Malaysian plane shot down over Ukraine.

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blue_bean
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17 Jul 2014, 9:41 pm

s**t's about to get real.



Dillogic
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17 Jul 2014, 9:49 pm

The reporter above is a little off:

It generally wouldn't be too hard to track, acquire and engage a high flying air bus with rudimentary knowledge and a manual for whatever SAM system was used, in addition to perhaps having "advisers" helping you.

Actually, shooting down an air bus would point to rebels more so than state actors, as misidentification would be the most common problem there.

Nothing will happen though, other than perhaps .RU stopping the covert aid to the rebels and Europe/US boosting aid to Ukraine.



Yuzu
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17 Jul 2014, 10:03 pm

It's not the reporter that's making those assumptions. It is the director of the Royal United Services Institute, a British defence and security think tank. So he should know what he's talking about.



Prof_Pretorius
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17 Jul 2014, 10:04 pm

Most commercial aircraft fly around 33,000 feet and at 600 miles per hour. The reports I've been hearing say the BUK ground to air missiles are not easy, push button type affairs. Supposedly, it requires training, and coaching.
Overall, its a horrible tragedy.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/sophisti ... 1405619035


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Last edited by Prof_Pretorius on 17 Jul 2014, 10:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Dillogic
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17 Jul 2014, 10:18 pm

Yuzu wrote:
It's not the reporter that's making those assumptions. It is the director of the Royal United Services Institute, a British defence and security think tank. So he should know what he's talking about.


It's easy to say anything is too hard to use. It'd be harder to employ MANPADs against lower flying aircraft than something like Buk, and the rebels have shown to be able to use them just fine (even at the limits of its flight ceiling; there's a video of them figuring out how much to lead and loft in one of the videos they've released on their second shot after the first fell short, which shows knowledge).

But, with the manual and average intelligence, you can work it out. It'd be no harder than learning something like "SAM SIM".

It might not have even been the Buk system. The older SA-6 Gainful [and SA-8 Gecko] is very possible too. It all depends on where and how they came into possession of it.

E: If I were to supply rebels, I'd give them the SA-8, as it has its own radar on the vehicle (all in one package is easier for this type of deal where you don't have to worry about HARMs coming your way). And it can hit stuff near 40,000 feet.



TheGoggles
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17 Jul 2014, 10:36 pm

Dillogic wrote:
The reporter above is a little off:

It generally wouldn't be too hard to track, acquire and engage a high flying air bus with rudimentary knowledge and a manual for whatever SAM system was used, in addition to perhaps having "advisers" helping you.

Actually, shooting down an air bus would point to rebels more so than state actors, as misidentification would be the most common problem there.

Nothing will happen though, other than perhaps .RU stopping the covert aid to the rebels and Europe/US boosting aid to Ukraine.


No way is Putin going to stop pushing his offensive. His response to this whole incident has been "Meh." He also knows nobody is going to even try to hold him accountable, even though everyone even vaguely familiar with Realkpolitik knows exactly what he's doing. Fortunately for him, hypernationalist Russians worship the ground he walks on, and that's all he needs to stay in power.



Yuzu
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17 Jul 2014, 10:37 pm

Dillogic wrote:
But, with the manual and average intelligence, you can work it out. It'd be no harder than learning something like "SAM SIM".


Quote:
Kalashnikov-carrying Russian sympathisers in Ukraine would not have had the expertise to use the Buk system and would have needed either specialists who had "volunteered" their services from Russia or locally recruited experts. Russia is alleged to have infiltrated special forces into Ukraine in the guise of rebels.

(from the previous article)

I don't know, man. It doesn't sound like something an average Joe can work out that easily.



Dillogic
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17 Jul 2014, 11:09 pm

Generally, knowledgeable individuals, i.e., ones with training, should probably be able to determine if it's civilian or not based on several parameters that a SAM operator is given. Though it's not certain, and it can be assumed that the Ukrainian forces might use civil air corridors to ferry supplies.

The fact that it was shot down generally points to amateurs with missiles, though, or negligence by professionals.

It's a stupid situation all around anyway. Locals looting its remains, having planes fly over a war zone, a silly conflict based on even sillier reasons, .RU supplying weapons [and advisers] and fostering hate in the east for the west, Ukrainian forces going in with violent intent, silly propaganda by both sides and those from outside, and so on and so forth.



djw2398
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18 Jul 2014, 12:44 am

I figure there is probably a lot of ex-military fighting with the rebels; it really wouldn't be unlikely that they found someone who was trained to use this or similar weapon systems. It's also likely that they are getting some support from Russia "on the down-low," training and knowledge in addition to armaments. It was already known that the rebels got ahold of some Buk's a couple of months or so ago. They have the weapons, and they very likely have someone who knows how to use them. It's entirely possible they are behind it, especially if it was a screw-up.



Dillogic
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18 Jul 2014, 1:13 am

Pretty much.

They have people that know how to operate armored vehicles, which are as complicated as a SAM system; there's bound to be people around that have the capability with the latter, even if they have to import them from across the border.



nostromo
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18 Jul 2014, 1:46 am

Note to self:

Next time I'm flying remember to ask the carrier if they fly over warzones where SAM are stationed and aerial combat has been taking place over the preceding days 8O



cyberdad
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18 Jul 2014, 2:40 am

trollcatman wrote:
According to wikipedia they know the nationality of some of the victims:

Dutch: 71
American: 23
French: 4+
Total: 295


There were also 28 Australians, the highest number of Australians to ever die on one single plane crash



cyberdad
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18 Jul 2014, 2:44 am

As a result of this attack it's likely all commercial passenger planes may be fitted with Israeli missile defense systems
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-pa ... se-system/

Given this technology was already available and the Malaysians still have not found their earlier lost MH370 I guess they better be the first to install these.



chris5000
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18 Jul 2014, 4:29 am

nostromo wrote:
Note to self:

Next time I'm flying remember to ask the carrier if they fly over warzones where SAM are stationed and aerial combat has been taking place over the preceding days 8O

just do fly Malaysia at all their track record is horrible they loose like 2 planes a year on average
imagine if delta lost that many planes



opal
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18 Jul 2014, 5:21 am

cyberdad wrote:
trollcatman wrote:
According to wikipedia they know the nationality of some of the victims:

Dutch: 71
American: 23
French: 4+
Total: 295


There were also 28 Australians, the highest number of Australians to ever die on one single plane crash

Yes, second only to the Dutch. Some of their families had friends and relatives on the missing Malaysian airlines plane which is just too horrific to imagine. :(



Dillogic
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18 Jul 2014, 5:37 am

cyberdad wrote:
As a result of this attack it's likely all commercial passenger planes may be fitted with Israeli missile defense systems
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-pa ... se-system/

Given this technology was already available and the Malaysians still have not found their earlier lost MH370 I guess they better be the first to install these.


Might just be against heat seekers, which has always been the biggest threat to civil planes (it even says landing and take-off in the article), i.e., MANPADs (other than the laser guided ones).

Wouldn't have helped in this case, as it was a radar guided missile. There's no much out there to defend against such for an air bus.