Hurricane Lee threatens New England and Atlantic Canada

Page 1 of 1 [ 7 posts ] 

ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,419
Location: Long Island, New York

11 Sep 2023, 6:15 pm

That is a big area and it is far from certain where the worst of it will be.

The storm will not be close to as bad as what have seen in Florida in the last few years.

Atlantic Canada has had several hits in the last few decades. Fiona was just last year.

New England has not been hit by a landfalling hurricane since 1991

This is a region that often sees damaging winds and coastal flooding from wintertime Noreasters.

Unlike in the wintertime, trees are foliated. Trees fall down easier when they are foliated.

Many tropical systems when they hit the cooler waters up north become hybrid hurricanes and Noreasters.

That means two things. The wind while not nearly as strong as the ones that hit down south cover a much larger area and the strongest winds can be a distance away from the center so where landfall occurs is not as important.

There are many factors that go into where and how bad a tropical system will be.

For this week I would not attempt swimming at any Atlantic-facing beaches on the east coast due to rip currents.

For residents of New England and Atlantic Canada prepare as you would for a very bad Noreaster.

The thinking is Lee will be in the region sometime around the weekend.


_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity

It is Autism Acceptance Month

“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman


funeralxempire
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 27 Oct 2014
Age: 39
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 25,466
Location: Right over your left shoulder

11 Sep 2023, 6:41 pm

Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing what Lee is going to do.


_________________
Watching liberals try to solve societal problems without a systemic critique/class consciousness is like watching someone in the dark try to flip on the light switch, but they keep turning on the garbage disposal instead.
戦争ではなく戦争と戦う


ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,419
Location: Long Island, New York

12 Sep 2023, 9:28 am

Bryan Norcross Hurricane expert says:

Quote:
Hurricane Lee is growing in diameter as it creeps to the west, well north of the Caribbean islands. The top winds decreased in intensity a little yesterday as the core of the hurricane grew in size. The total energy in the storm didn't change much, but it spread out. Larger storms move more water in the ocean, which means more strong swells pushing toward the East Coast.

Most computer forecasts and the National Hurricane Center's cone bring the center of Lee close enough to the New England coast that significant impacts are increasingly likely. Lee will continue to increase in size, and the jet stream dip propelling it north will also enhance the wind and rain on the left side of the storm – the side closest to or over the coast. Winds gusting to hurricane force and torrential rain are possible in a corridor that includes Boston.

The ground is saturated along the I-95 corridor, which would aggravate the flooding threat if the band of heavy rain in Lee's circulation rakes the coast.

Cape Cod sticks out closer to the hurricane's projected path, so even worse conditions are possible there. Also, if Lee tracks just offshore of the Cape, strong winds will push ocean water south into Cape Cod Bay and into the harbors, rivers, and inlets along the coast of southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod facing the bay.

Until Hurricane Lee's turn to the north is underway tomorrow, the forecasts will likely dance around, and the timing of direct impacts from wind and rain will be uncertain. But on the current schedule, the weather in coastal southeastern New England would start to deteriorate late Friday, peak Saturday, and exit Sunday except for the northern half of Maine.

Some computer forecasts show the storm lingering near New England longer than others. The steering flow is a bit complicated. If the jet-stream dip isn't quite strong enough to scoop the storm past New England and over Atlantic Canada, a bubble of blocking high pressure could slow it down and nudge it toward the coast while it waits for another jet-stream scoop later in the weekend. If the first jet-stream dip can't scoop it up and out in one swoop so that the storm slows down, Lee's track is more likely to bend closer to New England.

The top speed of the winds in Lee's circulation is forecast to continually drop as the storm moves north, but the size of the circulation is expected to dramatically grow in diameter. Don't be lulled by the lower numbers. Recall that Sandy had almost no hurricane-force winds in its circulation when it came ashore producing a massive storm surge.

We should get more forecast certainty once the storm starts its move to the north tomorrow. But there are things we know for sure today. Lee's increasingly large circulation will produce highly energized swells from Central Florida to Maine. Because of the direction of movement from south to north, the most intense energy will be focused north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina through the Northeast and New England and into Atlantic Canada.

The surf will be extremely hazardous with large waves energized by the hurricane. Beach erosion and dangerous currents in inlets and harbor entrances will be widespread.

On the current schedule, the ocean effects will peak in the Southeast on Thursday and the Northeast and New England on Friday and Saturday. Stay informed of local alerts from the National Weather Service and emergency officials.

Do not dismiss this threat in the Northeast. Hurricane Lee is unlikely to rival one of the great New England hurricanes of the past, but very dangerous conditions are possible along the coast and inland along the I-95 corridor. Power outages and flooding from storm surge and heavy rain are possible.

The possibilities range from disruptive and damaging at the coast to extreme. Be ready for the details of the forecast to change and watches and warnings to be issued in the days ahead.


_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity

It is Autism Acceptance Month

“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman


goldfish21
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 17 Feb 2013
Age: 41
Gender: Male
Posts: 22,612
Location: Vancouver, BC, Canada

12 Sep 2023, 2:51 pm

I wanna see any footage of crazy people out surfing/kiteboarding/wingfoiling/wind surfing etc in this. Hell, even sailing some small craft. There's gotta be at least one or two Bodhi's out that way who decide to go get wet.


_________________
No :heart: for supporting trump. Because doing so is deplorable.


ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,419
Location: Long Island, New York

13 Sep 2023, 10:03 am

Bryon Norcross Hurricane Expert:

Quote:
HURRICANE LEE UPDATE: ODDS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE LEE IN NEW ENGLAND ARE INCREASING

There are two camps in the computer forecasts. One group takes the center of Hurricane Lee far enough away from New England that the heavy rain and winds gusting to hurricane force would brush Cape Cod, which sticks out into the ocean, but less impactful conditions would occur over the mainland. The other group brings brutal heavy rain and damaging winds over the I-95 corridor from southeastern Massachusetts to the northeastern part of Maine, which is called Downeast Maine.

In the scenario where Lee’s center of circulation comes reasonably close to the New England coast, gusty north and northwest winds strong enough to do some damage and knock out power could also affect part of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and the eastern half of Long Island, New York.

This storm is an extreme example of a time you do NOT want to look at the forecast cone to determine what areas are threatened. Winds of 40 mph or higher are forecast to extend west some 250 miles from the Lee’s center. Besides the potential effect on land, the large-diameter storm will put a tremendous amount of energy in the Western Atlantic Ocean, and the wind will direct that energy toward the coast.

The cone can be misleading in terms of the storm’s track as well. The evidence from the computer forecasts is that Lee will make slight jog toward land when it’s in the vicinity of New England, which the cone doesn’t capture. So don’t be surprise by a slightly S-shaped track.

On the current schedule, the intense surge of ocean energy will reach the Mid-Atlantic waters – nominally from North Carolina to Long Island, New York – on Friday. Then on Saturday, an even stronger surge of energy reaches the Gulf of Maine – from Cape Cod to Downeast Maine. Atlantic Canada impacts come Saturday as well.

Extra-large, hurricane-powered waves will pound the coast with extremely strong undertows from swells emanating from the storm. Beach erosion and damage to exposed areas are possible. In New England, if the storm tracks close enough, storm surge will be a major threat in Cape Cod Bay and along the coast to the north. Harbors and inlets are especially vulnerable.

Marine interests will be at particular risk from Lee. Preparation in threatened areas should begin today.

On the current schedule, the winds will pick up by late Friday in southeastern New England. Strong winds and rain arrive overnight. The peak of the storm is Saturday. Sunday the winds die down, and the system is past by Sunday afternoon. Impacts occur a little later in Maine and Atlantic Canada.

The conditions and threats will vary across the region. The ground is saturated, and streams are full in many locations, so Lee’s rain could cause significant flooding. Seek out local emergency information and watch out for National Weather Service or Environment Canada warnings issued for your area.


_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity

It is Autism Acceptance Month

“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman


goldfish21
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 17 Feb 2013
Age: 41
Gender: Male
Posts: 22,612
Location: Vancouver, BC, Canada

13 Sep 2023, 11:28 am

Are there also divided camps on the number and distribution of new cancer cases caused by all the windmill noise? :?


_________________
No :heart: for supporting trump. Because doing so is deplorable.


ASPartOfMe
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 25 Aug 2013
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 34,419
Location: Long Island, New York

14 Sep 2023, 4:11 am

National Hurricane Center

Quote:
KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are
beginning to impact Bermuda, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for the island.

2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova
Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for that
area. Heavy rainfall in these areas may produce localized urban
and small stream flooding from Friday night into Saturday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere across New England
and Atlantic Canada within the Tropical Storm Watch areas.

3. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding
in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and
Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a Storm Surge Watch is
in effect.


_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity

It is Autism Acceptance Month

“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman