Why do meteorologists, lie, they promised rain that is not

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pawelk1986
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22 Jul 2014, 2:58 pm

I'm from Wroclaw in Poland, we have a record heat over 45 ° C, our meteorologists promised a thunderstorm, which was not. Meteorologists are worse than liars and greedy for the money Polish politicians :D



Girlwithaspergers
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22 Jul 2014, 3:14 pm

Their science isn't always exact.


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Humanaut
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22 Jul 2014, 3:17 pm

The weather is often an unpredictable phenomenon. They're probably doing the best they can.



Azereiah
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22 Jul 2014, 3:18 pm

As far as I can tell, they don't lie.
"80% chance of rain" doesn't mean "It will rain", for instance.

Any good meteorologist will look at things like humidity, barometric pressure, cloud movements, etc. and make an estimate based on that, and they'll generally avoid saying "It will happen" unless it already is happening.



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22 Jul 2014, 3:31 pm

Azereiah wrote:
As far as I can tell, they don't lie.
"80% chance of rain" doesn't mean "It will rain", for instance.

Any good meteorologist will look at things like humidity, barometric pressure, butt movements, etc. and make an estimate based on that, and they'll generally avoid saying "It will happen" unless it already is happening.


this damn chrome extension changed "cloud" to "butt" and I laughed so hard...

Weather is often unpredictable, meteorologists at best have a general idea of what might happen.


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CockneyRebel
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22 Jul 2014, 5:09 pm

The same happened where I live. My part of the world was promised heavy rain over the weekend and we only got a few sprinkles.


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22 Jul 2014, 5:28 pm

Weather systems are by their very nature chaotic and this makes them very hard to predict with any accuracy. Just slight changes in the weather system at one point can trigger major changes elsewhere. Meteorologists around the world are all as inaccurate as each other.


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Engineerbj
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24 Jul 2014, 1:43 am

The old saying of "Don't shoot, I'm just the messenger," comes to mind. The weather-forecasters aren't necessarily lying, per se, they're just making inaccurate forecasts, which is hardly surprising since Earth's weather is a dynamic, constantly changing, system. It doesn't run on rails to a schedule, it can change in an instant, in every which way, so accurate prediction is, to say the least, a bit difficult. This problem has, in my opinion, gotten worse with the advent of computer prediction of the forecasts, for the systems seem to tripped up easier by sudden shifts in the weather pattern, or conditions that don't meet with the software's rules for how things are 'supposed' to work.

In general, I find modern weather forecasts to be good for only 2-3 days in advance, and if the atmosphere and weather is particularly unstable this gets cut down to a matter of hours, and this is when the forecast isn't wrong entirely, which is why I've taken to mounting a barometer on my wall next to the thermometer and having a go at it myself. I don't just look at the gauges, though, I look at how the wind's going, what the clouds up in the sky look like, what the humidity is, essentially the sorts of stuff our grandfathers did when they wanted to have a go at figuring out what the weather was going to do. A good book if you're interested in this DIY approach is "Man Vs. Weather" by Dennis Diclaudio, it's a handy and practical guide to being your own weatherman/woman.

Of course, if you do it yourself and make a bad call, then you've got nobody to blame but yourself...



Kiriae
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24 Jul 2014, 4:23 pm

pawelk1986 wrote:
I'm from Wroclaw in Poland, we have a record heat over 45 ° C, our meteorologists promised a thunderstorm, which was not. Meteorologists are worse than liars and greedy for the money Polish politicians :D

Liar!
It's wasn't 45 ° C, it was 28-35 ° C (depending where exactly you live) but not more. If your thermometer said more then you measured it in the sun (there was 51 ° C in sun in my place). But you can't do that. It is just incorrect way. So you are a liar!

Got the hidden message? :)

Anyway. A thunderstorm is not something meteorologist can "promise". They can predict it but except the times when huge MCSes occur (and even then the prediction is valid only for a few hours after the MCS apears) they cannot say for 100% there is going to be a thunderstorm in so small area as a city.
TV weather forecast can just say there should be rain/thunderstorm in an area as huge as a state. That's all. And even then they can be wrong since public TV prediction rate just sucks. You might try http://www.meteo.pl/ for more specific precognitions but while it got nice prediction rate (about 75% for rain predictions for next 24h) there is still no way to say there will be a thunderstorm.



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28 Jul 2014, 1:20 am

The meteorologists should quit their jobs here in central Florida especially during the summer, it rains whenever it wants here and every weather model seems to be wrong almost all the time unless the rain is from a cold front. I seem to get a pattern with rain chances though that they never notice. if it's 0 to 20% it won't rain, if it's 30 to 50% it will probably rain, if it's 60% or above the rain will either be without lightning and light compared to summer storms or it will fail to rain because storms in the ocean have destroyed most instability and there is just cloudy skies.



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03 Aug 2014, 11:42 pm

Azereiah wrote:
As far as I can tell, they don't lie.
"80% chance of rain" doesn't mean "It will rain", for instance.
I think the wording invulving the word "chance" that meteorologist use is different than the general public understanding & meaning. I'm originally from south Louisiana & during the summer when I was a kid whatever percent chance of rain they gave meant it will rain that percent of the day. It rained most of the day on 80% chance, half the day of 50% & only a for a couple hours when told 10%. chance.


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khaoz
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04 Aug 2014, 1:15 am

I heard a television Meteorologist offer the following explanation. When the weather person says' There is a 80% chance of this or that, what he/she is really saying is that there is a 100% probability of whatever weather, in 80% of the area being discussed, but they never specify which 80% they are referring to. If any of that makes any sense..