 patients from five distinct two-month periods -- 250 of which had been hospitalized in March and April -- who presented Acute Coronary Syndrome. They compared those patients to others who had shown similar problems across four timelines during the course of the last two years.

The study found the incidence of stress cardiomyopathy, or Takotsubo Syndrome, increased by a significant 7.8 percent during the pandemic's initial apex, compared with prepandemic incidences that ranged from 1.5 percent to 1.8 percent. The findings suggest that psychological, social and economic stress related to the coronavirus are associated with the increase.

Japanese scientists first identified Takotsubo Syndrome in 1990. While the causes of the condition are not yet fully understood, physicians believe a person’s reaction to unexpected stressful events can cause a release of stress hormones that temporarily reduce the heart’s ability to pump -- causing it to contract less efficiently or irregularly.

"The association between stress cardiomyopathy and increasing levels of stress and anxiety has long been established," the report's authors wrote. "The psychological, social, and economic distress accompanying the pandemic, rather than direct viral involvement and sequelae of the infection, are more likely factors associated with the increase in stress cardiomyopathy cases. This was further supported by negative COVID-19 testing results in all patients diagnosed with stress cardiomyopathy in the study group."

This said, the researchers also noted some limitations to their study, including that their patient sample solely represented the population of Northeast Ohio.

"The results should be interpreted with caution when applied to other states or countries," they said. "Further research must examine the association of COVID-19 with the incidence of stress cardiomyopathy and study any temporal or regional differences."

In addition, they noted it was "plausible" patients with heart problems had chosen to avoid visiting hospitals amid the pandemic.

Since the pandemic began, health officials have warned about the impact of coronavirus on mental health.

“The impact of the pandemic on people’s mental health is already extremely concerning,” World Health Organization Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus wrote in a May United Nations policy brief. "Social isolation, fear of contagion, and loss of family members is compounded by the distress caused by loss of income and often employment.”

According to the National Center for Health Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, an estimated 23.5 percent of Americans reported feeling symptoms of depressive disorder between April 23 and May 5. That figure rose to 25.1 percent between June 11 and June 16.

Source: 'Broken Heart Syndrome' has increased during coronavirus pandemic, study shows


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12 Jul 2020, 3:33 am

Texas morgues filling up, refrigerated trailers sought by some counties to hold bodies

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More than 3,000 Texans have now died from the coronavirus and counties in the state are preparing for even more deaths by expanding their capacities to store bodies, some by requesting refrigerated trailers.

"That's why we're asking people to wear face masks," Nueces County Judge Barbara Canales told KRIS-TV. "I am now having to order additional body bags and morgue trailers. People have to understand how real it is."

In that county, which includes the city of Corpus Christi, the morgue is already full. County medical examiner Dr. Adel Shaker has requested an extra morgue trailer, provided by FEMA to local authorities. The refrigerated truck has a temperature-control system and can accommodate up to 40 more bodies, adding to the current 12-body capacity located inside the morgue building itself.

The county and the city of Corpus Christi reported 29 deaths this week, including a baby boy who wasn’t 6 months old yet. That's nearly 70% of their total of 42 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. A morgue trailer was in place at the beginning of the pandemic, but it was “released” early, Shaker said.

“We have seen very few deaths for the first few months of the pandemic, so the FEMA trailer was placed in another city. But the need is here now,” he said.

Unlike other states, Texas does not publicly report probable coronavirus deaths, which means patients who have died without testing positive for Covid-19 could go uncounted. More Houston residents are also dying at home before they can make it to a hospital. That means the death toll is likely higher than the state’s official count.

The rate of deaths in Texas has been accelerating. On Friday, the state surpassed 3,000 deaths 24 days after 2,000 deaths were reported. It took 53 days to get from the first death to 1,000 deaths and 39 days to get from 1,000 to 2,000 deaths.

Nearly 40% of Texas’ fatalities were residents of long-term care facilities, such as nursing homes or assisted living facilities. Other hot-spots include prisons and meatpacking plants.

The death rate is a lagging indicator and has not yet followed the same steep curve as new cases and hospitalizations, but experts warn the worst could come. On average over the past week, 63 people have died daily, with a peak of 105 people on Thursday. The week prior, on July 3, this 7-day average was 35.

Austin and Travis County are “in the process of procuring a refrigerated truck to face the surge in Covid-19 deaths,” Travis County public information officer Hector Nieto said.

The mobile morgue will be placed where there “is space for it” and where it is needed the most, whether closer to hospitals or to the county morgue. Nieto could not confirm when the unit will arrive.

Cameron County is also preparing for a worst-case scenario and bought a 53-foot refrigerated trailer in case morgues become full, Juan Martinez, the local emergency management department’s operations section chief told The Valley Morning Star.

“Our hope is we never have to use it,” he told the newspaper.

Hidalgo County also said that they will share a refrigerated FEMA trailer with neighboring Cameron County.

“I’m going to let them take this one, because they are in dire need," Ricardo Saldaña, Hidalgo County emergency management coordinator, said.

People who die in hospitals or in nursing homes under a doctor’s care don’t usually go through the medical examiner’s office and will not go to the county morgue.

In Houston, a spokeswoman at the Harris County Institute of Forensic Sciences insisted that no extra capacity is needed at the county morgue right now. But individual hospitals are also counting on refrigerated trucks to expand their morgue’s capacity. HCA Healthcare Northwest confirmed to the Houston Chronicle that a refrigerated trailer is being used as temporary storage before the transfer from the hospital to funeral homes.

Williamson County had assembled a mobile morgue to be prepared, but it was returned to its vendor around June 1, given that the county has not seen large volumes of deaths in a short period of time. Their capacity is currently 50 bodies, between hospitals, funeral homes and the county morgue. A mobile unit “would be quite easy to add,” if the toll gets dire, County Judge Bill Gravell said.

Gravell also said such preparations are “the part of the story no one wants to talk about.”

“It’s difficult, complicated and incredibly painful for families,” he said.


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12 Jul 2020, 5:32 am

New York had refrigerator trucks in March. There was at least a 2-week backlog in funerals and cremations at one point. NYC had 500 deaths A DAY for more than a week in April.

They do record “probable COVID19 deaths.”



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12 Jul 2020, 3:16 pm

CORONAVIRUS Florida’s 15,300 new COVID-19 cases sets a new U.S. pandemic record, topping New York’s April 4 peak

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Florida hit an alarming one-day high on Sunday with 15,300 new coronavirus cases, shattering both the state and national record for new cases reported since the start of the pandemic.

With Sunday’s staggering surge in new cases, Florida eclipsed New York’s coronavirus peak of 12,274 cases on April 4.

Researchers say they expect deaths to rise nationwide in the coming weeks, but some aren’t expecting the numbers to spike as dramatically as they did in the spring partly due to increased testing.

Adm. Brett Giroir, a member of the White House coronavirus task force, says mask-wearing is key to curbing the spread of the potentially fatal virus.

If we don’t have that, we will not get control of the virus,” Giroir, assistant secretary at the Health and Human Services Department, told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday.

Florida reported 45 new deaths Sunday morning. That’s a lower tally than in the past several days.

On Thursday, Florida reported 120 deaths in one day, setting a state record for daily deaths during the pandemic. On Saturday, two days later, Florida tallied its second-most deaths in a day, with 98. Friday’s death toll was also high, at 93.

At least 4,346 people have died from the virus in Florida, reports show. That figure includes 104 people from outside the state.

How Florida compares to other hot spots

According to the CDC COVID Data Tracker, Florida has recorded 19.7 deaths and 1,178.4 cases per 100,000 people.

Arizona, another hot spot for the virus, has reported 30 deaths and 1,672.3 cases for every 100,000 people.

New York City has had 277.2 deaths and 2,625.9 cases for every 100,000 people. And New York State, excluding New York City, has had 78.4 deaths and 1,636.1 cases for every 100,000 people.

Massachusetts has had 120.4 deaths and 1,614 cases per 100,000 people.

California has had 17.6 deaths and 789.6 cases per 100,000 people.

Texas has had 10.8 deaths and 872.6 cases per 100,000 people.

And Louisiana has had 73 deaths and 1,648.1 cases per 100,000 people.

Key metrics
All numbers are up from a week ago, from cases to hospitalizations and deaths:

Cases saw a 52.1% increase from last Sunday, jumping from 10,059 cases to 15,300.
The number of new hospitalizations for the day increased by 54%, from 161 to 248.
And deaths increased by 55.2%, from 29 to 45.
Testing trends and the positivity rate

Since the pandemic began, 269,811 people have tested positive for the virus in Florida. So far, a total of 2,576,813 people have been tested.

The positivity rate for the 24-hour period is roughly 15.4%. That represents a decline over the past few days. The positivity rate on Wednesday was 19.5%, a decline from a pandemic high of 20.8% on Tuesday.

In South Florida, the state’s epicenter for coronavirus infections, the virus is still on the move.

On Sunday, the daily positive test rate was 19% for Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties.

South Florida
South Florida, which accounts for 29% of Florida’s population, reported 6,477 new cases in the past day, or 42% of the total.

Broward County: 1,763 new coronavirus cases reported Sunday, bringing the total to 29,650. A total of 487 people have died, nine more since Saturday.

Palm Beach County
: 1,163 new cases were reported, bringing the total to 20,811. A total of 620 people have died, 12 more since Saturday.

Miami-Dade County: 3,551 new cases, bringing the total to 63,780. A total of 1,154 people have died. That’s seven more than Saturday.

Hospitalizations
The state just began reporting the current number of people hospitalized for COVID-19, having previously reported only the total number since the epidemic began. The current number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Florida stands at 7,511.

An additional 273 people were reported hospitalized on Sunday.

Miami-Dade County has the most with 1,678 hospitalized, followed by Broward with 931 and Palm Beach County with 623.

Deaths
Statewide: The official COVID-19 death total for Florida stood at 4,346 on Sunday. That figure includes 104 non-residents.

Senior care: At least 2,100 of the state’s deaths have occurred in nursing homes and long-term care facilities, a figure that represents 48% of the state’s total for coronavirus deaths. Broward accounted for 169 deaths or 8%. Miami-Dade accounted for 551 deaths, or 26%, and Palm Beach County had 257 deaths, or 12%.

Global view
U.S.: The coronavirus death toll in the United States reached 135,029 as of 1:30 p.m. Sunday, according to the Coronavirus Resource Center at Johns Hopkins University.

The United States reported nearly 3.3 million cases, the highest total in the world. Death tolls remained highest in New York State, with 32,348, and New Jersey, with 15,525.

Worldwide: The global total reached 12.8 million cases Sunday, with at least 566,210 deaths, Johns Hopkins reported.

The U.S. has 4.3% of the world’s population and 25.6% of the world’s cases.


Pandemic Parties Rage On Across South Florida Despite Growing Coronavirus Crisis
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Pulsing parties in swanky South Beach mansions. Raging raves in Miami warehouses. Backyard bashes in Palm Beach manors where teenagers drink late into the night.

South Florida is a world epicenter of coronavirus infections, but some irrepressible revelers insist on trying to live out the subtropical promise of fun, sin and sun — COVID-19 or not. Experts say the pandemic parties could cost them their life.

A review of police records, social media accounts, and interviews with professional event planners who refuse to let COVID-19 kill the music shows that South Florida’s world-famous party culture is alive and well.


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TheRobotLives
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12 Jul 2020, 9:32 pm

So, what's the truth about school reopenings?

Can children contract the virus and bring it home to their households?

If so, then it seems like the US will have an explosion in new cases in a few months?


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funeralxempire
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12 Jul 2020, 9:35 pm

TheRobotLives wrote:
Can children contract the virus and bring it home to their households?

If so, then it seems like the US will have an explosion in new cases in a few months?


Yes and almost certainly.


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jimmy m
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12 Jul 2020, 10:02 pm

I think the coronavirus deaths need to be put in context of the total number of deaths in the U.S. each month. According to the CDC this is the monthly mortality rate (all causes).

2019 March---253,000
2019 February---232,000
2019 January---257,000
2018 December---249,000
2018 November---233,000
2018 October---234,000
2018 September---219,000
2018 August---224,000
2018 July---225,000
2018 June---220,000
2018 May---229,000
2018 April---233,000
2018 March---249,000
2018 February---237,000
2018 January---287,000

If you focus solely on COVID deaths, then you neglect the number of individuals in lockdown who became despondent and committed suicide. Or the number of children who did not get their immunizations shots and will lose their lives due to contracting a preventable disease. Or the increase in deaths because very sick patients avoided treatment because they were afraid of seeking medical care. Or those whose depression during the lockdown caused them to seek drug and alcohol addition with unintended consequences. All life has risk. Risk should be placed in proper context with other risks.


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TheRobotLives
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12 Jul 2020, 10:25 pm

jimmy m wrote:
I think the coronavirus deaths need to be put in context of the total number of deaths in the U.S. each month. According to the CDC this is the monthly mortality rate (all causes).

2019 March---253,000
2019 February---232,000
2019 January---257,000
2018 December---249,000
2018 November---233,000
2018 October---234,000
2018 September---219,000
2018 August---224,000
2018 July---225,000
2018 June---220,000
2018 May---229,000
2018 April---233,000
2018 March---249,000
2018 February---237,000
2018 January---287,000

If you focus solely on COVID deaths, then you neglect the number of individuals in lockdown who became despondent and committed suicide. Or the number of children who did not get their immunizations shots and will lose their lives due to contracting a preventable disease. Or the increase in deaths because very sick patients avoided treatment because they were afraid of seeking medical care. Or those whose depression during the lockdown caused them to seek drug and alcohol addition with unintended consequences. All life has risk. Risk should be placed in proper context with other risks.

Lock down probably saves way more lives because people don't get the flu, STDs, or die in accidents or become victims of crime as much.


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magz
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13 Jul 2020, 5:20 am

jimmy m wrote:
I think the coronavirus deaths need to be put in context of the total number of deaths in the U.S. each month. According to the CDC this is the monthly mortality rate (all causes).

2019 March---253,000
2019 February---232,000
2019 January---257,000
2018 December---249,000
2018 November---233,000
2018 October---234,000
2018 September---219,000
2018 August---224,000
2018 July---225,000
2018 June---220,000
2018 May---229,000
2018 April---233,000
2018 March---249,000
2018 February---237,000
2018 January---287,000

If you focus solely on COVID deaths, then you neglect the number of individuals in lockdown who became despondent and committed suicide. Or the number of children who did not get their immunizations shots and will lose their lives due to contracting a preventable disease. Or the increase in deaths because very sick patients avoided treatment because they were afraid of seeking medical care. Or those whose depression during the lockdown caused them to seek drug and alcohol addition with unintended consequences. All life has risk. Risk should be placed in proper context with other risks.

A useful tool: https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/
It counts overall mortality every week and compares it to previous years' averages. Sweden was famous for not intruducing lockdowns. Compare it to neighbouring Norway that did introduce lockdowns early.
There is enough data available to analyse outcomes of various approaches.


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