Harvard and KPMG support MIT model for collapse of world

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cyberdad
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19 Jul 2021, 12:56 am

A remarkable new study by a director at one of the largest accounting firms in the world has found that a famous, decades-old warning from MIT about the risk of industrial civilization collapsing appears to be accurate based on new empirical data.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3xw3x/ ... lapse-soon

As the world looks forward to a rebound in economic growth following the devastation wrought by the pandemic, the research raises urgent questions about the risks of attempting to simply return to the pre-pandemic ‘normal.’

n 1972, a team of MIT scientists got together to study the risks of civilizational collapse. Their system dynamics model published by the Club of Rome identified impending ‘limits to growth’ (LtG) that meant industrial civilization was on track to collapse sometime within the 21st century, due to overexploitation of planetary resources.

The controversial MIT analysis generated heated debate, and was widely derided at the time by pundits who misrepresented its findings and methods. But the analysis has now received stunning vindication from a study written by a senior director at professional services giant KPMG, one of the 'Big Four' accounting firms as measured by global revenue.

The project was conducted at Harvard as part of a Masters thesis and generated the following data

Image

Study author Gaya Herrington told Motherboard that in the MIT World3 models, collapse “does not mean that humanity will cease to exist,” but rather that “economic and industrial growth will stop, and then decline, which will hurt food production and standards of living… In terms of timing, the BAU2 scenario shows a steep decline to set in around 2040.”



naturalplastic
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19 Jul 2021, 4:49 am

So... the End Times are Neigh!



cyberdad
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19 Jul 2021, 5:45 am

naturalplastic wrote:
So... the End Times are Neigh!


Fascinating isn't it.



roronoa79
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19 Jul 2021, 12:58 pm

It's going to be the Bronze Age Collapse all over again. Rather, an Oil Age Collapse.
It will start with crop failures--and at the rate the climate is changing, we will see ever more crops fail. Unrest and socio-economic disorder will soon follow. Be prepared...


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Fnord
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19 Jul 2021, 1:02 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
So... the End Times are Neigh!
"Nigh".  The End Times are "Nigh", meaning "Near".

"Neigh" is what comes straight from the horse's mouth... :wink:


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naturalplastic
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19 Jul 2021, 2:49 pm

Fnord wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
So... the End Times are Neigh!
"Nigh".  The End Times are "Nigh", meaning "Near".

"Neigh" is what comes straight from the horse's mouth... :wink:



I assumed that since the word "neighbor" (folks who live near you) derives from "nigh"(meaning "near"), that that the spelling would be the same. Whatever.



naturalplastic
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19 Jul 2021, 2:50 pm

Does Bill Nye, the science guy, agree that ...the end is nigh? :lol:



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19 Jul 2021, 3:12 pm

We've been prophesizing the End of the World.....almost since Man entered the World.

These sorts of prognostications, I find, frequently do not reflect what is "real." I prefer to live my life in the "real world."



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19 Jul 2021, 3:17 pm

Well...I guess one day, somebody's prediction will be right.


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19 Jul 2021, 4:03 pm

VegetableMan wrote:
Well...I guess one day, somebody's prediction will be right.
At which time, there will be no one left hear them say, "I told you so" ... and no one left to say it, either.


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19 Jul 2021, 4:10 pm

Unless the guy who made the prediction is one of the last few people on earth.

"I told you so!"

"Ah, f**k off! Just die already!"


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19 Jul 2021, 4:22 pm

I hope that as industrial output collapses we'll still be able to get air conditioners. I think we'll need them.


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19 Jul 2021, 5:24 pm

Yep....we certainly do.

Air-conditioning should be a Divine Right!



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19 Jul 2021, 8:35 pm




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cyberdad
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19 Jul 2021, 9:23 pm

What fascinates me is this type of data has been known for many years.

For example petroleum company Exxon accurately came up with predictive global warming data some 40 years ago
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... years-ago/
Of course they tried their best to lock up their reports and convince Americans to keep burning fossil fuels.

There are some really simple algorithms that can be generated about how unfettered economic growth that relies on natural resource extraction will eventually have to reach a plateau. For example the idea the entire human population can aspire to have the same quality of life as Americans is completely unsustainable, Nothing lasts forever,

Humans are amazingly short-term thinkers. We vote populist leaders who tell us what we want to hear. Not responsible leaders who will tell us what we need to do.

Cest la vie!