I predict Trump will be re-elected in 2020 !

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Marknis
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19 Dec 2017, 12:54 am

Kraichgauer wrote:
Marknis wrote:
rvacountrysinger wrote:
Why can't people just stop being so negative, and give the president a chance? The economy is doing so much better and I feel like he's doing a very good job. He needs to build the wall faster, though


Maybe a lot of us feel this way because we are sick of being told we are "weird" or "un-American" just because we don't mindlessly follow like sheep? Ever thought of that?


I'll say it again: I wish we had an emoticon for clapping hands!


As well as a face palm one. Why don't we have that at all? :?



Kraichgauer
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19 Dec 2017, 1:57 am

Marknis wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Marknis wrote:
rvacountrysinger wrote:
Why can't people just stop being so negative, and give the president a chance? The economy is doing so much better and I feel like he's doing a very good job. He needs to build the wall faster, though


Maybe a lot of us feel this way because we are sick of being told we are "weird" or "un-American" just because we don't mindlessly follow like sheep? Ever thought of that?


I'll say it again: I wish we had an emoticon for clapping hands!


As well as a face palm one. Why don't we have that at all? :?


Is there someone we can email about it? :?


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kokopelli
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19 Dec 2017, 5:25 am

rvacountrysinger wrote:
Marknis wrote:
rvacountrysinger wrote:
Why can't people just stop being so negative, and give the president a chance? The economy is doing so much better and I feel like he's doing a very good job. He needs to build the wall faster, though


Maybe a lot of us feel this way because we are sick of being told we are "weird" or "un-American" just because we don't mindlessly follow like sheep? Ever thought of that?


No offense, but many , if not all of Trump's dissenters are kind of like sheep in their own way. They are mindlessly shouting and rioting, and carrying on, sort of like one great big cacophony.


In reality, there isn't all that much difference between the far left and the far right -- they are nearly all snowflakes who can't stand to hear an opinion contrary to their own. Both are convinced that they are right and the other is wrong. At least they are half-right -- in both cases, the other is wrong.



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19 Dec 2017, 6:24 am

Regarding Trump being reelected in 2020, I have strong doubts about that.

Trump won in 2016 because he was running against Hillary. If the Democrats can find a decent candidate, the 2020 election could very easily be a Democratic landslide.



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19 Dec 2017, 1:44 pm

I would be shocked if he were reelected. Lot of people didn't even vote for him and even Republicans don't like him. Only way for him to be reelected is if someone else was running for president in 2019 and they are even worse than Trump. Some people voted for Clinton because they didn't like Trump even though they also didn't like Clinton either.


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19 Dec 2017, 6:09 pm

League_Girl wrote:
I would be shocked if he were reelected. Lot of people didn't even vote for him and even Republicans don't like him. Only way for him to be reelected is if someone else was running for president in 2019 and they are even worse than Trump. Some people voted for Clinton because they didn't like Trump even though they also didn't like Clinton either.


That last is me. I certainly didn't like Clinton, but I voted for her anyway because she wasn't Trump.


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19 Dec 2017, 6:23 pm

Here is my prediction, Trump will lose in a landslide come to the general election. I don't usually make optimistic predictions like this but here and now is an exception. Trump's disapproval rating is hovering around 60%. Around 40% of the American public is strongly opposed to him. The ideals of the American people lean leftward not rightward. Here and now a majority of Americans support the Affordable care act and Free College.

I see a left-leaning candidate like Bernie taking the reins of the Democratic Party and if that takes place the GOP should prepare for hell to break loose. States that are considered rock solid GOP states such as Texas and Georgia may very well be lost. All I can say is prepare for the worst. It will not be pleasant for the Republican party.

Take a look at the generic congressional vote now the Republicans are losing by 10 points. The public simply isn't energized to vote for his agenda.



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20 Dec 2017, 1:40 am

Kraichgauer wrote:
League_Girl wrote:
I would be shocked if he were reelected. Lot of people didn't even vote for him and even Republicans don't like him. Only way for him to be reelected is if someone else was running for president in 2019 and they are even worse than Trump. Some people voted for Clinton because they didn't like Trump even though they also didn't like Clinton either.


That last is me. I certainly didn't like Clinton, but I voted for her anyway because she wasn't Trump.


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Kraichgauer
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20 Dec 2017, 1:44 am

RetroGamer87 wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
League_Girl wrote:
I would be shocked if he were reelected. Lot of people didn't even vote for him and even Republicans don't like him. Only way for him to be reelected is if someone else was running for president in 2019 and they are even worse than Trump. Some people voted for Clinton because they didn't like Trump even though they also didn't like Clinton either.


That last is me. I certainly didn't like Clinton, but I voted for her anyway because she wasn't Trump.


Image


Drawback of the two party system, me thinks. :(


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20 Dec 2017, 1:53 am

Shahunshah wrote:
Trump's disapproval rating is hovering around 60%. Around 40% of the American public is strongly opposed to him.

Half the people don't vote; so it's not as meaningful as it seems.

Young people and minorities are the least likely to vote.


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Kraichgauer
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20 Dec 2017, 2:03 am

LoveNotHate wrote:
Shahunshah wrote:
Trump's disapproval rating is hovering around 60%. Around 40% of the American public is strongly opposed to him.

Half the people don't vote; so it's not as meaningful as it seems.

Young people and minorities are the least likely to vote.


They certainly did in Alabama this last time.


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20 Dec 2017, 2:36 am

Kraichgauer wrote:
LoveNotHate wrote:
Shahunshah wrote:
Trump's disapproval rating is hovering around 60%. Around 40% of the American public is strongly opposed to him.

Half the people don't vote; so it's not as meaningful as it seems.

Young people and minorities are the least likely to vote.


They certainly did in Alabama this last time.

Only like 1.4 Million people voted out of population of 4.8 million adults.

Looks like 30% voted.


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Shahunshah
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20 Dec 2017, 4:41 am

LoveNotHate wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
LoveNotHate wrote:
Shahunshah wrote:
Trump's disapproval rating is hovering around 60%. Around 40% of the American public is strongly opposed to him.

Half the people don't vote; so it's not as meaningful as it seems.

Young people and minorities are the least likely to vote.


They certainly did in Alabama this last time.

Only like 1.4 Million people voted out of population of 4.8 million adults.

Looks like 30% voted.

They did in Alabama most certainly. 93% who voted for Clinton showed up for Jones compared to less than half who supported Trump voting for Moore. There is no other way to put it. There was a big surge. African Americans voted beyond their dempgraphic number, look at the results yourself.



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20 Dec 2017, 8:43 am

A thing with polls and approval ratings is Trump was shown as way below Hillary. Most everyone expected a Clinton victory to be absolutely certain. With Trump, Stephen Colbert was actually begging him to run because there was no way he was going to win. Obama predicted his loss on national TV. And so on. So really what's needed is for Mueller's highly biased team to cook up some changes and make them stick to teflon man.



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20 Dec 2017, 11:36 am

EzraS wrote:
A thing with polls and approval ratings is Trump was shown as way below Hillary. Most everyone expected a Clinton victory to be absolutely certain. With Trump, Stephen Colbert was actually begging him to run because there was no way he was going to win. Obama predicted his loss on national TV. And so on. So really what's needed is for Mueller's highly biased team to cook up some changes and make them stick to teflon man.


That is because the data was misread not so much the data itself. The meta pools right before the election had her winning by 3 or 4 percentage point she won the popular voter by around 2 percent well within the margin of error.

It Wasn't the Polls That Missed, It Was the Pundits
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There is a fast-building meme that Donald Trump’s surprising win on Tuesday reflected a failure of the polls. This is wrong. The story of 2016 is not one of poll failure. It is a story of interpretive failure and a media environment that made it almost taboo to even suggest that Donald Trump had a real chance to win the election.

In fact, despite the hue and cry, the national polls were actually a touch better in 2016 than in 2012. Four years ago, the final RCP National Average gave President Obama a 0.7-point lead; he won by 3.9 points, for an error of 3.2 points. The final RCP Four-Way National Poll Average showed Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.3 points.

What about the swing state polls? Again, a close look shows that the 2016 polls performed just as well as they did in 2012 – no better and no worse. You can see this by calculating the “mean absolute error,” which measures how far away the polls were from the actual result, regardless of in which direction they were wrong.

So if Hillary Clinton won a state by one percentage point, a poll average that showed the state tied would have the same error as a poll average that showed Clinton winning by two. To put it simply, it is the size of the miss that’s important. The mean absolute error is calculated by taking an average of the misses. This gives you a sense of how far away the polls were from the actual results.


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