Autism By The Numbers Question

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Hey guys got a question for ya earlyer in the year the CDC released information about how Autism is on the rise I think the number is one in 68 or 66 children will have the disorder however after seeing this picture it seams that Autism is not on the rise but rather decreasing could somebody please share with me if you can the relationship between the numbers posted in the picture provided and the numbers that the CDC released this year. I want to know if this disorder is really on the rise or if it's slowly decreasing



Thanks

I believe that the increase in incidence is caused by a broadened definition of what AUTISM is, not necessarily an increase in autism itself.

I believe the incidence of autism will steady itself over the next few years.

....and more refined means to find them. The next rise will show, when more girls are caught as well.

I think your picture's numbers might be wrong. I think I heard it was 1 in 66 in 2013, and was predicted to be 1 in 50 for 2014----thus, an INcrease. Did you look at the date of the article that you read that said 1 in 66?

Maybe I'm just in denial or something, but whenever I see these types of estimates, I can't help but feel they're very skewed.

Btw probably there is some over-diagnosis. For example, according to studies 2-3% of people have an AQ score>=32; the rates of diagnosis are approaching that - even though I'm pretty sure it's possible to have an AQ>=32 without having problems that warrant a disorder diagnosis.

I don't get it. How come it's only 1% of the population that has an ASD, yet 1 in 60 doesn't seem that rare at all? There are conditions much, much rarer than that, can't remember what it was called but there's one illness what only, like, 200 people in the world have today. So what percentage of the population does that make?

Well, because they are not true at the same time. 1 in 60 is 1.67%.

I think it's not that it's on the rise, but that two things are happening:

The fact that it's a spectrum with a wide range of severity is being increasingly taken onboard by those whose job it is to perceive both the milder-affected as well as the very clear cases. There was a time when even professionals overlooked so-called "high functioning" and those people/children were just thought of as any number of choice adjectives (from "just shy" to "odd" to much worse....) These children (and adults) are now being recognized and diagnosed.

Female children and adults are now more widely recognized to be on the spectrum. Females can present differently and even those qualified to spot autism have historically overlooked, dismissed, or mistaken for something else the traits and symptoms as they present in a girl child or adult woman. Obviously the criteria to be met is the same as for anyone, but there can be learned masking even at a young age. I think more specialists in the field are taking onboard that there are females getting missed out and that's beginning to be rectified as more experience with female presentation comes about.

So basically it's entirely possible that the number of people on the autism spectrum may even be about the same as it ever was, it's just that in the past many slipped under the radar and were just "that odd woman who lives at Number 23" and "Uncle Hugh who isn't quite right but we'll take him in and look after him." That was how things were a long time ago -- and those people were quite possibly on the spectrum, but never diagnosed.

My two cents -- just my thoughts about it.

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I am a bit confused as to what it is that you are confused about.

That picture shows that autism is INcreasing, and not DEcreasing.

I hope that you are aware of that.
Was thinking that maybe you were confused by the bigger "one out of" numbers on the right. The bigger the number that you are "one out of" the more rare you are.

Whether it actually IS increasing is an open question.

They are getting better at finding and diagnosing autism, and they have broadened the definition ( it used to be just what we now call "classic" or low functioning autisitcs who were classed as autistics. Now they lump middle, and high functioning, folks in, and they recently got rid of aspergers, so the aspies are all thrown into the autistic hopper as well).

I think the incidence might be unrealistically high already due to overbroadening of criteria and overdiagnosis in children at both ends of spectrum.

I was 1 out of the 10,000 (or more). I was diagnosed with autism around 1964-1965.

Then, all of a sudden, I acquired speech, and somehow became Aspergian.

I believe Birdie hit the nail on the head, really. It's a combination of factors. I don't believe the actual incidence of autism is increasing.

According to this video:

http://youtu.be/FSTDf-LmAfI?t=12m50s

Only about a third of of the increase in diagnosis can be accounted for by broadening of diagnostic criteria and greater recognition of the condition.

I can't see the video:

What did the video say were the other causes of the increased incidence? They're probably talking about environmental influences--which is possible.

Also: I know this for a plain fact:

Until the 1980s, autism was merely what, in DSM IV, was known as "autistic disorder" and "childhood disintegrative disorder." I would say it is probable that even the "high-functioning" portion of people with "autistic disorder" would probably not have been diagnosed with autism at that time. The definition was much, much narrower than it is now.

People with Asperger's (like me, circa 1966 and later), and people with HFA, would probably have been diagnosed with "brain injury," "minimal brain dysfunction," or something of that ilk. These diagnoses were extremely imprecise. They didn't know what to make of us "brain-damaged" people LOL

It doesn't say anything for certain. The video is from the 'University of California Television' channel and is about the environmental factors which can contribute to the development of Autism. Some of the factors I remember being discussed in the video are: Air pollution, time gap between pregnancies, mothers having fevers during pregnancy and a lack of certain vitamins during pregnancy.