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Brictoria
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21 May 2020, 1:29 am

Possibly a strange question, but considering the unusual way the presidential election is decided, do the polling companies focus on "popular" vote as a metric for their predictions, or are there some that delve further and try to anticipate/predict electoral college votes based on each state's results in the "popular vote" polling?

After 2016, it would be interesting (if this is done) to see how each party is progressing on the likelihood of winning this year, rather than who is winning the popularity contest. The changes over time to this would also be intersting to watch.


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21 May 2020, 2:45 am

Brictoria wrote:
Possibly a strange question, but considering the unusual way the presidential election is decided, do the polling companies focus on "popular" vote as a metric for their predictions, or are there some that delve further and try to anticipate/predict electoral college votes based on each state's results in the "popular vote" polling?

After 2016, it would be interesting (if this is done) to see how each party is progressing on the likelihood of winning this year, rather than who is winning the popularity contest. The changes over time to this would also be intersting to watch.

It depends on the polling company. There are a number of organizations that poll just particular states or break it down by states.


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Brictoria
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21 May 2020, 8:56 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
Brictoria wrote:
Possibly a strange question, but considering the unusual way the presidential election is decided, do the polling companies focus on "popular" vote as a metric for their predictions, or are there some that delve further and try to anticipate/predict electoral college votes based on each state's results in the "popular vote" polling?

After 2016, it would be interesting (if this is done) to see how each party is progressing on the likelihood of winning this year, rather than who is winning the popularity contest. The changes over time to this would also be intersting to watch.

It depends on the polling company. There are a number of organizations that poll just particular states or break it down by states.


Thanks for that info.

It's unfortunate that there isn't a company who polls all states (same question(s) at same point in time) in order to get a more accurate suggestion of likely results. Having different companies asking questions, or asking the same question at different times can't really be used in a predictive\reference role, as the wording of the question or conditions at the time of survey would impact on results.


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22 May 2020, 2:09 am

Darmok wrote:
Image


you could honestly erase "campaign" and it would still be accurate. can't believe some people still call this controversial but ANYONE who bleeds from the eye, can't carry a sentence even when they're reading from a script and has to limit their rally presence for seven minutes... cannot have much life and vigor left in them

auntblabby wrote:
if biden foolishly chooses another white conservative guy, trump is gonna win a LANDSLIDE. the progressives will NOT vote for biden if he doesn't at least throw them a bone. they will stay home and let this country finish destroying itself.


this is true. i am one of such progressives.

the whole rotten structure should have been dismantled generations ago.


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22 May 2020, 3:00 am

Kiprobalhato wrote:

you could honestly erase "campaign" and it would still be accurate. can't believe some people still call this controversial but ANYONE who bleeds from the eye, can't carry a sentence even when they're reading from a script and has to limit their rally presence for seven minutes... cannot have much life and vigor left in them

Watch the guy talk. He’s got plenty of life in him. He probably won’t run in 2024 but in 2020 he’s more than up to it.

Check out his Wired autocomplete interview for example, rather than “gotcha” moments put together by his enemies. Any candidate can be made to seem stupid in attack ads, but if you actually listen to Biden speak then it’s clear he’s got it 100% together.



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22 May 2020, 3:12 am

biden's in a tough spot- he chooses a white bread rightist veep and he's lost, because harry truman said it best when he said [paraphrased] "given a choice, the american voter will always choose a real republican over an imitation republican"- if instead biden chooses somebody the progressives are warmer to, esp. if they are female or black, the magas will see that like an enraged bull sees a red flag and be like hornets in a disturbed nest, meaning they will move mountains to vote for trumpy and harass/intimidate poor/colored lefties away from the polls via a myriad of dirty tricks such as fake poll watcher thugs. either way, the magas will not be moved/never admit their error, and the progressives will not bend more than a tiny bit. irresistible force meets immovable object. either way, my projection is that trumpy does a repeat of '16 [only closer to where it might take weeks to determine the result] and it will cause something uncomfortably close to a civil war here which will last well into the new year.



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22 May 2020, 9:58 am

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/1 ... ite-248615

Jamaican And Indian Almost as Great
As Kenyan And American; She Won't Be Afraid;
Some Folks Work For Their Meals; Just A Favored A Prediction..;)


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22 May 2020, 11:41 am

Bret Baier @BretBaier 8:52 AM · May 22, 2020
This morning on “The Breakfast Club” - the presumptive Democratic nominee @JoeBiden said this - “If you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then you ain't black."


https://twitter.com/BretBaier/status/12 ... 2738714625


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22 May 2020, 6:57 pm

I'll be interested to find out just how many people will still support someone whose actions, or lack thereof, lead to the US having the highest pandemic death toll of any country, both quantitatively and percentage-wise. I do wonder how high that death toll has to climb before Americans say enough is enough.



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22 May 2020, 7:26 pm

Darmok wrote:
Bret Baier @BretBaier 8:52 AM · May 22, 2020
This morning on “The Breakfast Club” - the presumptive Democratic nominee @JoeBiden said this - “If you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then you ain't black."


https://twitter.com/BretBaier/status/12 ... 2738714625


How is this man the best Dems could come up with?


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Brictoria
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23 May 2020, 12:57 am

funeralxempire wrote:
Darmok wrote:
Bret Baier @BretBaier 8:52 AM · May 22, 2020
This morning on “The Breakfast Club” - the presumptive Democratic nominee @JoeBiden said this - “If you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then you ain't black."


https://twitter.com/BretBaier/status/12 ... 2738714625


How is this man the best Dems could come up with?


From what I have seen, the Democrats based their "debates" and participation in them on who could raise the most money, not most individuals willing to donate to their campaign, meaning if a candidate can get the 1% or big corproations to make a donation that was the equivalent of lose change to them, this was more valuable than a large number of individuals making a sacrifice to donate from their savings.

As to his recent comment, I can't decide if it was racist, or just extremely condescending.


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23 May 2020, 1:05 am

Brictoria wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
Darmok wrote:
Bret Baier @BretBaier 8:52 AM · May 22, 2020
This morning on “The Breakfast Club” - the presumptive Democratic nominee @JoeBiden said this - “If you have a problem figuring out whether you're for me or Trump, then you ain't black."


https://twitter.com/BretBaier/status/12 ... 2738714625


How is this man the best Dems could come up with?


From what I have seen, the Democrats based their "debates" and participation in them on who could raise the most money, not most individuals willing to donate to their campaign, meaning if a candidate can get the 1% or big corproations to make a donation that was the equivalent of lose change to them, this was more valuable than a large number of individuals making a sacrifice to donate from their savings.

As to his recent comment, I can't decide if it was racist, or just extremely condescending.


Why can't it be both? I find it more problematic for it's condescending tone than the mild racism, but that doesn't mean it doesn't also come off as racist.

For what it's worth, I was largely thinking rhetorically. Any random dog would be a better candidate than either major party is offering right now and given the disdain Trump seems to express towards dogs, the debates would suddenly be worth watching.


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23 May 2020, 3:15 am

Tross wrote:
I'll be interested to find out just how many people will still support someone whose actions, or lack thereof, lead to the US having the highest pandemic death toll of any country, both quantitatively and percentage-wise. I do wonder how high that death toll has to climb before Americans say enough is enough.

IMHO the maga mindset is "kill 'em all and let god sort it out." IOW the more deaths, the more they will reflexively blame the leftists for it all. total bloodymindedness going on there.



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23 May 2020, 1:13 pm

auntblabby wrote:
Tross wrote:
I'll be interested to find out just how many people will still support someone whose actions, or lack thereof, lead to the US having the highest pandemic death toll of any country, both quantitatively and percentage-wise. I do wonder how high that death toll has to climb before Americans say enough is enough.

IMHO the maga mindset is "kill 'em all and let god sort it out." IOW the more deaths, the more they will reflexively blame the leftists for it all. total bloodymindedness going on there.

I wonder if the orange ape could go to town on a city block with a SMG and still have his loyalists support him. I don't get it, and I never will.



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24 May 2020, 8:23 am

Tross wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
Tross wrote:
I'll be interested to find out just how many people will still support someone whose actions, or lack thereof, lead to the US having the highest pandemic death toll of any country, both quantitatively and percentage-wise. I do wonder how high that death toll has to climb before Americans say enough is enough.

IMHO the maga mindset is "kill 'em all and let god sort it out." IOW the more deaths, the more they will reflexively blame the leftists for it all. total bloodymindedness going on there.

I wonder if the orange ape could go to town on a city block with a SMG and still have his loyalists support him. I don't get it, and I never will.

that, OR he could be caught in bed with putin, and his magas would shout in unison, "FAKE NEWS!" those people are lost to us, they will never change.



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24 May 2020, 9:40 am

auntblabby wrote:
Tross wrote:
auntblabby wrote:
Tross wrote:
I'll be interested to find out just how many people will still support someone whose actions, or lack thereof, lead to the US having the highest pandemic death toll of any country, both quantitatively and percentage-wise. I do wonder how high that death toll has to climb before Americans say enough is enough.

IMHO the maga mindset is "kill 'em all and let god sort it out." IOW the more deaths, the more they will reflexively blame the leftists for it all. total bloodymindedness going on there.

I wonder if the orange ape could go to town on a city block with a SMG and still have his loyalists support him. I don't get it, and I never will.

that, OR he could be caught in bed with putin, and his magas would shout in unison, "FAKE NEWS!" those people are lost to us, they will never change.

They would say while sometimes he does things we don’t like we still support him, and the real issue is that the deep state media is writing about this while covering up Obamagate to get Biden elected.


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