Trump trailing in the polls

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A Quinnipiac university poll finds Trump trailing democratic canidates in the polls

Trump trails Biden by 16 points

Buttigieg by 9 points

former Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren,Vermont senator Bernie Sanders,California senator Kamala Harris all lead Trump as well by at least 5 points

Deja Vu?

I am suprised Biden is doing so well with all the crazy things he says,I would have though Elizabeth Warren would have been ahead.then again she has baggage too

In 2016 hardly anybody predicted Trump would have even a minimal chance at winning. They read the poll numbers with their own prejudices and were not looking at what the data was saying. Before the primaries as commentators we laughing at the very thought of Trump winning even though he was consistently leading in the primary polls similar to Joe Biden now. During the general election he would be within range say something outrageous fall 7 or 8 points behind it seemed over the pundit world breathed a sigh of relief then he would bounce back within range. Right before the election polls had Hillary with a three or four point lead. She won the popular vote by 2.9 percent. The idea of catastrophic poll failure in 2016 is an urban legend, the catastrophic failures occurred elsewhere.

What I see now is a typical American overcorrection reaction both by panicked progressives and cocky Trump supporters.

Of course anything can happen and we are months away from the first actual votes being counted but right now it is not looking good for Trump at all despite the Democrats seemingly handing him weapon after weapon. First of all what are the chances that if Trump loses the popular vote by 2 or more points he will win the electoral college again?

First he has to get 46 percent of the electorate to vote for him again to even get back to where he was in 2016. There is no sign he is willing or able to do that, to go beyond his very loyal base.

2020 will not be 2016. In 2016 nobody thought he was going to win and even if he did the office would humble him. Those delusions are long gone.

In conclusion in order for Trump to be reelected the democrats have to have a catastrophic failure multiple times worse then what they did in 2016. Based on the debates and the campaign so far and the history of that party there are reasons to be queasy if you hate Trump. But right now the numbers are much more suggestive of him losing in a landslide both in popular vote and electoral college then him being reelected.

Gee! That is what they said last time. Polls can be very unreliable and biased even on the best of days.

Polls are basically meaningless to me because usually only 1000 to 1500 people are polled. I am no good at math but figuratively speaking that is like 0.1% of the US population.

I think we can all agree the statistical validity of electoral polling has taken a battering in the last 5 years with Brexit, Trump and the Australian labor party losing the unloose-able election.

Democrats could win easily.

However, poor people, minorities and young people are the worst at actually voting.

Big question. Will 77 year old, establishment, white man, Joe Biden excite people to show up?

"The Party of Nonvoters: Younger, More Racially Diverse, More Financially Strapped"
https://www.people-press.org/2014/10/31 ... nvoters-2/

Perhaps Trump will be beaten by Democratic candidate [ insert candidate here ] by a landslide.

Are people forgetting Trump has something no other candidate has to ensure success?

Many real conservatives are less than happy with Trump's continued idiotic tweets and lies. The only thing make Trump seem at all conservative is the adults in the room, but they aren't enough on some issues.