Are we at the edge of another pandemic? H5N1

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I came across an analysis of the current H5N1 pre-pandemic that is spreading across the U.S.

After a relatively quiet fall, there’s been another spike in cases of bird flu in Michigan.

When state officials announced on Dec. 16, 2024, that bird flu had been found in another poultry facility in Ottawa County, it was the first time the H5N1 virus had been detected in Michigan poultry in over six months. Since then, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed seven more outbreaks – in five commercial and two backyard flocks – in the state, the most recent in Oakland County.

Meanwhile, on Jan. 6, 2025, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported the first human death from bird flu in the U.S., in Louisiana.

Bird flu is a complex and evolving disease with significant impact to the poultry and dairy industries. Almost 11 million birds and more than 900 cattle herds have been affected nationwide. A significant number of wild animals – such as raccoon, skunks, foxes and bobcats – as well as marine mammals, has also died from the virus, as have domestic cats.

We’ve learned, based on sequencing the circulating viruses, that there is a specific virus strain or H5N1 genotype, B3.13, circulating in cows and poultry. Subtle changes over time in the genetic makeup of the virus points to a single spillover event. This means the virus likely spread from wild birds to a cow in Texas, and then spread from cow to cow. We also know that there is a separate H5N1 genotype, D1.1, that is currently circulating in wild birds and domestic poultry.

Influenza viruses affect many animals including humans, pigs, dogs and horses.

There are four types of influenza viruses: A, B, C and D, which are loosely defined by the species they can infect. Avian influenza viruses are considered influenza A viruses. Interestingly, influenza D viruses are the ones that primarily infect cattle. But the current H5N1 circulating in dairy cattle is the same influenza A virus as seen in the ongoing outbreak in birds.

This is of particular concern, as only influenza A viruses have been associated with human pandemics.

Source: Bird flu flares up again in Michigan poultry – an infectious disease expert explains the risk to humans, chickens, cows and other animals

One More Thing........

I do not know for sure but it might be very important to control the exposure rate.
In other words, not just Eliminate the Threat, but rather control the Exposure Rate.
In other words, become exposed but keep the exposure to a minimum.
In other words, keep the level below the Point of No Return.

In the case of COVID, a person became infected when their bodies had reached a level of around 50 active COVID cells present in the human body at any given point in time. This was an airborne threat. The thing about COVID was that virus cells could remain in an indoor setting for several days before they became inactive.

That is why even to this day I have not gotten COVID, nor my wife, nor most of my children or their children. I limited our exposure rate. During COVID after the end of March 2020, I had figured out how to protect myself and my family and implemented the method to protect myself. It was a 3 step Scientific process. And it worked. During the early days when everyone was hiding at home, I was up and about. I went shopping, ate out in restaurants, went to watch the latest movies in movie theaters. I knew the steps to keep safe and implemented those steps. Remember the vaccine was not available until the beginning of 2021.

But H5N1 is an entirely different threat. It is transmitted from person to person by direct blood to blood transfer by a transmission agent (INSECTS) The H5N1 threat is very similar to that from H1N1 that produced the pandemic of 1918.

So maybe the same approach will work for an entirely different virus, the H5N1 virus. In other words, limit the amount of insect bites (primarily infected mosquitoes). The human body may be able to get bitten by one or two times from an infected insect and build up an immunity. But being bitten by many, many infected insects in a short period of time may be fatal.

I came across an article that highlights one of the most important characteristics of the deadly form of H5N1.
the virus spreads rapidly and kills quickly

Although highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (commonly known as the bird flu), has been a public health concern for years, recent developments have heightened media attention and public awareness. In 2024, 66 people in the United States were diagnosed with H5N1 bird flu resulting from animal to human exposures (there have been no cases of human-to-human exposure). In most cases, symptoms were mild. On January 6, 2025, however, a Louisiana resident died from their infection marking the first H5N1 bird flu death of the current outbreak in the United States.

The wild bird H5N1 genotype was found in both the Louisiana patient who died after exposure to a sick backyard poultry flock, and a Canadian teen who was hospitalized in November. It appears that this genotype could be more hazardous to humans and is also dangerous to other animals.

The disease is widespread amongst bird populations nation-wide, making it essential that the public understands best practices on how to prevent spread of this potentially deadly disease.

The natural reservoir of H5N1 are wild waterfowl like ducks and geese. Wild waterfowl migrate around the globe and can infect some other species of animals. Once introduced within domestic poultry flocks, the virus spreads rapidly and kills quickly, hence the name “highly pathogenic avian influenza”.

Source: H5N1 Bird Flu: Understanding the Risk

An article published on 14 January 2025 discussed the threat from H1N1 (otherwise known as the Spanish Flu of 1918), the threat that this very deadly diseases might be used as a type of global weapon to destroy most of the human race.

The article was from Henry I. Miller, MS, MD

Spanish Flu Killed 50 Million. Terrorists Can Now Create Synthetic Version of the Virus.

A university professor and two students recreated a virus identical to the one that caused the devastating 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. If they can do it, so can terrorists.

Most people probably associate terrorist attacks with the 9/11 airplane hijackings or the Boston Marathon bombings, but bioterrorism is also a real and growing threat. That was brought home vividly by a fascinating, and terrifying, real-world experiment by an MIT professor and two of his students who re-created a virus identical to the one that caused the devastating 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. During that outbreak, an estimated 500 million people worldwide — one-third of the world’s population at the time — were infected and nearly 50 million died.

The experiment, which was conducted by two graduate students of MIT Media Lab Professor Kevin Esvelt under the supervision of the FBI, reveals the vulnerability of the current system. The students found that it is “surprisingly easy, even when ordering gene fragments from companies that check customers’ orders to detect hazardous sequences.”

Both the genome sequences of pandemic viruses and step-by-step protocols to make infectious samples from synthetic DNA are now freely available online. That makes it essential to ensure that all synthetic DNA orders are screened to determine whether they contain hazardous sequences that should be shipped only to legitimate researchers whose work has been approved by a biosafety authority.

Terrorists are ingenious and respect no boundaries. Although it was not so long ago, few Americans remember the worst bioweapon attack in U.S. history: After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, letters containing anthrax bacteria began to appear in various parts of the U.S., killing 5 and sickening 17. It created a national scare, with concerns of a larger "attack."

To test the effectiveness of current biosecurity practices, the two grad students, overseen by the FBI, conducted a ”red-teaming” experiment. Red-teaming actively tests vulnerabilities in the security infrastructure -- in this case, for screening DNA sequence acquisition and the capabilities of AI tools. It has been used effectively to test cybersecurity, for example, by having ethical hackers emulate malicious attackers’ tactics and techniques against computer security systems.

The article describes the method used to create and manufacture H1N1.

Bird Flu is affecting many different regions of the world. Take for example Japan.

Japan is experiencing a surge of avian influenza outbreaks, with approximately 5 million chickens and other birds culled (killed) across five prefectures this month.

In total, 26 outbreak sites have been identified this month, with nearly 5 million birds impacted.

The ministry warned that the outbreaks showed no signs of slowing and the situation may worsen.

Source: Japan's bird flu cases surge in January

It is in my area.

Over 100,000 birds euthanized at Long Island farm to contain bird flu outbreak

More than 134 million birds have been affected since the outbreak began in January 2022, killing more than 20 million egg-laying hens in the fall of 2024 alone, out of the roughly 520 million total farmed chickens in the U.S. Speaking to CNN, American Egg Board CEO Emily said that it could take up to nine months to replace flocks killed by the virus. In the meantime, grocery stores across the U.S. have struggled to keep shelves stocked, while the average price for a dozen eggs has risen from $2.71 in June 2024, to $4.14 in December 2024, the last month for which data tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is available.

Source: East Coast Farms Continue to Battle Bird Flu Outbreak

It is a bird pandemic that is killing off the chickens in the U.S. and now it is affecting the cows. It is moving up the various species and might soon begin a massive die off in humans.

Bird Flu continues to spread across birds in the U.S. This time Connecticut.

With a recent confirmation of bird flu in CT, should people worry?

Last week, bird flu was confirmed in a backyard flock located in New London County, according to the Connecticut Department of Agriculture. The backyard flock consisted of chickens, ducks, and peacocks that were family pets, not commercial poultry, and had close contact with wild birds in a nearby pond, officials said. The announcement is the state’s first positive confirmation of the virus.

Three days ago they were talking about Georgia.

Bird flu: First case found in a Georgia poultry plant

Bird flu has been found in every state in the U.S. But until last week, it had not been found in a commercial poultry plant in Georgia. The state is the nation's largest producer of poultry.

"This is a serious threat to Georgia’s #1 industry and the livelihoods of thousands of Georgians who make their living in our state’s poultry industry," Tyler Harper, state agriculture commissioner, said in a statement.

More cases are also showing up in Michigan.

Bird flu flares up again in Michigan poultry – an infectious disease expert explains the risk to humans, chickens, cows and other animals

When state officials announced on Dec. 16, 2024, that bird flu had been found in another poultry facility in Ottawa County, it was the first time the H5N1 virus had been detected in Michigan poultry in over six months. Since then, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed seven more outbreaks – in five commercial and two backyard flocks – in the state, the most recent in Oakland County.

We probably should not forget an outbreak in Illinois.

Bird flu Illinois: Latest cases and what you should know as virus spreads

The spread comes amid a "concerning" new mutation in bird flu that may indicate the virus could begin to more easily infect humans. A number of bird flu cases have been reported in the Chicago area in recent weeks, leading to many questions about how quickly the virus is spreading and how worried residents should be. The spread comes amid a "concerning" new mutation in bird flu that may indicate the virus could begin to more easily infect humans.

We probably should not forget New York.

Over 100,000 birds euthanized at Long Island farm to contain bird flu outbreak

Over 100,000 birds were euthanized at a poultry (duck) farm on Long Island to prevent the spread of bird flu. Suffolk County Department of Health officials confirmed on Wednesday the detection of bird flu at a farm in Suffolk County.

I guess we should not exclude Maryland.

Bird Flu (H5N1) has been around for a couple years in my state of Indiana. It has produced a massive die off in all types of wild birds. My local newspaper (Greene County Daily World) had an article yesterday that provides insight into how this bird flu is affecting Indiana.

The Indiana Department of Natural Resources (DNR) confirmed highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) as the cause of death in the waterfowl in Gibson County in December and suspects HPAI as the cause of waterfowl deaths in Allen, Benton, Hamilton, Lake, LaPorte, Newton, Pike, Porter, Starke, Tippecanoe and Vermillion counties over the last six weeks.

Most waterfowl species affected are snow geese and Canada geese, but Indiana DNR has also noted deaths in mute swans, tundra swans, mallards, American white pelicans, common goldeneyes and double crested cormorants.

Signs of HPAI in waterfowl include:
* Sudden Death
* Neurological impairment (e.g., lack of coordination, swimming in circles, tremors, twisted neck)
* Lack of energy and appetite
* Swelling of the head, neck, and eyes
* Nasal discharge, cough, sneezing, lack of coordination, and diarrhea.

I came across a bit of historical information about H5N1 otherwise known as Bird Flu.

What Are the Earliest Known Origins of Bird Flu?

Bird flu, or avian influenza, might seem like a relatively new phenomenon to the general public. But the disease, technically called Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), has been sickening birds since the 1800s, and likely much longer. And in humans, cases date at least as back to the 1918 flu pandemic. If scientists could have surveyed wastewater hundreds of years ago, they might have found it had been circulating for much longer.

Understanding the history of bird flu can help reveal potential risks for a future pandemic, says Catharine Paules, an infectious diseases physician at Penn State Health Milton S. Hershey Medical Center. “I always tell people that influenza worries me the most in terms of the risk of causing a pandemic,” Paules says.

1878: 'Fowl Plague' Detected in Poultry

In 1878, a veterinarian in northern Italy noted a significant uptick in poultry dying. With a limited understanding of viruses at the time, people called the disease “fowl plague.” At first, it was confused with “fowl cholera,” which is caused by a bacteria. At the time, concern centered on people’s livelihoods, not on human health, explains Andrea Prinzi, a former clinical microbiologist at Children's Hospital Colorado. In the 19th century, the disease could spell financial ruin for a poultry farmer. “They weren’t necessarily as concerned it would infect humans,” says Prinzi, who also serves as a field medical director of U.S. Medical Affairs for bioMérieux, Inc., a biotechnology company.

1901: Bird Flu Identified as a Virus

By 1901, scientists had identified the cause of “fowl plague” as a virus. They were able to do this by observing its ability to pass through a filter (viruses are significantly smaller than bacteria and so can pass more easily). The disease eventually spread to eastern Austria and Germany, and later to Belgium and France, likely through traveling poultry merchants.

1918 Pandemic, Later Linked to Avian Flu

Amid the devastation and disruption of World War I, a flu pandemic surged, claiming more lives than battles did. The first “well-described flu pandemic,” according to Paules, resulted in about 50-100 million lives worldwide. “That strain was really good at making the healthiest people in the population the sickest; the immune response was so severe,” Prinzi says. Technology later determined the virus to be “an avian-like” H1N1 virus.

I had previously written

This virus has been evolving over the past few years. It began with birds and spread to animals and humans. The disease is passing across a maze of viruses in recent years including H5N1, H5N2, H5N3, H5N5, H5N6 and H5N8. But in my opinion the primary threat is H1N1.

But it sounds like I need to add one more to the list, H5N9.

An article today in Reuters news stated:

The United States reported a first outbreak of H5N9 bird flu on a poultry farm, the World Organisation for Animal Health said on Monday. Highly pathogenic avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, has spread around the globe in the past years, leading to the culling of hundreds of millions of poultry.

Another article makes the following statement about this strain:

Evolutionary analysis showed that the hemagglutinin gene of the novel H5N9 virus originated from A/Muscovy duck/Vietnam/LBM227/2012 (H5N1), which belongs to clade 2.3.2.1. The neuraminidase gene of the novel H5N9 virus originated from human-infective A/Hangzhou/1/2013 (H7N9). The six internal genes were similar to those of other H5N1, H7N9, and H9N2 virus strains. The virus harbored the PQRERRRKR/GL motif characteristic of highly pathogenic AIVs at the HA cleavage site. Receptor-binding experiments demonstrated that the virus binds α-2,3 sialic acid but not α-2,6 sialic acid.

Source: Journal of Virology

I came across another articles about H5N9. This disease appears to be very deadly to poultry.

How are H5N9 and H5N1 different? What to know after California bird flu outbreak

A California duck farm made headlines this week after the World Organization of Animal Health published a report by U.S. authorities that a strain of bird flu that scientists call H5N9 had been found among sick birds in the flock.

This is far from the first time that H5N9 has been found in birds around the country. But the U.S. Department of Agriculture said it was the first time that H5N9 had been found in American poultry sick with "highly pathogenic avian influenza," meaning it caused severe disease.

"Clinical signs included increased mortality.

Tests identify H5N9 avian flu at California duck farm

Both H5N9 and H5N1 were detected at the duck farm in Merced County, according to tests conducted by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratory. The event began on November 23, with clinical signs that included increased deaths in the ducks.

State officials quarantined the affected farm, and a culling operation of the facility's nearly 119,000 birds was completed on December 2.

Angela Rasmussen, PhD, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, said on X today that the H5N9 detection suggests reassortment of circulating H5N1 viruses with avian flu virus that contains the N9 neuraminidase (NA). She added that replication in coinfected hosts can produce unpredictable new reassortant viruses.

She said ducks don't get very sick from many avian flu, which can make them great hosts for reassortant viruses. Since they can still fly, eat, and mingle while infected, they can transmit the reassortant virus to new hosts, with the virus continuing to adapt along the way.

She emphasized that its crucial to keep H5N1 out of pigs, given that they are susceptible to human and other flu viruses, including reassortants.

In other words, as the virus moves from birds to animals it is crossing many different types. Once it makes the transition to infecting pigs, the next species is humans.