Prof_Pretorius wrote:
Nymeria8 wrote:
Drake-Sagan Formula
The Drake formula is absolute rubbish. People plug in numbers they made up. As I have pointed out, we have no way of estimating how a civilization could reach the "Star Trek" level. To conjure up numbers to that effect is self delusion.
In short, there ia absolutely no way to estimate the number of space traversing civilizations.
Imagine planets full of intelligent life, but their world has few metals and everything has to be made of wood.
Or planets full of intelligent life that lacked the ingredients for gun powder, and stalled out in the equivalent of our Middle Ages.
Since we have not yet accomplished anything like it, imagine earth like planets full of squabbling tribes who spend eons doing nothing but trying to exterminate each other.
Its not either-or. Its the problem of how many civilizations are out there AND what kind.
The last one is a bad example. We already have one earth-like planet populated by squabbling tribes who have been trying to exterminate each other for eons. And it has not stopped us at all!. In fact warfare is a major factor in speeding up technological progress.
But there is a real problem. That being that IF there were other earthlike planets they would most likely all be "water worlds".
They would have no dry land. It would be all ocean. Earth was an oddball that escaped that fate and has alternating ocean and land because of odd reasons having to do with the moon forming- or ateast thats the latest theory.
Thus all life would be marine life. Such a planet might evelve intellgent marine creatures-even ones with opposable thumbs who used stone tools.
But since they lived in the sea- these creatures could never domesticate fire. No fire means no metalurgy. No metalurgy means no radio telescopes, no rockets, and no modern technolog every evolving even after thousands of years.
So water world creatures could compose epic poems that put the illiad and the oddyssy to shame. But they could never hear our old broadcasts of Milton Berle when said broadcasts hit their planet.