Is Ukraine Going to live?

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Personally I feel this is a bit alarmist, but one never knows …

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... r-III.html

I believe in self determination, nationalistic western Ukraine and the Russified east of the country should peacefully divorce each other. I don't think you can hold one group's self determination over another, if the coup government in Kiev is legitimate then how aren't the separatists? There is no reason for the US and Russia to be enemies, there is so much we can work together on. I will oppose any intervention in eastern Europe, we've meddled in it for far to long and now Russia is finally reasserting itself after decades of humiliation.

I normally wouldn't have a problem with Russia reasserting itself under the leadership of the likes of Boris Yeltsin, but Putin is a scary, evil little man. When Bush said he saw into Putin's soul, he was sadly mistaken; as former KGB, Putin doesn't have a soul. Instead, filling that empty space where said should should have been is unbridled, nationalistic expansionism, forged from his own totalitarian impulse to become the next Man Of Steel (Stalin).

I didn't think Russia would invade & annex Crimea - it had so many levers with which to squeeze Ukraine that I doubted it would feel impelled to go that far - so I'm not making any predictions about what's coming next. But I can envision many scenarios by which this crisis would escalate.

But with Russia clearly contemplating further military action in Ukraine, it's coming close to put-up-or-shut-up time for the U.S. & NATO. President Putin probably isn't aiming at a restoration of the Soviet Union, but he certainly is aiming to re-establish Russian dominion over the post-Soviet region. And judging by its actions so far in the Ukrainian crisis, it's clear that the U.S. intends to challenge that, at least up to a point. The U.S. got the government it wanted in Ukraine - right-of-center, hostile to Russia, willing to impose harsh austerity on its people, ready to prostrate itself to the IMF & Brussels. But in so doing, the U.S. may have implicitly made some promises that it will be unable or unwilling to keep. For the bottom line is that Russia is willing to fight over Ukraine, while the U.S. & NATO aren't. And the end result is that this government will get hung out to dry while Russia bites off chunks of its territory & uses other means to destabilize the country & undermine the new leaders' hold on power.

On the other hand, it isn't hard to understand why Russia has been acting as it has. Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the pattern of successive U.S. governments has been to mouth platitudes about "partnership", "new beginnings", "cooperation" or whatever. But the real policy has been to roll back Russian power & influence whenever & wherever possible - NATO expansion, Serbia/Kosovo, all those "color revolutions" in the former Soviet republics. It's entirely rational that Russia would view NATO as a hostile military alliance that aims to encircle it geostrategically & try to deprive it of its ability to project power. The brief invasion of Georgia in August 2008 was effectively Russia's announcement to the West that it would push back against such efforts. Bogged down as it was in Iraq at the time, all the U.S. could do in response was protest. So in a way, Russia is just picking up where it left off 5 1/2 years ago.

Also, against that recent historical backdrop, it isn't hard to understand why the Russian government would have felt sucker-punched by the coup/revolution/regime-change in Kiev last February, coming as it did just hours after a negotiated settlement to the Maidan stand-off appeared within reach. For my part, I still think it's possible for Russia & the West to come to an understanding over Ukraine. And I continue to believe that Russia would accept some sort of deal that respects Ukraine's independence & keeps its borders intact, recognizes Russia's security interests & military assets especially with regard to Sevastopol, restores Crimea to formal Ukrainian sovereignty but establishes some sort of formula for co-rule there, allows Ukraine to form an economic association with the EU if it so chooses, but keeps Ukraine out of NATO. But I don't think our side is really interested in a deal, for such would be tantamount to recognition of Russia as a co-equal power in the region, which the U.S. remains patently unwilling to do. And the longer this crisis drags on, the less Russia would be interested in a deal either. And so the most likely result in the short-term is escalation of the conflict.

I think you're buying into the media characterization of Putin a little too much. He worked for the KGB but George H.W. Bush was the director of the CIA. Was Bush soulless and evi... Yea never mind.

Russia has been keeping score all these years with how the US has meddled in their sphere of influence, NATO has been expanded to include pretty much the entire Warsaw Pact when Gorbachev's condition was for removing 300,000 Soviet troops from East Germany and allowing them to reunify with West Germany as a single state under NATO was that NATO wouldn't expand "one inch to the east" after that. They remember NATO's war with Serbia, Kosovo's independence played a big role in Russia's annexation of Crimea. The US has been threatening to put a "missile shield" in eastern Europe pointed at Russia for years now. When looked at objectively, most people agree that Georgia started it's war with Russia back in 2008. I think there is a lot of propaganda in our news media lately in regards to Putin and Russia. Is it a coincidence that it has barely been a year since Russia stopped the US from invading Syria and gave refuge to Edward Snowden.

Last edited by Jacoby on 17 Apr 2014, 7:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

http://news.yahoo.com/crimeans-lives-ru ... 00990.html

"When Dr. Zavalii’s first university stipend following annexation finally arrived, several days late, he received it not in Ukrainian hryvnia on a debit card as he used to, but by lining up at the university bookkeeper’s office to get a thick stack of crisp, new Russian rubles, untouched by human hands."

... funny how this little tidbit points at how prepared Russia was for this landgrab.

To deliver a massive amount of currency to replace the local currency requires months of preparation and transportation from the mints to the final destination. Here's a university prof. getting paid in Russian rubles ... which means he and all gov. employees are too. Banks begun to receive these Rubles very, very shortly after the annexation of Crimea.

I think I'm being fair with Putin. Under his rule, he's become the strongman rather than a democratically elected president, even going to the extent of having some non-entity (can't remember his name, but honestly, who can?) a few years ago sitting in their presidency, while Putin still called the shots. Under his aegis, Russia has seen a reversal of civil liberties, including freedom of speech, while gays have replaced the Jews in Russian society as the target of nationalistic and moral anger.

Putin is no softie and by the higher ideals of Western democracy and suchlike, he is a virtual dictator within a one party state system. Then again, the USA does some terribly evil things around the world and within its own country and to its own citizens. Snowden revealed as much to us all. Its too easy to demonise less than pure leaders like Putin and uncritically accept anything done by the 'righteously' democratic West. Its not that simple. In a lot of ways, Putin appears to me as honest in his dictatorial ways. He is what he is. The West believes its own charade and bays for the blood of Snowden who uncovers the rottenness. None of this stacks up under serious analysis.

Putting aside the rights and the wrongs, the power plays will play out as they will. Russia would suffer serious economic trauma if they shut off the supply of gas to Europe but the frozen bodies of Europeans without gas would be far more traumatic.

What really makes me angry is the Western media who appear to treat Putin as some sort of traffic offender that needs to be brought to book. There needs to be some respect for Russian and Putin. To not show some basic respect (irrespective of political views) is not just stupid but extremely dangerous.

I remember that following the "revolution" Kiev that the question of "will the east rise up" came up and the answer always was that they were far too passive over there. My thinking was that yes, they are passive, but this is because the Russians tended to let the western Ukrainians and the West have their way and eastern Ukraine would inevitably get the short end of the stick and that this from the point of view of their morale, was very bad, and indeed does encourage passivity. Why stick your neck out when your enemies have endless backing to the end from their friends whilst yours are less certain.

The business in Crimea as well as in eastern Ukraine must be seen in this context. The Russian support, never before seen like this, has served to change the expectations. They have belief that they can win here, something that was lacking. The whole change from Russia started really in 2008 when the West and Georgia really thought they can roll through South Ossetia easily and Russia would do nothing. Russia clearly did not convince the West it was serious there so now it must re-teach that lesson; first in Crimea, then in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Never mind the Ukraine, our friends in the USA had better watch out …

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014 ... ing-Alaska

The Russian won the last election, and with another in 40 days, the Russian speaking east invaded with tanks, low flying jets, people killed, will lead to a high voter turnout. Also the people from the east running getting beat up.

Taking the east and south leaves a mess, CIA in Kiev, but winning the national election, takes Kiev.

Higher rates for gas, lower wages and pensions, will not be popular. The West is farmland, and it is planting time. Expect low voter turn out.

The two parties, one for a united Ukraine, the other for IMF debt servitude, and Civil War, with Russia on the side of the industrial east.

Kiev will not make the debt go away, pay for gas, in advance, or replace the farm markets in Russia. Russia was the largest buyer of milk, they just cancelled. The EU is closed to Ukraine produce. Russia is also the largest buyer of coal, steel, and industrial production.

The EU has not offered Membership, free trade, open borders. All they offer is deeper debt.

Forty days is a long time. Kiev has an army in the field, and no way to pay them, feed them, and supply fuel.

Without the Russian export market, Ukraine does not have an economy.

After a landslide election, expect New Russia to become very independant but still part of Ukraine. The west, with a secure market for farm produce, will go along.

The current powers that be will be hunted down for crimes against humanity.

Why did Russia give up their territories in the 1st place , Ukraine is Russia and it would have been in Ukraine's interest to stay in the USSR , why not USSR without the communism ?
Am I being naïve or do I need to read up more on my Russian history ?

They could no longer hold onto it.



I doubt that non-Russian Ukrainians would agree with that statement.



Probably because many of the nations that had declared their independence have historical grievances with Russia that would make such a thing hard to achieve trough peaceful means.

^^^

OK I agree though what can't be denied Ukraine would be many times richer if it was still in the Union , we keep hearing about the high economic growth rates of China , what about Russia ?
In fact Russians growth rate is even more impressive as it was starting from a much higher economic base .

A big part of it is, the Ukrainians have never seen themselves as Russians, and in fact see Russians as the aggressive, all consuming neighbor who wants to dominate and exploit them. Ukrainian nationalism has always been bubbling beneath the surface, and so when they had the opportunity to break free during the fall of communism, they took it.

(Reuters) - "Russia's top gas producer Gazprom said on Tuesday July 8, 2014, that the Ukraine had not met its payment deadline for June resulting in its total debt to the company rising to $5.3 billion."

- Just one line in a long list of disputes stemming from the Ukraine's inability to provide or pay for its energy needs.

Political independence without financial independence?