What year do you think Autism will be 1 in 1.

Page 1 of 1 [ 9 posts ] 

Dylanperr
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 1 Jan 2018
Age: 20
Gender: Male
Posts: 2,751
Location: The British Empire

06 Mar 2018, 6:49 pm

I heard that Autism will be 1 in 2 by 2025. What do you think your predictions for it being 1 in 1?



Kiprobalhato
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 25 Mar 2014
Age: 27
Gender: Female
Posts: 29,119
Location: מתחת לעננים

06 Mar 2018, 6:50 pm

never.


_________________
הייתי צוללת עכשיו למים
הכי, הכי עמוקים
לא לשמוע כלום
לא לדעת כלום
וזה הכל אהובי, זה הכל.


EclecticWarrior
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 28 Nov 2016
Gender: Female
Posts: 2,001
Location: Cool places

06 Mar 2018, 6:59 pm

I don't believe autism will ever exceed 1 in 30.


_________________
~Zinc Alloy aka. Russell~

WP's most sparkling member.

DX classic autism 1995, AS 2003, depression 2008

~INFP~


The_Walrus
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator

User avatar

Joined: 27 Jan 2010
Age: 29
Gender: Male
Posts: 8,789
Location: London

06 Mar 2018, 7:14 pm

Never.

This sort of thing is said by people who don't understand statistics.

The proportion of people with an autism diagnosis is going up because we're getting better at recognising autism, not because autism is becoming more common.

Studies show that the proportion of people who are autistic is staying level. In the UK it's about 1.1%.



SaveFerris
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 3 Sep 2016
Gender: Male
Posts: 14,762
Location: UK

06 Mar 2018, 7:20 pm

It would only happen if everyone without autism died , and even then the ratio would slowly climb when the population expanded


_________________
R Tape loading error, 0:1

Hypocrisy is the greatest luxury. Raise the double standard


kraftiekortie
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 4 Feb 2014
Gender: Male
Posts: 87,510
Location: Queens, NYC

06 Mar 2018, 7:29 pm

The incidence has already stabilized. It's about the same as it was around 2014-2015, when it was 1 in 66.



CockneyRebel
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 17 Jul 2004
Age: 49
Gender: Male
Posts: 113,298
Location: Stalag 13

06 Mar 2018, 11:25 pm

I don't think that autism will ever be 1 in 1.


_________________
Who wants to adopt a Sweet Pea?


MiddleCisTheColor4
Butterfly
Butterfly

Joined: 26 Feb 2018
Age: 28
Gender: Male
Posts: 17
Location: Pennsylvania

07 Mar 2018, 2:11 am

I'm not going to comment whether or not autism is increasing or decreasing or the rate at which it is going, but regardless, speaking theoretically, I don't believe it could actually ever become 1 in 1 because that would imply the rate is not a curve. (Look up asymptotes.)



naturalplastic
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 26 Aug 2010
Age: 69
Gender: Male
Posts: 33,879
Location: temperate zone

07 Mar 2018, 3:23 am

Dylanperr wrote:
I heard that Autism will be 1 in 2 by 2025. What do you think your predictions for it being 1 in 1?


Who told you that "autism will be 1 in 2 by 2025"?

That is only seven years from now.

Austism is now something like one in 80.

So that means that less than two percent of the population will become fifty percent of the population. That would be a tall order to accomplish even in a thousand years. But someone told you that that will happen in seven years!! !! !! !! Lol!

Even if the birth rate of autistics doubled, and even if no NTs had NT babies in the next seven years the ratio between the two groups would not change anywhere that amount in only seven years.

So this person who told this must believe the following will happen: the population of NTs on the planet will be radically suddenly reduced, and that the population of autistics will all be spared.

All 1.2 percent of humanity who are autistic will still be alive in seven years. But the number of NTs will be reduced so much in that time that their numbers will equal that of autistics -thereby making autistics half of the whole remaining population (as you're saying "1 to 1").

If there seven billion folks in the world. And lets be generous and say one in fifty is autistic. That means 140 million are autistic. Ergo 6.8 billion plus are not autistic.

So if what your friend said is true it means that that 6.8 billion who are not autistic will have to be reduced in number down to 140 million so that their numbers will only be equal to the number of autistics on the planet. And that that will happen in only seven years.

Therefore in seven years we would have to exterminate over 6.6 billon folks on the planet in order to achieve the demographic ratio that your friend predicts will exist in only seven years. In seven years over six billion NTs will have to be marched in front of a firing squad and shot for there to be a 1 to 1 ratio between NTs and autistics. So your friend beleives that a billion folks will be shot or gassed every year for the next seven years (just for the crime of being not autistic)! A tall order even for Hitler and Stalin combined!

:lol: :lol: :lol: