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GGPViper
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10 Oct 2016, 1:06 pm

Following the latest week of catastrophic developments for Trump, with many senior GOP republicans abandoning ship... now culminating in the apparent "half"-withdrawal of support from Paul Ryan, the highest ranking elected Republican in the US...

... a question remains... Is it over for Trump? Is there any angle that might salvage his chances of winning the election? Or has his campaign passed the point of no return?

At this point I'm having a hard time seeing how any - realistic - event in the coming month could salvage his dreams of the Presidency... But am I missing something?

Please discuss...



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10 Oct 2016, 1:40 pm

Normally I'd say yes, he's absolutely done, but this guy has been rising from the political dead all year, so I'm hesitant to throw any dirt on his grave just yet. I do think it would take a miracle at this point, and I'm not even sure what form that would take, maybe a failed assassination attempt by illegal Mexican Muslim immigrant terrorists aided and abetted by the Central Park 5 or something.


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10 Oct 2016, 1:48 pm

Why would his wet dream be fulfilled? Besides, that case is in fact the horrible reality resulting from racism, and all they can get is monetary compensation... but would someone as aggressive as this obese bed tanner admit that it was his own false rhetoric which, actually, resulted in an obstruction of justice, because if there wasn't prejudice then perhaps the actual perpetrator would have been caught.

And we're talking about a female being sexually assaulted? I wonder who expressed this desire a decade ago...



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10 Oct 2016, 2:02 pm

Baring some extraordinarily improbable event, it looks like he's done.

But extraordinary things sometimes happen. 538's polls-only algorithm still gives him an 18% chance of victory.

The electoral college picture is solidly against him and the time is short, so while we may not be quite at the end of the line today, it seems like we've past the final set of points that might have put him on track for victory, if you don't mind my stretching a metaphor till it screams.

It will be interesting to see how much and what kind of coverage the upcoming court proceedings (10/14) in the Jane Doe case against him get.


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10 Oct 2016, 2:10 pm

It seems to me that the significance of the withdrawal of RNC funding cannot be overstated.

What is the ground game for Trump on Nov 8? To win, he has to get supporters in swing states out to the polls in large numbers.

The Democrat machine will be getting voters who will vote blue down the line to the polls. The Republican machine, meanwhile, will be getting voters who will vote red down the line, regardless of how they vote at the top of the ticket.

Ultimately, that could preserve the Republican majorities in the House and Senate while writing off the Oval Office for another four years. If I was in the Republican war room, that would be the end result that I would be chasing for.

Meanwhile, the Democrats need to up their game in the Senate races in NV, NC, PA, NH, MO and even FL. They need four pickups in the Senate (and if they can't keep NV, that means five others). The Republican best result is now to deprive them of that.


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10 Oct 2016, 2:16 pm

What you may be missing is the "it is over, because this time he really has gone to far" meme is bieng sprouted be the same media and political elite that have been saying the same thing for a year and a half and who have been consistantly wrong. You can not judge this election the same way as any other election cycle in history because this cycle is unlike any other. This may be especially true with polling. I rarely agree with Micheal Moore but he had a point when he said people are constantly underestimating Trump because while the bigoted bullying supporters are out there to see a lot of people are going to vote for Trump because they agree he would a disaster and want to f**k the system up. These people are not going to be truthful to pollsters.

Wikileaks is going to be releasing bad things about Hillary from now until the election. Will that be countered by bad things about Trump coming out daily?

Because significant portions of the country view one or both of the candidates as existential threats to the future of the country this increases the chances of skullduggery. Russian hacking is in the news but it need not be the Russians but homegrown. As has been pointed out it is going to be extremely difficult to rig the election nationally, but in a close election all you will need is to do it in 1 or 2 states. In the past with a few exceptions the electoral college members have voted as they were assigned to do. In this political climate this is not as certain, especially if it is close.

I would not be shocked if Trump won, Trump won the popular vote and lost the electoral college, or the Republicans worst nightmare comes true, Democrat landslide at all levels.


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10 Oct 2016, 3:10 pm

Think about how many times they've said this already, the media might be dancing in the end zone but there is still a lot of time left on the clock. Trump won the 2nd debate, he clearly shouldn't of taken it easy on her the first time around so I'd expect more of the same. The moderators probably will be more fair not being CNN, the truth is when they are actually talking about the issues then Trump wins because Hillary's record is indefensible and she won't even stand by her real plans. Hillary Clinton stands for open borders and gun confiscation, we know this from her leaks. She has lied about everything, not irrelevant tumblr-grade triggering.

Maybe the media will eventually start covering the blatant corruption that the Clinton's partake in, the things they attack Trump about even in it's little relevance are things the Clinton's are guilty of tenfold. What a joke they accuse Trump of sexual assault when Bill Clinton is a literal rapist and his victims are sitting front row. The globalists will not go down without a fight, the GOP establishment attempted a coup against Trump and for that they should be severely punished. I wasn't going to vote for John McCain anyways but now I will vote for Ann Kirkpatrick, I don't know if I'll vote for a single Republican down ticket. Paul Ryan is part of the fascist establimentarian order, he plays on the same side as Hillary Clinton.



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10 Oct 2016, 3:33 pm

It's the End of the line for Trump if you believe what the media tells you.
And, unlike the last 3 terms of office you really can't take their word for granted.

They've been wrong about the success of Trump's campaign the whole way through it.
This is an unpredictable candidate with a protest vote behind him.

Just take a look at Brexit. The polls were doctored to put Remain 10 clear points ahead the night before the voting started, and Remain lost by 2%. Think about it.

Granted, there's going to be another tape the DNC or their benefactors have sat on in case more leaks come out and the "locker room" tape failed to sway his voters. And if this tape didn't do it, I don't see how the next one will.


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10 Oct 2016, 3:36 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
I would not be shocked if Trump won, Trump won the popular vote and lost the electoral college, or the Republicans worst nightmare comes true, Democrat landslide at all levels.


I think a Trump victory is actually the Republican nightmare, 4 years of being blamed for every nutty thing he does and says.


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10 Oct 2016, 3:53 pm

If The Rump does not win on November 8th, it wouldn't surprise me if he tries to get the nomination again for the 2020 election. However, now that The Rump is 70 years old, it wouldn't surprise me if he starts developing dementia or Alzheimer's between now and then.


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10 Oct 2016, 5:02 pm

Dox47 wrote:
ASPartOfMe wrote:
I would not be shocked if Trump won, Trump won the popular vote and lost the electoral college, or the Republicans worst nightmare comes true, Democrat landslide at all levels.


I think a Trump victory is actually the Republican nightmare, 4 years of being blamed for every nutty thing he does and says.


It is good that even we can agree on some things sometimes.



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10 Oct 2016, 5:07 pm

Trump has to hope that the polling is strongly underestimating him. There's a good chance he's secretly winning in North Carolina - we need to see where Johnson's votes go. Ohio is still in reach. Florida is going to be hard unless there's something seriously wrong.

The good news for Trump is it can't get much worse. Clinton's going to struggle to hang on in Arizona and Iowa, and in theory it's easier for him to re-claim Ohio than for Clinton to win Georgia from this position.

I also think he might benefit from people's low expectations. If he suddenly manages to present himself as Mitt Romney in 2012 and actually have thought-out policies, then the marked improvement would win votes. But that's extremely difficult this late in the game.

Dox47 wrote:
ASPartOfMe wrote:
I would not be shocked if Trump won, Trump won the popular vote and lost the electoral college, or the Republicans worst nightmare comes true, Democrat landslide at all levels.


I think a Trump victory is actually the Republican nightmare, 4 years of being blamed for every nutty thing he does and says.

I also think they'd be more confident about being in the White House from 2020-24 (and then 24-28) if Clinton wins now. It's hard to see either party nominating such weak candidates again, so right now it seems a good bet that the next president will only get one term even with the incumbent effect. Get someone electable at the top of the ticket against President Clinton sounds like their best chance of reasserting their dominance.

The trouble would be the Supreme Court.



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10 Oct 2016, 5:11 pm

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10 Oct 2016, 5:19 pm

Trump or no Trump, the only way there can ever be another GOP president is if they promise to transform the U.S. into a giant hippie commune.


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10 Oct 2016, 5:40 pm

Quote:
Just take a look at Brexit. The polls were doctored to put Remain 10 clear points ahead the night before the voting started, and Remain lost by 2%. Think about it.


This. I've said it before, today the majority of polls are commissioned in order to influence opinion, not measure it.

Still if you really are interested in polling you might want to pay more attention to online polls, for the EU referendum they were far more accurate at predicting the outcome than the telephone or face-to-face polls.


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10 Oct 2016, 5:45 pm

Well, I'm not very fond of Trump, anyway. That guy is a negative influence to the US.