Sweden the only country with Correct Approach to CVD-19

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TheOneAndOnlyShane
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04 May 2020, 4:48 am

cyberdad wrote:
I'll make this simple....

There is a trade-off that countries make between herd immunity and lockdown waiting for a vaccine.

The lockdown approach reduces mortality but depends on two assumptions...i) the economy can withstand the time there is a lockdown ii) when a vaccine is produced it actually works? the latter is based on faith because we have no idea how effective a vaccine will be or how frequently it will need to be taken?

Sweden has taken a herd immunity approach which means the younger generation are exposed to the virus and gain some level of immunity. This protects it's economy at the expense of a couple of thousand old people

I think there are ethical problems with what Sweden has done but their population seems to have supported the general approach (particularly those at risk) because they are thinking in terms of long term prosperity for the vast majority of the population rather than strangling themselves so a few old people in their 80s can live for a couple more years.

Somewhere between the two approaches is probably the best - but I acknowledge Sweden has maybe tackled this more bravely and at least have consulted with older Swedes who have supported the move so their grandchildren have a future... a no brainer


The evidence on whether infection creates immunity is both limited and inconclusive at this time. Any herd immunity approach makes an awful big gamble.

What is known is that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is one of 7 coronavirus strains that infect humans. Compare that to the influenza family of viruses, which contains 4 genera, each with multiple strains. So, even doing some very limited digging on the Internet, it appears that the scope of immunity required for an effective vaccine is much smaller than something like the influenza family, and thus the development time and risk of failure are smaller. It appears that leading epidemiology experts have come to the same conclusion, but undoubtedly with more sophisticated research methodologies than a 24-year-old autistic man sitting in bed with his laptop (me) has access to.

Furthermore, the idea that "the economy must survive" and similar sentiments seem to be code among public figures for "the rich and powerful must remain so". World governments and business leaders could and should have begun preparing for something like this years ago. Instead they figured that they'd probably still be rich and powerful the time next election or next quarter rolled around, but that they probably wouldn't be if they actually invested enough resources into protecting the working class from a global economic disaster. Heck, I'm sure they figured they'd even make a quick buck or two off the deaths of a few hundred thousand people. Now that decision has come back to bite ordinary people in the rear end while the banksters and the inside traders have seen their wealth soar.

Hopefully these 3 things will happen:

1.) The public will restrict its movements and contacts enough to slow, stop, and reverse the spread of the disease, so that the world's medical research and care systems have the time and resources they need to treat as many people as possible and develop/distribute/administer cures and vaccines.

2.) The public will demand that the rich and powerful pull their friggin' weight for once and institute meaningful public economic relief systems for those out of work.

3.) They comply.

4.) These systems remain in place long enough to effectively mitigate the effects of the NEXT global disaster, whether it be a Greater Depression or World War III or COVID-2062 or the collapse of the United States or whatever.

That way we don't need to choose between the futures of the medically vulnerable and the futures of the younger generations, and if anything the latter will be more secure going forward.

And hopefully if those 4 things don't happen, there's enough popular discontent to either vote cowardly politicians out of office, remove greedy tycoons from executive boards, or just break out the guillotines and do things the old-fashioned way.

But I like to think that anybody smart enough to know how to tell being in the black from being in the red is also smart enough to recognize that giving up a fraction of their wealth for public benefit is the compromise option and that we don't necessarily need to see any heads roll (figuratively or literally).


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cyberdad
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04 May 2020, 5:06 am

TheOneAndOnlyShane wrote:
So, even doing some very limited digging on the Internet, it appears that the scope of immunity required for an effective vaccine is much smaller than something like the influenza family, and thus the development time and risk of failure are smaller. It appears that leading epidemiology experts have come to the same conclusion,


The scope for immunity is reliant on knowledge of the biology of the virus. I am waiting to see what investigations reveal given people in the US government as high as Mike Pompeo seem to be contradicting the "mantra" that the virus was not genetically modified and accidentally released from a Wuhan PC4 biolab
https://www.9news.com.au/world/mike-pom ... e0d303f940

What do they know that we don't?

The number of genetic strains is also in dispute and not to mention the apparent relapse of recovered patients.



kraftiekortie
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04 May 2020, 5:11 am

That was in a South Korean study where they found about 100 relapses out of about 7,000 cases. They were investigating the cause of the relapses—whether these folks actually had the disease.



magz
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04 May 2020, 5:22 am

There are conflicting interests:
Yes, it's good for healthy children to catch COVID19 and build immunity. Kids normally catch a lot of colds and this is how their immune systems get tuned. COVID19 seems no exception to this mechanism.
But apart from healthy children, schools also contain unhealthy children and adult staff, including old people (at least here - my older daughter's teacher is over 75).
Also, healthy children live with parents and sometimes grandparents, who may not be as healthy as their kids.

You can't build herd immunity without human sacrifices.


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kraftiekortie
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04 May 2020, 5:28 am

A few children have gotten major complications because of a hyperactive immune system...the sacrificial lambs....

Obviously, most children get off relatively scot-free—but getting Covid is not infallible, even for them.



cyberdad
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04 May 2020, 5:33 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
That was in a South Korean study where they found about 100 relapses out of about 7,000 cases. They were investigating the cause of the relapses—whether these folks actually had the disease.


But that's my point, its too early and the statistics vary wildly to make fixed judgement on the biology of the virus. For example in India 98% of people tested are asymptomatic -
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/video/t ... 2020-05-01

If that holds true (and I am not saying it is) then Sweden is totally justified in moving to herd immunity



goldfish21
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04 May 2020, 5:37 am

I’m not willing to let my parents die for the dow. f**k that.

As for the uber rich all of the sudden voluntarily becoming altruistic philanthropists: Nooooope, never gonna happen. Heads would have to start hitting the floor before people in their class might start choosing to support society instead of continuing their sick game of extracting as much wealth from it as possible.

So, get on with it then. People like me unwilling to kill our parents have made plenty of room in the streets. Build the guillotines & let those Billionaire heads start rolling.


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kraftiekortie
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04 May 2020, 5:39 am

The vast majority of people tested in NYC had at least rather severe symptoms.

They wouldn’t have been tested, otherwise.



magz
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04 May 2020, 5:41 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
A few children have gotten major complications because of a hyperactive immune system...the sacrificial lambs....
Tocilizumab seems effective against cytokine storm syndrome. I hope they develop a standard treatment for the syndrome - it would save the lives of otherwise healthy people at risk of dying from SARS, MERS, SARS2 and some other diseases like that.

kraftiekortie wrote:
Obviously, most children get off relatively scot-free—but getting Covid is not infallible, even for them.
Buying time with lockdowns is also meant to gain time to develop more successful treatments for those less lucky.


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goldfish21
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04 May 2020, 5:49 am

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goldfish21
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04 May 2020, 5:55 am

@cyberdad: IMO your argument of sacrificing a few thousand 80 year olds is absurd.

Even IF this disease only killed 80+ year olds it’s an as*hole move to kill off elders/grandparents for a few extra dollars - most of which accumulates in some Billionaires’ accounts anyways.

But it’s not just absurd for that. It’s absurd because this disease is killing people of almost all ages, not just 80+ or very sick. Read a few news headlines. Fit 30 something year olds are dying, children have died, too.

Annnnd, besides the Lt. Governor of Texas going on Fox News to say he’s willing to die for the economy, what 70+ year olds are chomping at the bit to die so their grandkids can work shitty paying jobs while the rich get richer? Almost none. Like W in T actual F?


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magz
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04 May 2020, 5:56 am

goldfish21 wrote:
Build the guillotines & let those Billionaire heads start rolling.

I hope you're aware that revolutions tend to devour their own children.
It was true for the French Revolution, it was true for the Bolshevik Revolution, too.


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kraftiekortie
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04 May 2020, 5:57 am

If my job provides me with a parking space, I can go back to work right now. I’ve had the disease, and probably have antibodies against future invasions.

We were practicing social distancing in our worksite even before the Pandemic.



cyberdad
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04 May 2020, 6:03 am

goldfish21 wrote:
As for the uber rich all of the sudden voluntarily becoming altruistic philanthropists: Nooooope, never gonna happen. Heads would have to start hitting the floor before people in their class might start choosing to support society instead of continuing their sick game of extracting as much wealth from it as possible..


I doubt guillotining the ultra rich would be of any benefit given their investments/corporations keep food on our tables. Whether we like it or not we rely on these people and their money.



kraftiekortie
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04 May 2020, 6:07 am

Both exploitation and philanthropy occur from amongst the rich.



goldfish21
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04 May 2020, 6:12 am

cyberdad wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
As for the uber rich all of the sudden voluntarily becoming altruistic philanthropists: Nooooope, never gonna happen. Heads would have to start hitting the floor before people in their class might start choosing to support society instead of continuing their sick game of extracting as much wealth from it as possible..


I doubt guillotining the ultra rich would be of any benefit given their investments/corporations keep food on our tables. Whether we like it or not we rely on these people and their money.


We rely on consumers consuming for ya to get paid our pittance. Billionaires rely on our labour to produce their wealth. They need us more than we need them. It’s high time they get cut out of the loop.

It’s nice to see things like cooperatives and socially conscious B corps and non profits etc filling niches where greed has gone too far.

Maybe we’ll see a more rapid shift away from people being brainwashed into believing we need to sweat to maintain the bank accounts of the Billionaire class when this is all over.


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