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Dox47
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26 Mar 2011, 2:50 pm

I've been aware of and curious about this for some time, but some recent articles have also started asking questions so I thought I'd bring it here. The thing I'm talking about is President Obama's poll numbers among minority vs non-minority voters, and what meaning can be drawn from them about race and politics in America. Here's an excerpt from one article laying out the baseline:

http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/weigel ... oters.aspx

Dave Weigel wrote:
Ninety-two percent of black voters want to re-elect Obama, as do 66 percent of Hispanics. Only one percent of blacks (!) and 16 percent of Hispanics want to vote against Obama. That's the source of the positive re-elect number -- break it down to white voters, and only 36 percent of them want to re-elect him. For comparison, 37 percent of white voters went Democratic in 2010.
Source of numbers is a Pew Poll
Bold is mine.

It's that 92% number that blows me away, that level of support isn't usually seen outside of dictatorships and the like (I'm not suggesting coercion or anything, just making an observation). It really makes me curious if black Americans really agree with his policies that strongly, or if they would support a non-black president holding the same position to that extent. Considering the many carry-over policies from Bush to Obama and the antipathy in the black community towards Bush, I'd say the answer is no. This brings me to my question about the place of racial identity in politics; should the race of the candidate really matter? My gut reaction is no, and I imagine that most people would say the same if asked, but I think these numbers paint a different picture.

I could very easily launch this into a double standards rant as I'm quite positive as to the reception I'd receive if I declared that I was supporting white candidates because of their whiteness, but I'm not really interested in that argument. I'm trying to take a non-judgmental look at this because I'm genuinely curious about the effects of racial identity on politics. I'm aware that I don't view race in the same way that many minorities do, and I'm trying to better understand the mindset.

My personal feelings are still that voting for someone primarily because of their race is foolish for whoever is doing it, but I'm interested to hear the opinions of people who feel otherwise.


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ikorack
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26 Mar 2011, 3:02 pm

Oh ffs, 92% that's an embarrassment. They should have asked questions concerning their political stances as well to give more useful information.



Dox47
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26 Mar 2011, 3:18 pm

ikorack wrote:
Oh ffs, 92% that's an embarrassment. They should have asked questions concerning their political stances as well to give more useful information.


Here's where the poll came from:

http://people-press.org/report/720/

It's geared mostly towards Obama's chances of reelection than anything, so there isn't really any info on preferences beyond the presidential election.

I too would be curious about what specifically the 92% like about Obama, as he's not really lived up to his campaign promises and has promoted quite an illiberal agenda thus far. I suspect there would be some hemming and hawing when the question was asked.


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26 Mar 2011, 3:22 pm

I think a lot of that is as much a result of the Southern Strategy: blacks tend to identify with democrats because they were the last ones to actually even attempt to seem like they care about the issues important to them.

The sad thing being that it really isn't any kind of improvement and they don't care about those issues any more.


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Dox47
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26 Mar 2011, 3:31 pm

skafather84 wrote:
I think a lot of that is as much a result of the Southern Strategy: blacks tend to identify with democrats because they were the last ones to actually even attempt to seem like they care about the issues important to them.

The sad thing being that it really isn't any kind of improvement and they don't care about those issues any more.


I've often thought that black voters have sort of painted themselves into a corner that way; the Democrats know they don't really have to do anything for them (what are they going to do, vote Republican?), while the Republicans think of them as being so solidly in the Democratic pocket that they hardly even bother to appeal to them (why waste the effort?). I think what is needed is a palatable enough black Republican with national profile to make the Dems realize that they don't just get the black vote by default, and make the Reps realize that their voting bloc is enough in play to be worth going after. Now that's not exactly likely, but it's how I see it.


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26 Mar 2011, 4:15 pm

The minority issue jumped out at me when I saw the poll too. I responded to the issue in the other thread regarding the Hispanic Vote. That is the fastest growing demographic of the population; I think it is of more concern for the Republican party in the future than the black vote for the future. The black vote is maxed out, and the signs are that the population of this demographic isn't significantly increasing. I wonder if the Republicans have any potential solutions to influence Hispanics to switch over to the Republican side.

The Black response to the poll is pretty amazing, but that demographic is normally about 90% Democrat. Obama didn't come through on all his promises but the medicaid expansion in the healthcare reform act is a huge benefit for the percentage of blacks that work in the service industry and who are unemployed. In regard to this he is still a savior to that demographic. Also, the same applies to Hispanic Voters.

I think this may be one of the real reasons that Republicans are working so hard to get rid of the healthcare reform act. If it stays intact, those that need it most, won't forget the party that passed it.



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26 Mar 2011, 5:40 pm

skafather84 wrote:
I think a lot of that is as much a result of the Southern Strategy: blacks tend to identify with democrats because they were the last ones to actually even attempt to seem like they care about the issues important to them.

The sad thing being that it really isn't any kind of improvement and they don't care about those issues any more.

This is the reason. It isn't that they like Democrats so much as they dislike the GOP which abandoned them for racists votes with the Southern Strategy. The fact that Obama is black likely gave him a small boost among blacks but the main reason for the 90% support is partisan. Black voters would probably go 90% for Hillary Clinton over Alan Keyes. That would prove it isn't about the candidates race.



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26 Mar 2011, 7:58 pm

marshall wrote:
skafather84 wrote:
I think a lot of that is as much a result of the Southern Strategy: blacks tend to identify with democrats because they were the last ones to actually even attempt to seem like they care about the issues important to them.

The sad thing being that it really isn't any kind of improvement and they don't care about those issues any more.

This is the reason. It isn't that they like Democrats so much as they dislike the GOP which abandoned them for racists votes with the Southern Strategy. The fact that Obama is black likely gave him a small boost among blacks but the main reason for the 90% support is partisan. Black voters would probably go 90% for Hillary Clinton over Alan Keyes. That would prove it isn't about the candidates race.


In fact that very number, 90 percent, of Blacks did vote against Al Sharpton.
So skin color alone is not the issue.
But it is a little bit of icing on the cake for Blacks.

The cake being: both the fact that they like his policies, and the Black tradition of voting democratic.
A tradition strengthened rather than weakened in the post civil rights years by the "republican revolution of the nineties.

The democratic party was the chief ally of Blacks against their most implacable mortal enemy.
That enemy being: the democratic party.

The northern democrats ( by wrangling help from indinvidual republicans) triumphed over the southern segregationist dixiecrats to achieve the civil rights reforms of the fifties and sixties.

In the nineties the dixiecrats (both voters and politicians) all defected in mass to the Republican party in the so called "Republican Revolution" ( which should be called "the dixiecrat mass extinction"). So today all the dixiecrats are Republican, but the civil rights wing of the democratic party is still democrat. So naturally Blacks are repelled by their traditional enemies and are drawn to their traditional allies. The enemy has left the party,only thier friends remain so there is more reason for party loyalty than ever. Not much mystery.

It cuts both ways. You might ask why heartland Whites are so uniformly Republican.

Or why the GOP doesnt do more to counter balance the Democratic lock on the Black vote by trying to woo Jose the Plumber and ignore his White Anglo counterpart who is already in thier pocket.



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26 Mar 2011, 10:18 pm

Dox47 wrote:
It's that 92% number that blows me away, that level of support isn't usually seen outside of dictatorships and the like (I'm not suggesting coercion or anything, just making an observation). It really makes me curious if black Americans really agree with his policies that strongly, or if they would support a non-black president holding the same position to that extent.


Well, lets look at recent history, shall we?

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/electi ... ed_00.html

90% of Black voters in 2000 voted for Gore 1% of Black voters filled the ballot for Nader.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107110/obama ... -2004.aspx

88% of Blacks supported Kerry in 2004.

And for some broader perspective....

Talking Points Memo wrote:
Blogger Chino Bianco provided these numbers from USA today in an earlier post by flufferwink entitled Hillary Clinton Says Only Whites Matter

The vote percentages given to Democrats and Repiblicans in recent elections are as follows:

1984 Walter Mondale 90% Ronald Reagan 9%
1988 Michael Dukakis 90% George H.W. Bush 10%
1992 Bill Clinton 83% George H.W. Bush 10%
1996 Bill Clinton 84% Bob Dole 12%
2000 Al Gore 90% George W. Bush 9%


http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2 ... ically.php

So, if anything, Obama's percentage of the black vote isn't that different from previous Democratic presidents. Even if there are many similarities between Obama and Dubya's foreign policies, civil rights record, and many domestic policies, the fact that the modern Republican machine has to play the double act of woeing racist lunatics like Glenn Beck while evading accusations of racism, certainly turns of black voters. If conservative commentators are going to keep shouting how it's time to replace a "black nationalist" who has engineered the "takeover" of America by minorities, then those said minorities aren't going to vote for the more conservative party.

And is it rational? Completely, given that the instant austerity advocated by GOPers would devast many urban black populations.


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26 Mar 2011, 10:20 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
marshall wrote:
skafather84 wrote:
I think a lot of that is as much a result of the Southern Strategy: blacks tend to identify with democrats because they were the last ones to actually even attempt to seem like they care about the issues important to them.

The sad thing being that it really isn't any kind of improvement and they don't care about those issues any more.

This is the reason. It isn't that they like Democrats so much as they dislike the GOP which abandoned them for racists votes with the Southern Strategy. The fact that Obama is black likely gave him a small boost among blacks but the main reason for the 90% support is partisan. Black voters would probably go 90% for Hillary Clinton over Alan Keyes. That would prove it isn't about the candidates race.


In fact that very number, 90 percent, of Blacks did vote against Al Sharpton.
So skin color alone is not the issue.
But it is a little bit of icing on the cake for Blacks.

The cake being: both the fact that they like his policies, and the Black tradition of voting democratic.
A tradition strengthened rather than weakened in the post civil rights years by the "republican revolution of the nineties.

The democratic party was the chief ally of Blacks against their most implacable mortal enemy.
That enemy being: the democratic party.

The northern democrats ( by wrangling help from indinvidual republicans) triumphed over the southern segregationist dixiecrats to achieve the civil rights reforms of the fifties and sixties.

In the nineties the dixiecrats (both voters and politicians) all defected in mass to the Republican party in the so called "Republican Revolution" ( which should be called "the dixiecrat mass extinction"). So today all the dixiecrats are Republican, but the civil rights wing of the democratic party is still democrat. So naturally Blacks are repelled by their traditional enemies and are drawn to their traditional allies. The enemy has left the party,only thier friends remain so there is more reason for party loyalty than ever. Not much mystery.

It cuts both ways. You might ask why heartland Whites are so uniformly Republican.

Or why the GOP doesnt do more to counter balance the Democratic lock on the Black vote by trying to woo Jose the Plumber and ignore his White Anglo counterpart who is already in thier pocket.
Hahaha I'm not surtpsrised abouyt AL ahasrpement. He's a clown who just makes the black community look bad. And yeah it hasd to do with the fact that minorites tend to voe for Dems tratherh than just them voting for bvlvcaks.,



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27 Mar 2011, 12:44 am

The question is: is the Republican Party going to chance losing conservative whites by representing the rights of minorities? As far as I can tell, Republicans are more interested in keeping the vote of conservative whites who are more concerned with the skin color of whoever is ahead of them in the chow line.

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer



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27 Mar 2011, 1:46 am

Kraichgauer wrote:
The question is: is the Republican Party going to chance losing conservative whites by representing the rights of minorities? As far as I can tell, Republicans are more interested in keeping the vote of conservative whites who are more concerned with the skin color of whoever is ahead of them in the chow line.

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer


I'll make a prediction; if health care reform stands as is, we will never have another Republican president. Health Care means more, healthy, live, Hispanics and Blacks that are capable, and more likely to vote. The Hispanic population continues to increase in numbers, while caucasians and blacks are at a relative stand still.

Although the actual results of actions taken by Democrats and Republicans are no longer significantly different for the most part, the message in the media and voiced by Republicans must change to reflect the message that the Democrats present to make any significant impact on increasing the number of minorities that vote Republican.

As stated by Kraichgauer, this action will lose the Caucasian conservative vote; so the Republicans are in somewhat of a catch 22.

I won't make this prediction for the Senate and House, though; the minority numbers that come out to vote on non-presidential election years is not nearly as significant as those numbers are in Presidential election years. Eventually, though we are headed in that direction also, unless Republicans find a way to persuade additional Hispanics to support their views.

The bottom line is we are headed to a demographic in our nation where minorities become a totality majority. The effect is already clear in the polls. There is no way to dismiss the math.

The Republican party must radically change their image, to meet this challenge of the future. The Black vote is not likely to change, no matter what the Republicans do, the historical evidence is clear on that point. What, if anything, can they do to pursuade a significant additional number of Hispanics to vote Republican?

Don't be surprised if we see more Hispanic Journalists on FOX. Jeraldo and his brother may be just the start. Notice, he often doesn't present the same hard right views that the other commentators do on FOX.

The technique is somewhat subtle, late night with Jeraldo on FOX; not sure it would work on conservative radio talk shows at this point. Glenn Beck can change to meet whatever challenge is presented for him. He has already proven that by moving from CNN's HNN to FOX.

CNN had Rick Sanchez; However, I don't see CNN and MSNBC intentionally adding Hispanic Journalists; representative views for the majority of Hispanics are already present.



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27 Mar 2011, 1:57 am

The complaints that blacks are only voting for Obama because he's black are silly. Others have already pointed out that the level of African-American support for Obama is not out of line with historical trends. The Republican has only been doing more and more to alienate the minority vote, so naturally they choose their only alternative.


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27 Mar 2011, 2:45 am

Although, to naturalplastic, apparently some socially conservative Republicans are trying to woe fundamentalist Christian blacks on "religious moral issues" like abortion and same-sex marriage. But with the general backdrop of conservative commentators fear-mongering over the "minority takeover" of America, I think it's had limited effect.


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27 Mar 2011, 9:28 am

aghogday wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
The question is: is the Republican Party going to chance losing conservative whites by representing the rights of minorities? As far as I can tell, Republicans are more interested in keeping the vote of conservative whites who are more concerned with the skin color of whoever is ahead of them in the chow line.

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer


I'll make a prediction; if health care reform stands as is, we will never have another Republican president. Health Care means more, healthy, live, Hispanics and Blacks that are capable, and more likely to vote. The Hispanic population continues to increase in numbers, while caucasians and blacks are at a relative stand still.

Although the actual results of actions taken by Democrats and Republicans are no longer significantly different for the most part, the message in the media and voiced by Republicans must change to reflect the message that the Democrats present to make any significant impact on increasing the number of minorities that vote Republican.

As stated by Kraichgauer, this action will lose the Caucasian conservative vote; so the Republicans are in somewhat of a catch 22.

I won't make this prediction for the Senate and House, though; the minority numbers that come out to vote on non-presidential election years is not nearly as significant as those numbers are in Presidential election years. Eventually, though we are headed in that direction also, unless Republicans find a way to persuade additional Hispanics to support their views.

The bottom line is we are headed to a demographic in our nation where minorities become a totality majority. The effect is already clear in the polls. There is no way to dismiss the math.

The Republican party must radically change their image, to meet this challenge of the future. The Black vote is not likely to change, no matter what the Republicans do, the historical evidence is clear on that point. What, if anything, can they do to pursuade a significant additional number of Hispanics to vote Republican?

Don't be surprised if we see more Hispanic Journalists on FOX. Jeraldo and his brother may be just the start. Notice, he often doesn't present the same hard right views that the other commentators do on FOX.

The technique is somewhat subtle, late night with Jeraldo on FOX; not sure it would work on conservative radio talk shows at this point. Glenn Beck can change to meet whatever challenge is presented for him. He has already proven that by moving from CNN's HNN to FOX.

CNN had Rick Sanchez; However, I don't see CNN and MSNBC intentionally adding Hispanic Journalists; representative views for the majority of Hispanics are already present.

I don't know. I've encountered some Hispanic people who were rabidly far right. Like this guy...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDED_vGkTfA[/youtube]



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27 Mar 2011, 2:04 pm

marshall wrote:
aghogday wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
The question is: is the Republican Party going to chance losing conservative whites by representing the rights of minorities? As far as I can tell, Republicans are more interested in keeping the vote of conservative whites who are more concerned with the skin color of whoever is ahead of them in the chow line.

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer


I'll make a prediction; if health care reform stands as is, we will never have another Republican president. Health Care means more, healthy, live, Hispanics and Blacks that are capable, and more likely to vote. The Hispanic population continues to increase in numbers, while caucasians and blacks are at a relative stand still.

Although the actual results of actions taken by Democrats and Republicans are no longer significantly different for the most part, the message in the media and voiced by Republicans must change to reflect the message that the Democrats present to make any significant impact on increasing the number of minorities that vote Republican.

As stated by Kraichgauer, this action will lose the Caucasian conservative vote; so the Republicans are in somewhat of a catch 22.

I won't make this prediction for the Senate and House, though; the minority numbers that come out to vote on non-presidential election years is not nearly as significant as those numbers are in Presidential election years. Eventually, though we are headed in that direction also, unless Republicans find a way to persuade additional Hispanics to support their views.

The bottom line is we are headed to a demographic in our nation where minorities become a totality majority. The effect is already clear in the polls. There is no way to dismiss the math.

The Republican party must radically change their image, to meet this challenge of the future. The Black vote is not likely to change, no matter what the Republicans do, the historical evidence is clear on that point. What, if anything, can they do to pursuade a significant additional number of Hispanics to vote Republican?

Don't be surprised if we see more Hispanic Journalists on FOX. Jeraldo and his brother may be just the start. Notice, he often doesn't present the same hard right views that the other commentators do on FOX.

The technique is somewhat subtle, late night with Jeraldo on FOX; not sure it would work on conservative radio talk shows at this point. Glenn Beck can change to meet whatever challenge is presented for him. He has already proven that by moving from CNN's HNN to FOX.

CNN had Rick Sanchez; However, I don't see CNN and MSNBC intentionally adding Hispanic Journalists; representative views for the majority of Hispanics are already present.

I don't know. I've encountered some Hispanic people who were rabidly far right. Like this guy...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDED_vGkTfA[/youtube]


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: ! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !! !!

-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer