Downside of confidence?

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I realised today that I gain confidence by convincing/fooling myself that the outcome I want is inevitable. Similar to how it's easier to act if you believe the act, or to lie if you believe the lie.

But that confidence, and taking an action like applying for a particular job or apartment.. it takes commitment. So much commitment and convincing that it's a huge surprise and disappointment when it fails.

Does anyone else identify with this?