Why do machines and robots have to take our jobs, why?

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Kraichgauer
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26 Feb 2017, 11:24 am

lidsmichelle wrote:
It's called capitalism lol. You can't praise capitalism and then complain when it negatively impacts you. Automation would cost businesses less in the long run and they don't have to pay automation. The bottom line for businesses matters more than the normal person's quality of life.

It's like factory jobs - people complain that we ship them overseas because it takes jobs from us (also it's unethical because of the severe underpay and mistreatment of their foreign soil workers) but don't seem to realize if we force them back here automation will take most of the jobs anyways. CEOs need to take home their multi billion dollar bonuses as we all know. They might lose a few hundred million if they had to pay actual human beings and give benefits and how could they deal with that sacrifice? The horror!


Oh, those poor CEOs, I shudder to think how they might be parted from their money! :lol: :P :evil:


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26 Feb 2017, 11:47 am

lidsmichelle wrote:
It's called capitalism...

Yes, which is why "voting with your dollars" is the best way to convince certain capitalists that their methods might lose them money. That gets their attention like nothing else. The grocery store that I described really does exist. Its owners have decided to ignore technology (even if it might save them some expenses) because their customers want that kind of experience when they are giving them "great huge wodges of cash." I, like most of their other customers, don't mind paying a titch more money if we can experience respect, good products and seeing our neighbors employed there.


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26 Feb 2017, 12:24 pm

For all the cheap-shots at 'capitalism' it's been the only working model of any success at bringing people out of poverty in developing countries and keeping liberal republican-democracies afloat. I'd never call it the best system in the world, a more accurate way to phrase it is that's its been the least pernicious system compared to the alternatives.

What we're probably looking at in the future is some sort of have-roof that recycles funds downward, most primarily because plutocracy ends up being a very short part of a country's lifespan before you're in late 18th century Paris. If we get to the point where over 25% of the people out there simply aren't needed in the labor market and can't be retrained into what's available we get to that point where if life becomes unbearable for these people we're closer and closer to that point. Capitalism seems to do something like a 30-year dance where in times of real danger when it's close to overthrow it'll favor labor and discipline capital, then if inflation starts getting too high it disciplines labor and favors capital, and I think this dance will be inevitable for a long time because the moving parts of any economy tend to seek reward and in that there's always winners and losers - the losers generally stay in that position until things get bad enough, for enough of them, that they organize and are able to exert enough power on the system to turn things back toward a state of balance. That's probably the best thing about capitalism - it's chaos means that it's also plastic and flexible enough to buffer a lot of bumps in the road whereas centrally planned economies are practically made of glass.

I don't at all think we want to say 'that's capitalism', otherwise I really think you have to tell us what's the better alternative. We clearly see that the best way to make a plutocracy not just hold power but be a truly criminal elite holding power for longer than five decades - Communism's the way to go. I think the way we've really done a number on ourselves intellectually is upholding the value of ideological purity. It doesn't work, life is sloppy, and the purer you get to one overarching economic, political, or social principle the more you create a situation that benefits a small few and damages the majority.

So getting back to topic - we're in a situation where automation won't just be taking over for machine press operators, box-throwers, or migrant chili-pickers in Texas, we're talking about a lot of jobs including the fields of medicine, law, pharmacology, and IT where we'll be seeing jobs disappear. With the automation of vehicles you'll also see professional truck driving and taxi driving evaporate and to the extent that they might need a person in the vehicle to handle demurrage, the signing of freight bills, etc.. at the other end that person won't be paid nearly as much as the guys are who manually drive various goods or chemical supplies across regions of a country rain or shine.

If one way of doing things is more efficient and we're in a situation where the existence of a business rests on its efficiency, then we truly are slaves to technological progress and these jobs must be offloaded and replaced by machines. What do we do then with the people we're left with whose natural talents or abilities have been sold off to computers? About all you can do is give them some type of basic income, whether it's enough to survive comfortably or whether it's enough to supplement a near minimum-wage service job for them to live comfortably (I think the later will be more likely). Either way I think it'll have to be done because short of that we're back to things getting bad enough for a taste of late 18th century France.

In all of that I think capitalism-bashing will be utterly useless, capitalism-modifying however will be mandatory for its own survival as a system.


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techstepgenr8tion
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26 Feb 2017, 12:33 pm

Mark Blyth has been kicking a lot of ass with respect to nailing the current economic and political climate. Somewhat similar to my analogy earlier to 18th century France, he offers a similar analogy - the Hampton's aren't a defensible position.


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26 Feb 2017, 12:58 pm

K_Kelly wrote:
Who wants to sit all day and not be moving at all?
Well, who wants to do hard physical labor?
K_Kelly wrote:
I remember wanting to work in a movie theater showing movies as a projectionist, but it gone down the tubes because movies were being switched to being projected on film to being on digital.
Lts of work has disappeared. There was a time I wanted to become a lighthouse keeper, thinking the main work would be make sure the light was lit correctly for the ships and that it would give me a lot of free time to do what I wanted (read, play video games, watch stuff), but then all lighthouses were automated, so goodbye lighthouse.
K_Kelly wrote:
since physical media is obsolete.
Physical media is as obsolete as you make them. DVDs and bluerays are still being released, it's up to you to buy them if you want. I am personally a huge fan of physical media and all the movies and books I have, are physical. You can get by just fine without Netflix.
K_Kelly wrote:
Sweetleaf wrote:
What is so great about working long hours doing menial tasks a machine can do? I doubt machines or robots could replace all jobs but yeah when it comes to a lot of menial tasks that is certainly the way things are progressing. There is more to life than 'labor'. The only options are menial labor or sitting all day not moving at all?

I don't understand what you mean by being more to life than 'labor'. What about all the money you earn from labor? Where else can you source an income?
At some point we might actually start seeing universal income becoming more usual as the population grows and the number of human jobs go down. I wouldn't mind that one bit myself.


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26 Feb 2017, 12:59 pm

Fair and equitable capitalism is a great thing, but, when Mitt Romney (who now lives just about four miles south of me) was being scrutinized for his Bain Capital dealings, I wouldn't call his brand of capitalism fair and equitable.


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26 Feb 2017, 1:33 pm

Machines won't take all of our jobs. Our jobs will just change. They may make machines to perform certain tasks, but there has to be people to design the machines, produce them, and maintain them. So the jobs don't go away; there are just different kinds of jobs.



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26 Feb 2017, 1:39 pm

Robots can do tasks that are simple boring and repetitive, never need sick days or take vacation time, and can take on tasks that are too dangerous for humans. I really couldn't care less about slaving away in a factory all day where all there is to do is put caps on ketchup bottles, and it wouldn't earn much money anyhow.

Although I do worry that CGI animation is replacing people who can actually draw 2-D cartoons by hand. Especially free hand with no tracing or special tools other than a pencil and some paper.



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26 Feb 2017, 1:50 pm

If your competition is using automation to produce the same product you'd better be using it too or lose business.


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26 Feb 2017, 1:58 pm

Seems to me that despite automation, there are more people than ever being credited for working on movies.

https://stephenfollows.com/how-many-peo ... wood-film/



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26 Feb 2017, 2:07 pm

Are there actually more people working on those movies or are they just giving everyone credit so they won't feel marginalized. Same as giving every kid a "participation trophy"?


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26 Feb 2017, 3:04 pm

techstepgenr8tion wrote:
For all the cheap-shots at 'capitalism' it's been the only working model of any success at bringing people out of poverty in developing countries and keeping liberal republican-democracies afloat. I'd never call it the best system in the world, a more accurate way to phrase it is that's its been the least pernicious system compared to the alternatives.

What we're probably looking at in the future is some sort of have-roof that recycles funds downward, most primarily because plutocracy ends up being a very short part of a country's lifespan before you're in late 18th century Paris. If we get to the point where over 25% of the people out there simply aren't needed in the labor market and can't be retrained into what's available we get to that point where if life becomes unbearable for these people we're closer and closer to that point. Capitalism seems to do something like a 30-year dance where in times of real danger when it's close to overthrow it'll favor labor and discipline capital, then if inflation starts getting too high it disciplines labor and favors capital, and I think this dance will be inevitable for a long time because the moving parts of any economy tend to seek reward and in that there's always winners and losers - the losers generally stay in that position until things get bad enough, for enough of them, that they organize and are able to exert enough power on the system to turn things back toward a state of balance. That's probably the best thing about capitalism - it's chaos means that it's also plastic and flexible enough to buffer a lot of bumps in the road whereas centrally planned economies are practically made of glass.

I don't at all think we want to say 'that's capitalism', otherwise I really think you have to tell us what's the better alternative. We clearly see that the best way to make a plutocracy not just hold power but be a truly criminal elite holding power for longer than five decades - Communism's the way to go. I think the way we've really done a number on ourselves intellectually is upholding the value of ideological purity. It doesn't work, life is sloppy, and the purer you get to one overarching economic, political, or social principle the more you create a situation that benefits a small few and damages the majority.

So getting back to topic - we're in a situation where automation won't just be taking over for machine press operators, box-throwers, or migrant chili-pickers in Texas, we're talking about a lot of jobs including the fields of medicine, law, pharmacology, and IT where we'll be seeing jobs disappear. With the automation of vehicles you'll also see professional truck driving and taxi driving evaporate and to the extent that they might need a person in the vehicle to handle demurrage, the signing of freight bills, etc.. at the other end that person won't be paid nearly as much as the guys are who manually drive various goods or chemical supplies across regions of a country rain or shine.

If one way of doing things is more efficient and we're in a situation where the existence of a business rests on its efficiency, then we truly are slaves to technological progress and these jobs must be offloaded and replaced by machines. What do we do then with the people we're left with whose natural talents or abilities have been sold off to computers? About all you can do is give them some type of basic income, whether it's enough to survive comfortably or whether it's enough to supplement a near minimum-wage service job for them to live comfortably (I think the later will be more likely). Either way I think it'll have to be done because short of that we're back to things getting bad enough for a taste of late 18th century France.

In all of that I think capitalism-bashing will be utterly useless, capitalism-modifying however will be mandatory for its own survival as a system.


I don't have a problem with capitalism... as long as everyone gets a piece of the pie. And that more often than not is accomplished by workers organizing in order to demand said piece of the pie. Yet, business owners adamantly oppose organized labor so they don't have to pay their workers for actually creating goods and services.


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26 Feb 2017, 3:07 pm

People are foolish to think the future will treat them so kindly because of the false belief of that what was in the past will continue to be true, if automation really does kill 50% of all jobs then that is essentially a declaration of war on the working class as there will never be a society so altruistic where half the population does all the work while the other half sits in idleness. You expect the same people who think of you as a 'useless eaters' and they themselves as the more evolved winners in this righteous global meritocracy to see value in supporting your continued existence, ignoring the realities of human nature at this juncture does not seem like a very good idea.



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26 Feb 2017, 3:53 pm

Kraichgauer wrote:
I don't have a problem with capitalism... as long as everyone gets a piece of the pie.

I think the most important thing people can do, and I won't grind this one too much more because I realize this is an internet forum not a political action think-tank, is be as realistic and non-shrill in their evaluations and proposed amendment so the system as possible.

I fully agree for example that when getting a piece of the pie means not having to sleep under the stars, each out of garbage cans, or be losing fingers and toes because you're diabetic and can't afford insulin - its below the line of basic human decency for us to deny people their rights to that. Further I think people in that situation who are in the safety nets, particularly those who have to be, get a measure of autonomy and privacy if they're law abiding citizens and for those who aren't that they should have no more supervision and drug-testing than anyone else whose on probation or some type of societal vetting program under any other economic circumstance. Heck, if they want to automate the heck out of things it might be for the mass production and distribution of food and basic amenities to those who need them - make it uber-efficient and cut costs at the same time!


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27 Feb 2017, 12:17 am

My first time seeing Dambisa Moyo interviewed. She's got some very interesting perspectives although I really hope the future of political-economic models isn't China because they've still got a lot of Orwellian crap up their sleeve.


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27 Feb 2017, 7:28 am

Raptor wrote:
Are there actually more people working on those movies or are they just giving everyone credit so they won't feel marginalized. Same as giving every kid a "participation trophy"?


Computer animation and retouching do require a lot of people if you want to precisely match someone's vision of what it should look like. You may even need a scientist to figure out the physics of how something moves.

Perhaps the difference is that when you do a sequel, there is in fact a lot of money one can spend. Spending that money may be a good way of keeping a talent pool around for your next really innovative film. You might say that this is Hollywood's way of spreading the wealth around and keeping people doing useful things.