Moody’s Analytics: TRUMP is on his way to an easy 2020 win

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I don't feel Trump will win in 2020.

It doesn't matter what I felt in 2016. Many things happened between 2016 and 2019.

I'm rewriting America's new national anthem based on "The Rains of Castamere" from Game of Thrones.



In a coat of brown, or a coat of white
An eagle still has claws!
And mine are long and sharp my lord
As long and sharp as yours!
And so he spoke, and so he spoke
The President of the USA
And now the rains weep o'er his hall
With no one there to hear...
Yes now the rains weep o'er his hall
And not a soul to hear...

If Trump was a normal president in his demeanor and actions, his approval rating would be ~60% with the underlying economic fundamentals. Instead he hovers around 40% because of scandals and rhetoric.

The underlying fundamentals suggest he won't be easily beaten in 2020, but the consistent low approval suggests he won't win easily either. If things are mostly the same in 2020 expect a close election.

I think because most people dismissed out of hand Trump’s chances of winning in 2016 they are overcorrecting and giving him more of a chance of winning then he has in 2020.

It has become urban legend that the polls totally blew it in 2016 therefore Trump’s low poll numbers are being dismissed. The polls did not blow it, the meta polls right before the election had Hillary winning the popular vote by 3 or 4 percent, she won by 2.9 percent well within the margin of error.

If the Democratic candidate wins by 2.9 percent it is not likely they will lose the electoral college again, for one thing they are not taking for granted the “blue wall” states this time around, why do you think last nights debate was in Ohio?

Unlike in 2016 the idea of Trump winning is not unthinkable, the idea that the office will make Trump more Presidential shredded.

Even if the democrats were somehow idiotic enough to nominate Hillary again she would most likely win the rematch comfortably. They won’t

There is still a not unjustified fear that the Dems are blowing by it spending time on impeachment at the expense of the candidates, spending too much time on woke politics such as gender pronouns, reparations, socialism. Unless Trump’s approval ratings finally go up beyond 42 to 44 the dems are most likely to win despite themselves. In other words if you are anti Trump but also do not like the resistance, wokeness, or socialism your main worry should not be Trumps reelection but what a post blue wave America will look like.

I myself have some concerns that while not totally blowing the election, they might make it close enough so that Trump will claim that he was cheated, not leave office, the hardcore MAGA’s will be fully onboard and things will get really ugly.

Why aren't people talking about how Trump, in 2016, narrowly won states which usually vote Democratic...and won them by the slimmest of margins?

If Trump loses those states in 2020 which he narrowly won in 2016, he's lost the election. It's those "swing states" that are the most important. Most states, at this point, are inevitably "Democrat," or inevitably "Republican."