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Misslizard
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02 Aug 2020, 8:22 am

blooiejagwa wrote:
Misslizard wrote:
Three deaths in the local nursing home. :cry:
https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/202 ... me/?latest


Sorry for sounding flippant (thank God fr online thesaurus as no other word Was fitting) possibly- not intentional - but nursing home deaths are to be expected even with a flu or cold things spiral, no? My sister workswith the elderly and has done so for years and before that volunteered during high school at care home. Caring for the elderly in our community is like a passion of hers..

Regularly she has told me of X number of people dying in a short span of time- the same week (prior to covid19)

It’s the biggest outbreak in our small county.They weren’t letting visitors in so they think a staff member was sick and infected almost all the residents and twenty-seven staff members.Even with all the safety protocols in place.
We had under ten cases in t he county before this.
Several of my neighbors work there, I hope they don’t catch it.


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02 Aug 2020, 10:10 am

Oh.. Ok.. I thought i was being reassuring by speculating that it is part of the usual and that things might still be ok but it seems the facts are not gonna support that.


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02 Aug 2020, 10:25 am

IS CORONAVIRUS DEATHS SURGING OR DECLINING?

It is common to hear that coronavirus deaths are declining in this region of the world while in others it is exploding. But do these so called unnamed experts on track. It is really hard to look at numbers because so many of them are unreliable. For example the family of 7 Amish who were washed away in a flood and drowned in my area had coronavirus listed as the cause of their death on their death certificates when none of them had the disease.

I think magz has the best approach. Instead of tracking coronavirus deaths, just look at the number of deaths against the last 10 year average by each week of the years. We are currently at the end of week 31 of the years. U.C. Berkeley has generated a website to track this for several countries.

Short-term Mortality Fluctuations

The latest update on this site was 7/30/20.

As of week 27, total deaths in the U.S. were around 7,000 less than normal.

The latest data on Italy showed they had fewer deaths than normal for this time of year.
Spain had slightly more deaths than normal for this time of year but not by much.
France just slightly below normal.
England and Wales are at normal levels.
Germany is close to normal.
Austria is higher than normal. Might be still a bit of a hot spot.
Belgium is below normal.
Sweden is below normal.

So in general, there is a lack of evidence for a major surge in coronavirus deaths at the country level in the U.S. and Europe.

One of the reasons why countries might show a negative mortality trend is because many of those that die each year are those in nursing homes. They are at death's door. The coronavirus ended their lives prematurely. But had they lived, their lives would still end, just a few weeks/months later. They had serious co-morbidities.

So if they died at week 15 (the peak of the death rate), those individuals would be missing in week 30 mortality figures and as a result drive the fluctuation negative.


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02 Aug 2020, 10:45 am

blooiejagwa wrote:
Oh.. Ok.. I thought i was being reassuring by speculating that it is part of the usual and that things might still be ok but it seems the facts are not gonna support that.

I think many people in rural areas didn’t take it seriously.Now I see most people wearing masks.Now they know its real and it’s here.


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jimmy m
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04 Aug 2020, 5:45 pm

MODELING CORONAVIRUS AEROSOL TRANSMISSION ABOARD THE DIAMOND PRINCESS

A computer model of the cruise-ship outbreak found that the virus spread most readily in microscopic droplets light enough to linger in the air.

Image

On Jan. 20, one infected passenger boarded the cruise ship; a month later, more than 700 of the 3,711 passengers and crew members had tested positive, with many falling seriously ill. The invader moved as swiftly and invisibly as the perpetrators on Agatha Christie’s Orient Express, leaving doctors and health officials with only fragmentary evidence to sift through.

In the new analysis, a team led by Parham Azimi, an indoor-air researcher at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, studied the outbreak on the Diamond Princess, where physical spaces and infections were well documented. It ran more than 20,000 simulations of how the virus might have spread throughout the ship. Each simulation made a variety of assumptions, about factors like patterns of social interaction — how much time people spent in their cabins, on deck or in the cafeteria, on average — and the amount of time the virus can live on surfaces. Each also factored in varying contributions of smaller, floating droplets, broadly defined as 10 microns or smaller; and larger droplets, which fall more quickly and infect surfaces or other people, by landing on their eyes, mouth or nose, say.

About 130 of those simulations reproduced, to some extent, what actually happened on the Diamond Princess as the outbreak progressed. By analyzing these most “realistic” scenarios, the research team calculated the most likely contributions of each route of transmission. The researchers concluded that the smaller droplets predominated, and accounted for about 60 percent of new infections over all, both at close range, within a few yards of an infectious person, and at greater distances.

The logic behind such transmission is straightforward, experts said. When a person is speaking, he or she emits a cloud of droplets, the vast majority of which are small enough to remain suspended in the air for a few minutes or longer. Through inhalation, that cloud of small droplets is more likely to reach a mucus membrane than larger ones soaring ballistically.

The smaller droplets are also more likely to penetrate deeply into the respiratory system, down to the lungs. It may take a much smaller viral load — fewer viruses — to cause infection in the lungs than higher up, such as in the throat. This, at least, is the case for other respiratory viruses, like the flu.

Brent Stephens, an engineering professor at the Illinois Institute of Technology in Chicago and a co-author on the paper, said the findings were important in shaping, for example, measures that should be taken as college students return to campus.

The first, he said, should be “really enforcing mask policies.” Another, he said, is to recognize that there is a “huge variability in mask quality,” and material that actually stops small aerosols when someone is breathing, speaking, coughing or sneezing is crucial. Surgical masks are good, he said, but single-ply fabrics often are not.

As various transmission routes come into clearer focus, they will provide specific guidelines on how to reopen schools, offices, restaurants and other businesses.

Dr. Allen said those environments ranged from restaurants to dentist offices. In each case, he said, there are low-cost solutions that sharply improve ventilation and filtration — most buildings fall well short of optimal levels — and in turn reduce the risks of airborne infection.

“To me, this is an all-in moment,” Dr. Allen said. “We need better ventilation and better filtration, across the board, in all our buildings.”

Source: Aboard the Diamond Princess, a Case Study in Aerosol Transmission


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04 Aug 2020, 5:59 pm

New research with potentially wide-ranging implications concludes aerosol inhalation was likely the dominant way COVID-19 spread aboard Diamond Princess.

Moreover, close-range and long-range transmission likely contributed similarly to disease progression aboard the ship, with fomite (surface) transmission playing a smaller role, researchers at Harvard and the Illinois Institute of Technology said.

Image

The current prevailing position is that coronavirus is transmitted primarily through large respiratory droplets within close proximity of infected individuals. However, quantitative information on the relative importance of specific transmission pathways — droplets, aerosols and fomites across short- and long-range distances — remains limited.

Their paper — which has yet to be peer-reviewed — shows the long-range transmission of aerosols containing the virus was most likely the dominant mode of COVID-19 spread even though Diamond Princess had a very high ventilation rate and no recirculated air.

New research with potentially wide-ranging implications concludes aerosol inhalation was likely the dominant way COVID-19 spread aboard Diamond Princess.

Moreover, close-range and long-range transmission likely contributed similarly to disease progression aboard the ship, with fomite (surface) transmission playing a smaller role, researchers at Harvard and the Illinois Institute of Technology said.

Findings counter prevailing notions of transmission. The current prevailing position is that coronavirus is transmitted primarily through large respiratory droplets within close proximity of infected individuals. However, quantitative information on the relative importance of specific transmission pathways — droplets, aerosols and fomites across short- and long-range distances — remains limited.

So the researchers developed computer modeling to study the ways the virus was transmitted on the quarantined ship.

However, aerosol transmission across both short- and long-range distances accounted for more than 70% of disease transmission overall, which is contrary to the prevailing positions on how COVID-19 is spread.

The researchers conluded: 'Although cruise ships represent unique built environments with high ventilation rates and no air recirculation, these findings underscore the importance of implementing public health measures that target the control of inhalation of small aerosols in addition to ongoing measures targeting control of large droplet and fomite (touch) transmission.'

'So wearing good-quality masks — standard surgical masks, or cloth masks with multiple layers rather than just one — will most likely be needed as well, even in well-ventilated spaces where people are keeping their distance.'

Source: Study finds aerosol inhalation likely main way coronavirus spread on Diamond Princess

So if you want to avoid becoming infected in high density spaces (such as cruise ships, aircraft, subways, buses, trains, elevators) then wearing face mask is important but more so the quality of the face mask. N95 are an effective tool for surviving this pandemic.


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05 Aug 2020, 5:42 am

It took 6 months for my city to take this virus seriously enough to close the schools and muzzle people. However, kids under 12 are not required to wear masks... Honestly, it's just prolonging everything because kids are the biggest spreaders of viruses. They haven't been socialised to cough into their hands and they can't keep their hands to themselves. They went about this the total opposite way, locking up the elderly and leaving the kids free to spread this virus like wildfire. They couldn't be more wrong about kids, by the way; children are the most compliant people in society if they are taught how, so why aren't they included in these measures? By the time our government wakes up, it will be too late for many people's lives and livelihoods. Stay safe everyone.


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05 Aug 2020, 1:31 pm

I, and many others who I know, think that all this is a conspiracy. I reckon that most of the leaders got together with China to release this virus so that they can save money by killing off the elderly and the physically vulnerable in the most humane way possible (because they are like a burden on health care), and covering it up by making it look like they are 'safeguarding' everybody (especially the elderly and the vulnerable) from the virus, when really all the 'free countries' are now becoming dictatorships.

If this is true, I think it's a ridiculous idea because really it is costing the government billions more by furloughing thousands if not millions of people and facing a world recession that will cost billions more and will have to pay millions of people unemployment benefits.


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magz
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05 Aug 2020, 2:15 pm

Joe90 wrote:
I, and many others who I know, think that all this is a conspiracy. I reckon that most of the leaders got together with China to release this virus so that they can save money by killing off the elderly and the physically vulnerable in the most humane way possible (because they are like a burden on health care), and covering it up by making it look like they are 'safeguarding' everybody (especially the elderly and the vulnerable) from the virus, when really all the 'free countries' are now becoming dictatorships.

If this is true, I think it's a ridiculous idea because really it is costing the government billions more by furloughing thousands if not millions of people and facing a world recession that will cost billions more and will have to pay millions of people unemployment benefits.

That's exactly why the conspiracy is very unlikely to be true.
Natural introduction of a new disease in a world of 7,800,000,000 people travelling freely is, unfortunately, very likely to happen sooner or later. We should learn now for likely future outbreaks.


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05 Aug 2020, 4:02 pm

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2 ... r-find-out

Local lockdown tracker for UK.


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blooiejagwa
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05 Aug 2020, 6:11 pm

Alita wrote:
It took 6 months for my city to take this virus seriously enough to close the schools and muzzle people. However, kids under 12 are not required to wear masks... Honestly, it's just prolonging everything because kids are the biggest spreaders of viruses. They haven't been socialised to cough into their hands and they can't keep their hands to themselves. They went about this the total opposite way, locking up the elderly and leaving the kids free to spread this virus like wildfire. They couldn't be more wrong about kids, by the way; children are the most compliant people in society if they are taught how, so why aren't they included in these measures? By the time our government wakes up, it will be too late for many people's lives and livelihoods. Stay safe everyone.


You obviously don't have kids 8O


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blooiejagwa
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05 Aug 2020, 6:15 pm

magz wrote:
Joe90 wrote:
I, and many others who I know, think that all this is a conspiracy. I reckon that most of the leaders got together with China to release this virus so that they can save money by killing off the elderly and the physically vulnerable in the most humane way possible (because they are like a burden on health care), and covering it up by making it look like they are 'safeguarding' everybody (especially the elderly and the vulnerable) from the virus, when really all the 'free countries' are now becoming dictatorships.

If this is true, I think it's a ridiculous idea because really it is costing the government billions more by furloughing thousands if not millions of people and facing a world recession that will cost billions more and will have to pay millions of people unemployment benefits.

That's exactly why the conspiracy is very unlikely to be true.
Natural introduction of a new disease in a world of 7,800,000,000 people travelling freely is, unfortunately, very likely to happen sooner or later. We should learn now for likely future outbreaks.


If anything the conspiracy aspect would be (as you might havr heard of) a possible cure or many available that would make this negligible and help us resume normal life, but kept hidden or denounced by WHO (same asses who wrote officially for Africa and it was on their twitter for Ethiopia among other countries that it isn't airborne while telling the rest of the world it was among other things reason I know is my brother shared it on his twitter gleefully before deleting it once he realized the discrepancy)
While a vaccine is worked on
Vaccine will generate way more profit as nurses and my mom who used to be a docyor both told me (they believe the above and Im simply paraphrasing 3 ppls thoughts which are virtually the same)


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magz
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06 Aug 2020, 3:05 am

blooiejagwa wrote:
Alita wrote:
It took 6 months for my city to take this virus seriously enough to close the schools and muzzle people. However, kids under 12 are not required to wear masks... Honestly, it's just prolonging everything because kids are the biggest spreaders of viruses. They haven't been socialised to cough into their hands and they can't keep their hands to themselves. They went about this the total opposite way, locking up the elderly and leaving the kids free to spread this virus like wildfire. They couldn't be more wrong about kids, by the way; children are the most compliant people in society if they are taught how, so why aren't they included in these measures? By the time our government wakes up, it will be too late for many people's lives and livelihoods. Stay safe everyone.

You obviously don't have kids 8O

"Children are the most compliant people in society if they are taught how"? Yeah, as far from reality as possible. Unless you use childrearing methods from 18th century German handbooks... but that would put you in trouble with the law, not to mention further problems with emotional and social development.

And this is exactly why school closures slow spread of the virus. There are intensive debates in my country, how to reopen schools in September not to end up with teachers and parents all sick. One of the starting points is - kids just can't be trusted to socially distance.


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06 Aug 2020, 10:48 am

Los Angeles Mayor Says City May Shut Off Water, Power At Houses Hosting Large Parties

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Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti announced on Wednesday that he is authorizing the city to shut off water and power service to properties hosting large house parties, which he said had "essentially become nightclubs in the hills."

In a briefing, Garcetti expressed concerns about reports of large parties and gatherings that violate public health orders, often taking place at homes that are vacant or being used as short-term rentals.

Starting Friday night, he said, houses, businesses and other venues hosting "un-permitted large gatherings" will face tougher consequences.

"If the LAPD responds and verifies that a large gathering is occurring at a property, and we see these properties reoffending time and time again, they will provide notice and initiate the process to request that [the Department of Water and Power] shut off service within the next 48 hours," Garcetti said.

Large gatherings of any kind are prohibited under the county's public health orders aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19, which sharply intensified statewide earlier this summer.

Los Angeles County has more total coronavirus cases than any county in the U.S., according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

And on Wednesday, local health officials said the number of cases has been undercounted due to issues with the state's electronic laboratory system.

Garcetti added that while he hopes residents will avoid gatherings of all sizes, this enforcement will not focus on small or ordinary get-togethers. Rather, it will focus on people he described as "determined to break the rules," who pose a significant threat to public health.

"The consequences of these large parties ripple far beyond just those parties," Garcetti said. "They ripple throughout our entire community because the virus can quickly and easily spread."

Large, in-person gatherings where people are not wearing face coverings and social distancing is difficult are among the highest risk settings, Garcetti said, citing health officials.

Reports of such gatherings have drawn scrutiny in recent days, especially after a 200-person party at a Mulholland Drive mansion ended in a fatal shooting on Monday.

The Los Angeles Times reports there have been other large house parties during the pandemic and that the county is investigating a "first responders" party that was held last week at a Hollywood bar, indoors and without social distancing.

Earlier on Wednesday, Los Angeles City Councilman David Ryu introduced a motion to crack down on "COVID party houses" by increasing penalties and deterrence options against property owners.

The motion included water and power shutoffs on its list of suggested penalties.

Such a consequence is not entirely unheard of. In June, the town of Oxford, Mass., shut off water and electricity to a gym after its owner repeatedly defied the state's shutdown order.

Also on Wednesday, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said that nearly 60% of new COVID-19 cases are occurring in residents between the ages of 18 and 49.

Individuals between the ages of 30 and 49 have the highest case rate among all age groups in the county, and case rates for this group have almost tripled since the start of June. Health officials said that patients between the ages of 18 and 29 now account for more than twice the proportion of all hospitalizations than they did in April.

Director of Public Health Barbara Ferrer urged younger adults to consider the potential risks that attending a party may pose to their health and the health of older relatives.

"We can and will one day get to the point where hanging out with a group of friends is possible," she said. "But we aren't there yet."


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06 Aug 2020, 6:37 pm

magz wrote:
blooiejagwa wrote:
Alita wrote:
It took 6 months for my city to take this virus seriously enough to close the schools and muzzle people. However, kids under 12 are not required to wear masks... Honestly, it's just prolonging everything because kids are the biggest spreaders of viruses. They haven't been socialised to cough into their hands and they can't keep their hands to themselves. They went about this the total opposite way, locking up the elderly and leaving the kids free to spread this virus like wildfire. They couldn't be more wrong about kids, by the way; children are the most compliant people in society if they are taught how, so why aren't they included in these measures? By the time our government wakes up, it will be too late for many people's lives and livelihoods. Stay safe everyone.

You obviously don't have kids 8O

"Children are the most compliant people in society if they are taught how"? Yeah, as far from reality as possible. Unless you use childrearing methods from 18th century German handbooks... but that would put you in trouble with the law, not to mention further problems with emotional and social development.

And this is exactly why school closures slow spread of the virus. There are intensive debates in my country, how to reopen schools in September not to end up with teachers and parents all sick. One of the starting points is - kids just can't be trusted to socially distance.


I would agree except after reading various reports about here particularly
.

I see thar It makes sense to reduce classes to 15 students per clads in Canada because the spread here has been slow now and cases dwindled to almost 1% according to a nation wide study using blood samples.

15 students and X number of teachers and if their own families continue to follow the guidelines - situation is very manageable.

The fear factor is out of control and it seems there might be a hybrid of online learning and in person in small groups
but the numbers make sense for a gradual re opening with all the measures they have planned for in place.

To be honest it's been shown in places that young adults/teens seem to be the least prone to following the guidelines.


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06 Aug 2020, 8:40 pm

The social distance element is a completely different matter and that's why the schools shut. But teaching kids to wear masks during a pandemic is no different to teaching them to put on seat belts in the car. A simple: "no mask, no outing" approach is all it takes. As an ex-schoolteacher, I know what I'm talking about. Parents often let kids down by pampering them unnecessarily and trying to be their friend instead of their parent.


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