Tropical System Dorian

Post Reply New Topic

National Hurricane Center

At this point, they feel that it will remain a tropical storm in Puerto Rico, and that it might not affect the Virgin Islands too much.

It is said that southwest Puerto Rico will be affected the most.

San Juan is forecast to have moderate winds (about 17 mph) and heavy rain. Locally around 4 inches---likely less. Possible flooding.

Charlotte Amalie, the capital of the Virgin Island: the same.

Of course, all this is subject to change.

It isn't supposed to be coming to the US mainland, is it?

They say it's on a possible track for the Florida coast for the weekend. There is much uncertainly in this forecast. It's possible the storm might become weakened by the mountains of Hispaniola. At this point, the forecast is for it to remain a tropical storm when and if it hits the Florida coast.

It is recommended that Florida interests watch the progress of Dorian.

Hopefully, they will dodge a bullet.

The forecast for San Juan is still only fresh breezes and heavy rain. But it did say there was a 54% probability of sustained 34-knot winds. And a 7% probability of 50-knot winds.

St. Croix has a better shot of tropical force winds than St. Thomas.

Tropical Storm conditions expected for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

For San Juan: 81% probability of sustained 34 knot winds (minimal tropical storm).

17% for 50 knot winds

1% for 64 knot winds (minimal hurricane winds).


St Thomas, Virgin Islands: 91, 21, 3

St Croix: 99, 67, 7

Update:

St Thomas is getting hammered with tropical storm winds now. Outside shot (12%) of 64 Knot, hurricane winds.

St Croix has a 88% chance of 34 Knot winds; 28% chance of 50 Knot winds; 1% chance of 64 Knot winds

But San Juan, PR's probabilities have gone down considerably: 18% for 34 Knot winds, and 6% for 50 Knot winds. No chance of hurricane winds. There's the potential for lots of flooding rain, though.

At this point, the focus in Florida is on Cocoa Beach, where there is a 77% probability of 34 Knot winds, 46% of 50 Knot; and 23% of 64 Knot winds.

Yep. They're talking Category 3 now.

This is 4-5 days from now. Anything can happen.

If San Juan was largely spared, it would seem that most of Puerto Rico, except maybe for the eastern portion, was also largely spared.

Update:

San Juan didn't get much rain: 0.07 of an inch, and had only one gust of 35 mph.

St Thomas had a gust of 70 mph; mostly, the gusts were in the 40's. A little more than an inch of rain.

Most likely, most of Puerto Rico dodged a bullet. Perhaps, the Virgin Islands didn't suffer much damage as well.

I'll have to read up on the impacts of Dorian in the area

Even if it misses every major city on the southern east coast, this will definitely hurt a lot more places economically with a potential landfall in many tourist meccas right on Labor Day weekend. Hopefully it does not cross Florida and reenter warm waters in the Gulf as Katrina and Andrew did.

My step-daughter's burial is Friday, we are coastal and right in the path. Most Floridians have a 'baseline' readiness. But, we prepped a little yesterday, just the same. I pray that we can at least accomplish her services before the outer rain bands start.