Massive fireball in the Russian sky: nuclear test in space?

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Florent_P
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23 Oct 2016, 1:30 pm

(just displacing this from Random to this forum, looks more appropriate)

Image

This was recorded in the sky of Siberia, on Nov 14, 2014, and is definitively one of my "special interests" as an Asperger's Syndrome diagnosed person.
So this fireball was recorded in video, several people saw it, it was near Yekaterinburg.
I tried to write a Wikipedia article (not allowed to post URLs, so here it is en DOT wikipedia DOT org/wiki/Yekaterinburg_Fireball) which I have kept factual even though there is "original content" there.

The fact is, there is really no other explanation, I think, than a nuclear bomb in space.
Could it be a meteoroid ? The local astronomers indicated "nothing fell from the sky on the day of the flash".
An on-ground explosion, as the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations claimed it ? No noise, no vibration, no smoke, no fire. No post-explosion pictures of the place of the explosion (which would be according to the ministry a kind of gunpowder warehouse). And it seems very unlikely that this expanding fire in the sky is simply the reflection of something happening on the ground.

The CTBTO, the organism watching for nuclear tests worldwide, of which Russia is a member, has no independent way to watch for high altitude nuclear tests. It can monitor underground, underwater or atmospheric nuclear tests (they have sismometers, marine detectors for underwater shockwaves, atmospheric detectors for airbursts and "noses" for fission products) but has no satellites for high altitude tests and, on that, relies on data provided by Member States (that's what they repeatedly told me).

There was, in Yekaterinburg, just days after the flash, a conference of the Russian NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, on... missile / air defence. What better than a nuclear bomb to intercept an incoming ICBM ? My guess is : the flash was a demonstration of Russian interception capabilities.
Furthermore, it has been 25 years since Russia last did a nuclear test, and they have no way to simulate nuclear explosions with computers (unlike the USA or France, for instance). So probably they needed to check whether their bombs were still able to work.

High altitude nuclear bombs usually created an electromagnetic pulse... except if it happens at a time of strong solar activity, and Autumn 2014 was a period of high solar activity. It was also the height of the Ukrainian crisis, and you know the Russians are totally paranoïd, always convinced they may be under attack...

The initial flash of the nuclear bomb (the blinding flash) cannot be seen there but there was a very thick layer of clouds and my guess is that it blocked the flash. But at high altitudes, since the air isn't dense, fireballs can grow very largely, and this is what you can see in the pictures and in videos (see t[DOT]co/0wEwqbWCnx).

So what do you think ? I really see no other plausible explanation for a nuclear explosion for so bright a flash.


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Fogman
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23 Oct 2016, 6:07 pm

Still though, I don't seem to recall anything about electronics, especially digital electronics suddenly being bricked by either this event or solar activity, so I think no in regards to a high altitude atomic explosion.


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auntblabby
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23 Oct 2016, 9:34 pm

thank our lucky stars for that :o



Lantylam
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24 Oct 2016, 1:02 pm

Probably just a meteor exploding in the atmosphere. Anything else would have been noticed and big news worldwide, especially a nuclear explosion and resulting EMP disrupting electronics and satellites.



Florent_P
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24 Oct 2016, 2:05 pm

As I said high altitude nuclear bombs usually created an electromagnetic pulse... except if it happens at a time of strong solar activity, and Autumn 2014 was a period of high solar activity.

Furthermore, as I also said, no meteorite was recorded in the sky in Siberia at that time. You can check in the Meteoritical Society website. Also that's what said local astronomers to journalists of the Siberian Times, a local English speaking newspaper : no meteorite fell in the area on that day.

And why would the Russian government have claimed it was an on ground explosion if it was a meteorite ? They would simply have said it's a meteorite !


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25 Oct 2016, 6:31 am

Quote:
what better rhan a nuclear vomb to intercept an ICBM?

How about a conventional missile, nukes produce fallout.

The picture given does show a flash of light on the ground as well, so the flash in the air *could* be a reflection.
Astronomers "not seeing anything" does not mean that nothing was there either; the large astroid a few years back also was not seen by astronomers.

If this really was a demonstration of russian anti-missile defence; we'd have known. Russia is quick with propaganda, but slow with admissions of problems.
The lack if information makes the "exploding factory" more likely than "aerial nuclear bomb"; not everything is a conspiracy



Florent_P
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25 Oct 2016, 7:38 am

izzeme wrote:
How about a conventional missile, nukes produce fallout.

The picture given does show a flash of light on the ground as well, so the flash in the air *could* be a reflection.
Astronomers "not seeing anything" does not mean that nothing was there either; the large astroid a few years back also was not seen by astronomers.

If this really was a demonstration of russian anti-missile defence; we'd have known. Russia is quick with propaganda, but slow with admissions of problems.
The lack if information makes the "exploding factory" more likely than "aerial nuclear bomb"; not everything is a conspiracy


No fallout from high altitude nuclear bombs, strong high altitude winds blow away the fallout.
The light on the ground, as I said, was not accompanied by any sound, there was no vibration, no smoke, no fire. So it's clearly the reflection of something happening above. As I said there is no testimony of on ground explosion, even the local newspaper (the Siberian Times) noted that "the light was not accompanied by any sound". How does that fit with the on ground explosion hypothesis ? Lastly, no picture of the place of the explosion emerged.

Regarding the meteoroid hypothesis, as I said the explosion would have been acknowledged as such (the Russian government would have been very quick in explaining it's a meteoroid, and the meteoroid would be accounted for in websites such as the webpage of the Meteoritical Society. Instead the Russian government refused to comment / claimed it was an on ground explosion (and as I said, the facts clearly don't match).

Last question : what else can produce such a large and quickly-inflating fireball, except a nuclear explosion ? Except if you know how to bring at high altitudes 15 000 tons of TNT ? at least ?


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25 Oct 2016, 4:27 pm

Florent_P wrote:
(just displacing this from Random to this forum, looks more appropriate)

Image

This was recorded in the sky of Siberia, on Nov 14, 2014, and is definitively one of my "special interests" as an Asperger's Syndrome diagnosed person.
So this fireball was recorded in video, several people saw it, it was near Yekaterinburg.
I tried to write a Wikipedia article (not allowed to post URLs, so here it is en DOT wikipedia DOT org/wiki/Yekaterinburg_Fireball) which I have kept factual even though there is "original content" there.

The fact is, there is really no other explanation, I think, than a nuclear bomb in space.
Could it be a meteoroid ? The local astronomers indicated "nothing fell from the sky on the day of the flash".
An on-ground explosion, as the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations claimed it ? No noise, no vibration, no smoke, no fire. No post-explosion pictures of the place of the explosion (which would be according to the ministry a kind of gunpowder warehouse). And it seems very unlikely that this expanding fire in the sky is simply the reflection of something happening on the ground.

The CTBTO, the organism watching for nuclear tests worldwide, of which Russia is a member, has no independent way to watch for high altitude nuclear tests. It can monitor underground, underwater or atmospheric nuclear tests (they have sismometers, marine detectors for underwater shockwaves, atmospheric detectors for airbursts and "noses" for fission products) but has no satellites for high altitude tests and, on that, relies on data provided by Member States (that's what they repeatedly told me).

There was, in Yekaterinburg, just days after the flash, a conference of the Russian NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, on... missile / air defence. What better than a nuclear bomb to intercept an incoming ICBM ? My guess is : the flash was a demonstration of Russian interception capabilities.
Furthermore, it has been 25 years since Russia last did a nuclear test, and they have no way to simulate nuclear explosions with computers (unlike the USA or France, for instance). So probably they needed to check whether their bombs were still able to work.

High altitude nuclear bombs usually created an electromagnetic pulse... except if it happens at a time of strong solar activity, and Autumn 2014 was a period of high solar activity. It was also the height of the Ukrainian crisis, and you know the Russians are totally paranoïd, always convinced they may be under attack...

The initial flash of the nuclear bomb (the blinding flash) cannot be seen there but there was a very thick layer of clouds and my guess is that it blocked the flash. But at high altitudes, since the air isn't dense, fireballs can grow very largely, and this is what you can see in the pictures and in videos (see t[DOT]co/0wEwqbWCnx).

So what do you think ? I really see no other plausible explanation for a nuclear explosion for so bright a flash.
\

The Chellybinsk Meteor produced a bigger and brighter flash and caused injuiries to 1500 people (mostly flying glass the broke from the shock wave). Not the least bit nuclear.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor


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izzeme
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26 Oct 2016, 7:14 am

Florent_P wrote:
izzeme wrote:
How about a conventional missile, nukes produce fallout.

The picture given does show a flash of light on the ground as well, so the flash in the air *could* be a reflection.
Astronomers "not seeing anything" does not mean that nothing was there either; the large astroid a few years back also was not seen by astronomers.

If this really was a demonstration of russian anti-missile defence; we'd have known. Russia is quick with propaganda, but slow with admissions of problems.
The lack if information makes the "exploding factory" more likely than "aerial nuclear bomb"; not everything is a conspiracy


No fallout from high altitude nuclear bombs, strong high altitude winds blow away the fallout.
The light on the ground, as I said, was not accompanied by any sound, there was no vibration, no smoke, no fire. So it's clearly the reflection of something happening above. As I said there is no testimony of on ground explosion, even the local newspaper (the Siberian Times) noted that "the light was not accompanied by any sound". How does that fit with the on ground explosion hypothesis ? Lastly, no picture of the place of the explosion emerged.

Regarding the meteoroid hypothesis, as I said the explosion would have been acknowledged as such (the Russian government would have been very quick in explaining it's a meteoroid, and the meteoroid would be accounted for in websites such as the webpage of the Meteoritical Society. Instead the Russian government refused to comment / claimed it was an on ground explosion (and as I said, the facts clearly don't match).

Again: no claim of the fact doesn't mean it didn't happen

Quote:
Last question : what else can produce such a large and quickly-inflating fireball, except a nuclear explosion ? Except if you know how to bring at high altitudes 15 000 tons of TNT ? at least ?

A rocket going to orbit? Like some cargo to a space station, or a new military spy satellite



BaalChatzaf
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26 Oct 2016, 3:00 pm

Florent_P wrote:

Last question : what else can produce such a large and quickly-inflating fireball, except a nuclear explosion ? Except if you know how to bring at high altitudes 15 000 tons of TNT ? at least ?


An exploding meteor or asteroid. The smaller ones will blow up before hitting the ground. That is probably how the Tunguska Event happened. An iron meteor 50 fifty feet across which explodes could produce more energy than a nuclear bomb. Think about it. The kinetic energy of a body with velocity v and mass m is 1/2mv^2. Suppose the velocity has a magnitude of 50,000 mph. Square that and you have a lot of boom. The Chelybinsk meteor made an explosion of the same magnitude as a nuclear weapon. Its shockwave broke glass of hundreds of miles and caused injuries to over 1500 people. Fortunately the thing never hit the ground in one piece. But shards of the meteor were found. It was a heavy iron rock.


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Florent_P
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29 Oct 2016, 12:24 pm

It's worse than "no claim", there is a DIFFERENT claim, i.e. the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations said it was an on ground explosion. Hence why do you all think it's a meteoroid ? If it were a meteoroid the Ministry would simply have told the truth.


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