Will this go on forever ?

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chris1989
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10 May 2021, 3:43 pm

I know in my country (the UK) has a positive decline in virus cases and a great vaccine program, I do still get upset and worried when there is still other people saying things may get worse if we let our guard down. I struggle to conjure a scene of how life looks like with less virus around but is still there. A part of me is catastrophising thinking this year will be a repeat of last year even though over 35 million people out of the country's 66 million have been vaccinated and there are still another 30 million more to go. I am hearing about concerns from other people about variants stopping vaccines from working such as the one from India. I feel like my mind is all over the place, if only I could see into the future, but then I don't know if that would of made it any different or reassured me more. I'm always thinking this virus will be hard to control and overcome and like the vicious cycle is going to keep repeating itself, going up then coming down and then going back up again and it goes on.



kraftiekortie
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10 May 2021, 4:54 pm

This COVID thing IS getting much better in the UK. One day last week, there was only ONE death from COVID throughout the whole of the UK.

We average maybe 40,000 cases and 700 deaths per day in the US----and we're opening up pretty rapidly.



chris1989
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10 May 2021, 6:25 pm

It just seems like vaccines are giving people a sense of hope that normality will return soon, it makes me feel like I want to weep when there are experts saying this is something we will be living with for a long time to come, as though it implies that we have to live our lives in a heightened state of alert for the virus and that it will be a fact of life.



kraftiekortie
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10 May 2021, 7:35 pm

I'm pretty sure things will get better soon.

We, in New York City, if we are fully vaccinated, don't have to wear masks outdoors any longer.



chris1989
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10 May 2021, 9:42 pm

I hope, I mean before we now have vaccines last year, people were worrying that a vaccine would take 18 months to make or years.



IsabellaLinton
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10 May 2021, 11:13 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
I'm pretty sure things will get better soon.

We, in New York City, if we are fully vaccinated, don't have to wear masks outdoors any longer.


People who are vaccinated can still carry Covid on their person or in their breath, and transmit it to others who may not be vaccinated. I feel sorry for people who aren't vaccinated for whatever reason, having to take that risk.

I think it's OK to stop the mask laws if the numbers indicate a major or near-complete elimination, but not just because "most" people are vaccinated.



Joe90
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11 May 2021, 2:16 am

Having COVID around is fine if the vaccines will prevent high numbers of hospitalisations and death and can be varied each year to suit new strains of the virus effectively. After all, COVID won't be a "new virus" forever and as well as vaccines there will be immunity built up too.

Think of the flu. Although we have vaccines for flu every year for the vulnerable, there will still always be SOME hospitalisations and SOME deaths from flu. And the flu virus varies too, but a lot of us are still immune to different strains otherwise we would all be getting flu every year. But life goes on, with or without flu going around. So same will be with COVID.

A few years ago I knew a 25-year-old girl with no underlying health problems who got the flu and had to be hospitalised because she developed pneumonia and was in intensive care for 2 weeks. Luckily she survived but it was scary for her at the time. But despite this small chance everyone has, do we all wear masks and shut ourselves away every flu season? No. Would we have to if there was no such thing as flu vaccines? I don't know...


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Mona Pereth
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11 May 2021, 4:14 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
I'm pretty sure things will get better soon.

We, in New York City, if we are fully vaccinated, don't have to wear masks outdoors any longer.

I think masks should continue to be required on busses and subways, and at large gatherings, until COVID is under control worldwide.


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bottleblank
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11 May 2021, 7:19 am

I don't know if I'm trying to convince you or myself in posting this, but things will get back to normal.

Further removal of restrictions is happening here in the UK on the 17th of May, and it seems we're on track for the 21st of June to be the removal of most of the rest of the restrictions. The future of mask use is unclear, but that won't be mandatory forever either.

But as has been mentioned in this thread, vaccines are up and continuing apace, cases and deaths are down, this trend will almost certainly continue.

Even if for some reason it doesn't, life simply cannot continue the way it has been (lockdowns, constant fear and prevention measures, etc), at some point we have to accept that viruses exist and will sometimes infect people. I wouldn't worry too much about that though, as there's no real reason to think this is an issue we're currently experiencing.

We should be clear of this in a few months, hang in there, at some point we'll look back on this as a bad memory and not something we're still living through.



badRobot
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11 May 2021, 9:32 am

bottleblank wrote:
I don't know if I'm trying to convince you or myself in posting this, but things will get back to normal.

Further removal of restrictions is happening here in the UK on the 17th of May, and it seems we're on track for the 21st of June to be the removal of most of the rest of the restrictions. The future of mask use is unclear, but that won't be mandatory forever either.


This is actually what makes me more concerned. If we would vaccinate as many people as possible and keep restrictions for a while, we would have a chance to eliminate the virus completely.

Rush it lift restrictions while there are still many unvaccinated people mixed with vaccinated, providing enough room for virus to breed and mutate to variant not affected by vaccines might lead to the same situation again.



kraftiekortie
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11 May 2021, 9:55 am

Buses and subways are not "outdoors." You're not in the street when you take the bus or subway.

I still wear a mask on buses and subways.

I am fully vaccinated. Plus, I had COVID last year. Plus, I have many negative tests.

I don't feel like I'm putting people at risk when I walk in a residential street without a mask in my neighborhood. I hardly ever come within six feet of a person. If I go into a store, I wear a mask.



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11 May 2021, 10:28 am

Joe90 wrote:
Having COVID around is fine if the vaccines will prevent high numbers of hospitalisations and death and can be varied each year to suit new strains of the virus effectively. After all, COVID won't be a "new virus" forever and as well as vaccines there will be immunity built up too.

Think of the flu. Although we have vaccines for flu every year for the vulnerable, there will still always be SOME hospitalisations and SOME deaths from flu. And the flu virus varies too, but a lot of us are still immune to different strains otherwise we would all be getting flu every year. But life goes on, with or without flu going around. So same will be with COVID.

A few years ago I knew a 25-year-old girl with no underlying health problems who got the flu and had to be hospitalised because she developed pneumonia and was in intensive care for 2 weeks. Luckily she survived but it was scary for her at the time. But despite this small chance everyone has, do we all wear masks and shut ourselves away every flu season? No. Would we have to if there was no such thing as flu vaccines? I don't know...


This!

Of course, new variants can push things back a little, but eventually, they'll be dealt with, too. I'd say that right now, the biggest risks in places like USA and most of Europe are people dropping their guard too early (stopping wearing masks, being more relaxed about hand hygiene, meeting in big groups etc.) leading to mass infections, and people coming from countries where the situation is a lot worse and not going in to quarantine properly.



kraftiekortie
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11 May 2021, 10:32 am

The flu does not cause nearly as many hospitalizations and deaths as COVID does.

COVID is a much more serious disease than most flus at this point.

No, I'm not propagandizing. I'm speaking truth.



bottleblank
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12 May 2021, 7:10 am

badRobot wrote:
bottleblank wrote:
I don't know if I'm trying to convince you or myself in posting this, but things will get back to normal.

Further removal of restrictions is happening here in the UK on the 17th of May, and it seems we're on track for the 21st of June to be the removal of most of the rest of the restrictions. The future of mask use is unclear, but that won't be mandatory forever either.


This is actually what makes me more concerned. If we would vaccinate as many people as possible and keep restrictions for a while, we would have a chance to eliminate the virus completely.

Rush it lift restrictions while there are still many unvaccinated people mixed with vaccinated, providing enough room for virus to breed and mutate to variant not affected by vaccines might lead to the same situation again.


I understand feeling a need for caution and wanting as many vaccinated as possible before lifting all the restrictions, but we're doing pretty well so far, and last summer we found that even with places being opened back up and people going and doing things, it's just not as much of a risk as it is in winter.

Beyond that, I realise it won't be summer forever, it won't be long before it's autumn/winter again, but by that point many more people will have been vaccinated (hopefully more or less all adults, if not some children too). There must come a time when we consider it "good enough", because "zero COVID" isn't a realistic benchmark to assign to getting back to normal. It's spread so substantially that, especially in countries less able to vaccinate, it's not going to totally go away.

There will be variants, there will be people who haven't been able to get vaccinated, there will be cases which are missed when tests are given to ensure travel safety. But these, at least in the UK, should be minimal as long as the vaccines are effective.



badRobot
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12 May 2021, 7:26 am

bottleblank wrote:
I understand feeling a need for caution and wanting as many vaccinated as possible before lifting all the restrictions, but we're doing pretty well so far, and last summer we found that even with places being opened back up and people going and doing things, it's just not as much of a risk as it is in winter.

Beyond that, I realise it won't be summer forever, it won't be long before it's autumn/winter again, but by that point many more people will have been vaccinated (hopefully more or less all adults, if not some children too). There must come a time when we consider it "good enough", because "zero COVID" isn't a realistic benchmark to assign to getting back to normal. It's spread so substantially that, especially in countries less able to vaccinate, it's not going to totally go away.

There will be variants, there will be people who haven't been able to get vaccinated, there will be cases which are missed when tests are given to ensure travel safety. But these, at least in the UK, should be minimal as long as the vaccines are effective.


A lot of epidemiologists believe situation of mixing vaccinated and unvaccinated people + lifting restrictions is the perfect environment for variants not affected by vaccines to emerge. This is a different type of risk. General public, most governments and politicians don't understand that. This is what is really concerning. If we don't keep restrictions for a while after all people are vaccinated, it was probably all for nothing.

Variants not affected by vaccine will inevitably emerge, we should not let them spread, as we should have not let the virus spread in the first place. Now when we are lifting restrictions too early, it's pretty much the same situation as it was in the beginning.



bottleblank
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12 May 2021, 7:47 am

badRobot wrote:
A lot of epidemiologists believe situation of mixing vaccinated and unvaccinated people + lifting restrictions is the perfect environment for variants not affected by vaccines to emerge. This is a different type of risk. General public, most governments and politicians don't understand that. This is what is really concerning. If we don't keep restrictions for a while after all people are vaccinated, it was probably all for nothing.

Variants not affected by vaccine will inevitably emerge, we should not let them spread, as we should have not let the virus spread in the first place. Now when we are lifting restrictions too early, it's pretty much the same situation as it was in the beginning.


But if the risk during summer is very low, and we're still vaccinating at a pace which means we should have most people who are in groups approved for vaccination by the end of summer, that seems to me as though it wouldn't differ substantially from locking down from here until September.

I have heard that concern expressed, that mixing vaccinated and unvaccinated people may provoke more vaccine-resistant strains to form and spread in response to evolutionary pressure. But I don't see there being a significant risk of that with the current timeline that wouldn't continue to be similar in months from now when summer is over. At some point we just have to hope for the best and get on with things. There's very likely going to be unvaccinated people, and travellers from countries where COVID is still rampant (even with testing before travel), so there will continue to be a risk of variants forming... forever, essentially, unless we eradicate it from the entire planet, which is very unlikely (especially in the short term, but likely long term too).