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Shahunshah
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31 Oct 2018, 6:27 am

As we come closer to the 2018 midterms, this topic has a renewed level of interest in my eyes.

Personally, I predicted a narrow Trump win in 2016. I thought Trump would win Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Nevada, and tie in the electoral college with Hillary Clinton. Thereafter a house vote I believed would take place, allowing Trump to emerge as president.

Whilst I am proud of my personal prediction, it was not accurate. Trump did not win in a tie, he won in an electoral landslide, and even states I predicted for Trump such as New Hampshire and Nevada was won by Hillary.

The reason I predicted these wins was because I believed the polls showed that to be the case. And from looking at the data, you will see a very different story to the one predicted by pundits on the eve of the election.

Real Clear politics for one showed Trump edging out in Florida, with a lead over Hillary: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5635.html

Then we come to Ohio where the latest polls predicted a 7 point win Trump: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5634.html

Even in Pennsylvania, the final polls predicted a 1 point victory for Trump. Which guess was his exact victory margin in that state: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -5633.html

And to see these numbers shock me. How could pundits and the media be so oblivious to the potential disaster that was looming? It baffles me, and to this day I received no credible explanation as to why.

And for that reason, I personally get annoyed when people say that the polls were wrong. They weren't. And it is your fault for falling into a collective groupthink that Trump couldn't win, nobody else's.



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31 Oct 2018, 6:41 am

I predict the decline and fall of the empire, which appears to me to be as inevitable as the next high tide.
The fact that as malodorous a troll as Spanky gets to rule us after loosing the election by 3 million votes (the second time that's happened in the last 20 years) and neo-Fascists control all three branches of government unequivocally means that democracy has failed, and failed catastrophically. Between Citizens United v. FEC, rampant partisan gerrymandering, voter suppression, and the ignorance, apathy, and indifference of the peasantry, I don't see the situation improving.



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31 Oct 2018, 7:15 am

No. I predicted very early on that Hillary would win for sure. I believed "fix was in" and most everyone else toward the end believed she would win as well but for different reasons than I did.


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LoveNotHate
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31 Oct 2018, 10:29 am

I did on this site.

1) Democrat constituencies of minorities and young people are awful at actually voting, so if a race is close I think a Republican will win.

2) The Democrats seem to poorly communicate their message. This leads to less enthusiasm.


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31 Oct 2018, 10:33 am

I can't say I believed Trump would win, but I wasn't too shocked when he did.


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31 Oct 2018, 10:37 am

VegetableMan wrote:
I can't say I believed Trump would win, but I wasn't too shocked when he did.


I was completely shocked and became progressively so on that election night starting with me having minor interest in the initial results to being absolutely shocked by the time I went to bed at probably 4am that next morning.


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31 Oct 2018, 11:06 am

No but I'm predicting a Trump disaster.


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Piobaire
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31 Oct 2018, 12:11 pm

I mistakenly assumed that my society was too far advanced and my countrymen far too intelligent to replace the first Black president with a racist know-nothing endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan.
Clearly, I overestimated both.



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31 Oct 2018, 12:17 pm

Piobaire wrote:
I mistakenly assumed that my society was too far advanced and my countrymen far too intelligent to replace the first Black president with a racist know-nothing endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan.
Clearly, I overestimated both.

You're not the only one. Hell I didn't even think it was legal for him to say all this s**t he does about women, hispanics, and black people on TV. If it were anybody else in this country saying those things they would have had so many Civil Rights lawsuits filed against them and their reputation quickly ruined. What exactly makes this guy so untouchable? :|


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31 Oct 2018, 1:46 pm

TW1ZTY wrote:
Piobaire wrote:
I mistakenly assumed that my society was too far advanced and my countrymen far too intelligent to replace the first Black president with a racist know-nothing endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan.
Clearly, I overestimated both.

You're not the only one. Hell I didn't even think it was legal for him to say all this s**t he does about women, hispanics, and black people on TV. If it were anybody else in this country saying those things they would have had so many Civil Rights lawsuits filed against them and their reputation quickly ruined. What exactly makes this guy so untouchable? :|

What s**t does he say about women, Hispanics and black people on TV?



LoveNotHate
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31 Oct 2018, 2:14 pm

Bataar wrote:
What s**t does he say about women, Hispanics and black people on TV?

Also, most people are working and spending time with their families, and don't have time or interest to watch political news.


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TW1ZTY
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31 Oct 2018, 2:34 pm

Bataar wrote:
TW1ZTY wrote:
Piobaire wrote:
I mistakenly assumed that my society was too far advanced and my countrymen far too intelligent to replace the first Black president with a racist know-nothing endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan.
Clearly, I overestimated both.

You're not the only one. Hell I didn't even think it was legal for him to say all this s**t he does about women, hispanics, and black people on TV. If it were anybody else in this country saying those things they would have had so many Civil Rights lawsuits filed against them and their reputation quickly ruined. What exactly makes this guy so untouchable? :|

What s**t does he say about women, Hispanics and black people on TV?




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ASPartOfMe
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31 Oct 2018, 2:39 pm

Trump is a huge factor but he is not running in the midterms.

There are so many conflicting factors.
The low umemployment rate and high consumer confidence should portend well for the republicans.

The democrates have a large advantage in campaign donations

This year is different then 2016 in that back in 2016 pretty much everybody was utterly convinced a person like Trump could not win. We are now in the post Trump win era. Not only that but the daily predictions that Trump would do or say something so egregious that would cause his base to abandon him and and he would be removed from office or resign have been proven wrong again and again and again.

Related to above the democrates have unparalleled enthusiasm and fresh new diverse candidates.

But, But, But there is stiil even now a segment of progressives that believe somehow a return to “common sense” is inevitable.

Just when the blue wave seemed inevitable here comes the October surprise, the Kavanaugh hearings united and inspired even the most Trump hating conservatives against those “screaming, character assassinating, career ruining for high school behavior acceptable at the time” liberal mobs.

Just when the blue wave was seemingly in doubt here comes October surprise the sequel the alt right terrorist attacks that reminded everybody who is not a fan why they think he is dangerous to the future of the American republic.

Also like I said at the beginning Trump is not on the ballots, there are local factors and things about the actual candidates that come into play.

Anybody having any confidence in predicting these midterms is a fool. But since we were asked I predict the Dems will gain a 10 seat advantage in the house, the republicans a seat of two in the senate. There are logical reasons such as the democrates are trying to protect many more senate seats than republicans, and the most reliable data are indicating this etc but I am going with this becuase this type of muddled result that only makes things worse seems inevitable the way things have been going and it is what we deserve.


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31 Oct 2018, 2:48 pm

TW1ZTY wrote:
Bataar wrote:
TW1ZTY wrote:
Piobaire wrote:
I mistakenly assumed that my society was too far advanced and my countrymen far too intelligent to replace the first Black president with a racist know-nothing endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan.
Clearly, I overestimated both.

You're not the only one. Hell I didn't even think it was legal for him to say all this s**t he does about women, hispanics, and black people on TV. If it were anybody else in this country saying those things they would have had so many Civil Rights lawsuits filed against them and their reputation quickly ruined. What exactly makes this guy so untouchable? :|

What s**t does he say about women, Hispanics and black people on TV?




I feel sorry for anyone who doesn't understand what racism is if they believe anything in that video was actually racist.


He talks about advantages educated black men have. What is racist about that? It's 100% accurate. In corporate America, if two people were applying for a job, a white man and a black man and they were of similar experience and education, the black man would get hired most of the time. It helps the company's diversity numbers. It's just the way things are now and recognizing it is not racist.



TW1ZTY
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31 Oct 2018, 3:52 pm

Bataar wrote:
TW1ZTY wrote:
Bataar wrote:
TW1ZTY wrote:
Piobaire wrote:
I mistakenly assumed that my society was too far advanced and my countrymen far too intelligent to replace the first Black president with a racist know-nothing endorsed by the Ku Klux Klan.
Clearly, I overestimated both.

You're not the only one. Hell I didn't even think it was legal for him to say all this s**t he does about women, hispanics, and black people on TV. If it were anybody else in this country saying those things they would have had so many Civil Rights lawsuits filed against them and their reputation quickly ruined. What exactly makes this guy so untouchable? :|

What s**t does he say about women, Hispanics and black people on TV?




I feel sorry for anyone who doesn't understand what racism is if they believe anything in that video was actually racist.


He talks about advantages educated black men have. What is racist about that? It's 100% accurate. In corporate America, if two people were applying for a job, a white man and a black man and they were of similar experience and education, the black man would get hired most of the time. It helps the company's diversity numbers. It's just the way things are now and recognizing it is not racist.


So how would you define racism? I define it as putting down a group of people or a person as being "evil" or "inferior" because of the color of their skin, which is exactly what Trump has done over and over. Hell even praising another group of people based on the color of their skin is still racism. Judging anybody because of their skin color IS racist.

EDIT: But whatever, it's a big waste of time trying to make people like you see logic. I actually feel sorry for people like you.


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