Graph of previous partners and likelihood of stable marriage

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Keeno
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16 Dec 2010, 7:25 am

I've just come across this. It shows just how likely one is to be in a stable marriage (and conversely, how likely one is to get divorced) after 10 years of marriage.

I admit it held no shock value for me, but I know it did do for a lot of people on another forum.

According to this, men who want a long term monogamous relationship pretty much have to have it with a highly religious woman who's chaste before marriage, as unless a woman has had no previous sexual partners or at the very most one, you're more likely to be divorced after 10 years than remain married.

This, folks, is the extent of unabashed infidelity nowadays.

It's from a study done by the National Council on Family Relations.

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SuperApsie
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16 Dec 2010, 9:02 am

Quote:
I admit it held no shock value for me, but I know it did do for a lot of people on another forum.

Did you read the study and looked for who made it?

Quote:
According to this, men who want a long term monogamous relationship pretty much have to have it with a highly religious woman who's chaste before marriage, as unless a woman has had no previous sexual partners or at the very most one, you're more likely to be divorced after 10 years than remain married.

Bias, less than 50% of the people who were surveyed were religious to some extent. It's not certain that there is no religious people in the 50% or so of the couple that divorce.

Quote:
This, folks, is the extent of unabashed infidelity nowadays.

Where do you see infidelity? It's about pre-marital sex and divorce. No reason of the divorce (pretty strange though)

Quote:
It's from a study done by the National Council on Family Relations.

No, it was made by Jay Teachman, sociologist, at Western Washington University*. NCFR just published it.
http://www.ncfr.com/pdf/press_releases/ ... ELEAS2.pdf

*Seventh Day Adventists religious affiliation.
http://www.braintrack.com/college/u/walla-walla-college

And why is there no data at all about pre-marital sex for men in the very same study? Nothing!

I was just surprised that the study did not mention "God" or "Jesus". It's just another attempt, a abstinence 2.0, mashed up by a frustrated pick-up artist http://roissy.wordpress.com/page/9/ "Why Sluts Make Bad Wives" fantastic title btw. Perfect recipe for a statistical bias.

I would suggest another study: So are the muslims right to hide their woman under a burka? I'm sure we can find numbers for that study: No divorce in Saudi Arabia, what a perfect world it must be...


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Mindslave
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16 Dec 2010, 9:44 am

This is so biased it's not even funny. Personally, I can't marry a woman who is that much of a prude that she refuses to have sex before we get married. How am I supposed to be stuck for the rest of my life with a woman that might be horrible in bed and NOT be anxious about it? Stuck is the right word, because once you are married...that's it. You are stuck with her, and the only right you did have in your relationship is gone. Why two people would want to be stuck with each other forever is beyond my comprehension.



menintights
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16 Dec 2010, 10:10 am

So what happened to the stable rates of marriage that started with 1 partner and 1 virgin groom?

Anyway, "stable" doesn't mean "happy."

Quote:
http://roissy.wordpress.com/page/9/


I read some of the comments on the website and am sickened by the fact that some of these people are in fact in a relationship. And you wonder why I have trust issues.



MidlifeAspie
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16 Dec 2010, 11:37 am

The NCFR is an "Abstinence Only" organization whose only purpose is to keep kids from having sex. This "survey" was designed to that end.



starygrrl
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16 Dec 2010, 11:46 am

This study is BIASED. In fact there are scientific studies that CONTRADICT these results.

Want to know who has the lowest divorce rate. Not people who marry early in life to their first partner, they actually have the HIGHEST divorce rate. Rather people who marry later in life to a live in partner and often had previous relationships (and also college educations between both partners).

Look at the Time magazine marriage story, it was based on a scientific study and came out recently. It directly contradicts this.



billsmithglendale
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16 Dec 2010, 12:10 pm

I would be VERY careful about taking anything from the Heritage foundation without some, or a lot of, skepticism. Understand that they are more than just a conservative think tank --- they are practically a paid shill/PR for the conservative right/religious POV, as well as anything Republican. I have literally seen an interview with one of their top guys from 2004 where he said, with a straight face, that "...Corporate America barely affects national policy." :P 8O :roll: A blatant and cynical lie, if I have ever heard one, and a statement that undermined any credibility they might have.

Rest assured women who aren't religious are just as likely to be loyal and have long-term relationships. The real factors are the values that they were brought up under (which don't need to be tied to religion, my parents are atheist/agnostic and we learned real values as kids), their own experiences growing up, even luck of the draw (you reach a certain age where you want to be married, don't meet the right person, you settle, and then regret it), can affect one's chances of having a successful marriage.

And did that study at all take into consideration that certain segments of our population with other well-known issue are much more likely to skew the average as outliers in terms of families that aren't married and that have children out of wedlock? (I think specifically of African Americans, who currently have a 80% out-of-wedlock birth rate) Statistics need to be delved into further, you need to know more about the sample.



deadeyexx
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16 Dec 2010, 12:28 pm

I second that stable doesn't always mean happy. The folks with few partners may stick with marriage more because that's all they've known or thier traditional upbringing gives them few options. All the graph shows is that people are likely to cling to what's familiar.

Noticed the percentage shot up a bit at the 21+ mark. Maybe that takes into account people who wait to get married until they really understand what they're getting into.



SunConure
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16 Dec 2010, 12:36 pm

Quote:
And why is there no data at all about pre-marital sex for men in the very same study? Nothing!


I was going to complain about the same thing (and guess I still am). It makes no sense to try to pin all of this on women. A marriage consists of two people after all.



starygrrl
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16 Dec 2010, 12:37 pm

billsmithglendale wrote:
I would be VERY careful about taking anything from the Heritage foundation without some, or a lot of, skepticism. Understand that they are more than just a conservative think tank --- they are practically a paid shill/PR for the conservative right/religious POV, as well as anything Republican. I have literally seen an interview with one of their top guys from 2004 where he said, with a straight face, that "...Corporate America barely affects national policy." :P 8O :roll: A blatant and cynical lie, if I have ever heard one, and a statement that undermined any credibility they might have.

Rest assured women who aren't religious are just as likely to be loyal and have long-term relationships. The real factors are the values that they were brought up under (which don't need to be tied to religion, my parents are atheist/agnostic and we learned real values as kids), their own experiences growing up, even luck of the draw (you reach a certain age where you want to be married, don't meet the right person, you settle, and then regret it), can affect one's chances of having a successful marriage.

And did that study at all take into consideration that certain segments of our population with other well-known issue are much more likely to skew the average as outliers in terms of families that aren't married and that have children out of wedlock? (I think specifically of African Americans, who currently have a 80% out-of-wedlock birth rate) Statistics need to be delved into further, you need to know more about the sample.


On top of that one needs to take into account things such as class and education. Like I said, this study is not be trusted at all. If you want the real statistics on marriage look at the time magazine study...it was fantastic and done by a reputible source not trying to push an agenda, but rather understand society.



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16 Dec 2010, 12:59 pm

This has been said, but bears repeating. Consider the source of the information when you're attempting to assess the information's accuracy and possible value. This is quite obviously a right wing religious organization's attempt at rationalizing their particular dogma. It isn't even particularly Christian, as Jesus himself targeted his teachings at people who WERE promiscuous and said that anyone could be forgiven whatever they had done in the past. What would Jesus do? Not this survey I suspect.

This is a POLITICAL survey, not science. It's paid for by people in the Republican party who would like you to be outraged over the moral decline in America so you won't notice their corporation buddies are grinding every penny from you that they can by paying you less to do more work, and selling you stuff you don't really need and would probably be just as well off without.



SuperApsie
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16 Dec 2010, 2:15 pm

SunConure wrote:
Quote:
And why is there no data at all about pre-marital sex for men in the very same study? Nothing!


I was going to complain about the same thing (and guess I still am). It makes no sense to try to pin all of this on women. A marriage consists of two people after all.


I think it would completely change the conclusion, instead of the obvious appeal to the feelings: "woman are sluts" "the more they have partners the more likely they will fail their marriage because they are not sexually satisfied" etc... It is made to make the little boys scared and the little girls scared of the judgment of the scared boys. The author of the study is not a newbie, if there would have been such a thing like slutness, we would have seen a different study, men and reason for the divorce included.

The conclusion of a fair study including men would likely show: you have to take the first one, you can't try before you buy and once you have taken that chose one, you are stuck with it unless you want to make your god angry, and your marriage will last forever. Plus it would show the natural trend of society: now premarital sex and divorce are becoming quite common.


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