Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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A long and detailed interview with a top epidemiologist. Well worth reading.


‘We could open up again and forget the whole thing’
Epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski on the deadly consequences of lockdown.

Governments around the world say they are following ‘The Science’ with their draconian measures to stem the spread of the virus. But the science around Covid-19 is bitterly contested. Many experts have serious doubts about the effectiveness of the measures, and argue that our outsized fears of Covid-19 are not justified. Knut Wittkowski is one such expert who has long argued for a change of course. For 20 years, Wittkowski was the head of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University’s Center for Clinical and Translational Science. spiked spoke to him to find out more about the pandemic.

spiked: Is Covid-19 dangerous?

Knut Wittkowski: No, unless you have age-related severe comorbidities. So if you are in a nursing home because you cannot live by yourself anymore, then getting infected is dangerous.

We had the other extreme in Switzerland, which was hit pretty hard. There was one child that died. People believed that this child was born in 2011. In fact, it was born in 1911, and that was the only child that died. It was a mere coding error. Somebody with the age 108 was coded as aged eight.

spiked: How far along is the epidemic?

Wittkowski: It is over in China. It is over in South Korea. It is substantially down in most of Europe and down a bit everywhere, even in the UK. The UK and Belarus are latecomers, so you do not see exactly what you are seeing in continental Europe. But everywhere in Europe, the number of cases is substantially declining.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/05/1 ... ole-thing/

Wuhan lab admits to having three live strains of bat coronavirus on site

We had much better reporting when we had an infrastructure on newspapers with paid staff throughout the country.
And paid stringers to check up on stuff.

Now, Sports Illustrated has cut way back on paid staff. Can they still put out a quality product?

UK COVID-19 vaccine trial may fail due to low transmission in population
There is a 50% chance the trial may give 'no result.'

Hopes that a vaccine for the coronavirus could be ready by September are hanging in the balance, as the scientists developing it are concerned that a slowdown in the rate of infection in the general population could invalidate the human trials currently taking place.

Prof. Adrian Hill, Director of the Oxford University’s Jenner Institute, has told The Telegraph that there is only a 50-50 chance that the vaccine his team has been developing can be successfully tested.

The team has recruited 10,000 people to test the vaccine, some of whom will be given the vaccine and others a placebo. But as it is unethical to purposely infect people in the trial with COVID-19, participants will be asked to go about their normal routine in the expectation that some will be exposed to it naturally. However, that is unlikely to happen if the virus is not spreading, meaning that no conclusions can be drawn one way or the other about the vaccine's efficacy.

Hill expects that fewer than 50 people in the test population will catch the virus, but if less than 20 test positive the results may be useless.

“It is a race, yes. But it's not a race against the other guys," he said. "It's a race against the virus disappearing – and against time. We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50% chance that we get no result at all.

https://www.jpost.com/international/uk- ... ion-629082

Well I went on an exploratory mission to observe how the post-Covid world is responding.

They opened up Churches this week. So I took my wife and we went. There was extensive social distancing. Everyone wore mask and no contact like handshakes or even social conversations were prohibited. You could only sit in designated spots marked on the pews.

Someone should write a song titled "Me and my N95". I will have to replace my N95 soon. I have gotten 3 months use out of it so far but I fear its life is almost at an end. My wife tried a new design of face mask. Since the ultra fine filter material does not like to be washed. Several people have begun to constructing face mask like a large pocket. They can insert the filter material inside and remove it when the mask is washed to prevent its destruction. She is using the anti tarnish silver material as the filter. So today she had a chance to try it out. She liked the new design.

Then we went to town and spent the whole day shopping. Many stores are opening up and more people are starting to come out of the woodwork. Many are not so focused on wearing mask. I would estimate about 1 month and anyone wearing a mask will be rare and life as much as it can will return back to normal.

They had cherries in the grocery store and I like cherries especially at the start of the season because they are so sweet.

I took my wife to a Mexican Restaurant. They had outdoor seating. Eating outdoors with the breezes and the sun is a fairly safe way to dine in the post-pandemic world.

Macy's Department Store opened up so we went shopping there.

Then I went and got a haircut. I didn't have one for over 2 months, so it was about time. They were able to cut my hair without removing my N95. Every time they cut someones hair, they spent about 10 minutes cleaning up their workstation before they took the next customer. They disinfected the chair, swept the floor, changed the cover cloth etc.

Gasoline prices have been rising and now gasoline is almost $2 per gallon.

Large gathering of idiots flood the pools.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/katv.com/a ... distancing

NORTH KOREAN CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

North Korea has been very tightlipped about the extent of the current pandemic. Even more so than China.

I suspect the country has been hit hard. It is interesting that China has imposed a major lockdown in the Chinese province Jilin that borders North Korea. This may give a feel for the severity in North Korea of the current pandemic.

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The latest outbreak is concentrated in Jilin, a northeastern province of 27 million people that sits near China’s borders with Russia and North Korea. Jilin has reported a small outbreak of about 130 cases and two deaths, but experts there have warned of the threat of a “big explosion.”

The authorities have also imposed a lockdown on parts of Jilin City, a manufacturing base, bringing factories to a standstill and quieting streets. In some areas, residents are allowed to leave their homes only once every two days, and for a maximum of two hours, to shop for groceries. The strictest measures are probably affecting more than 200,000 people in the city [Shulan].

[The reports also hint at a mutation in the virus.] Patients are taking longer than the typical one to two weeks to show symptoms of the illness after being infected, an expert with the National Health Commission, Qiu Haibo, told the state-run broadcaster this week, and they are carrying the virus for a longer period of time.

Source: After New Coronavirus Outbreaks, China Imposes Wuhan-Style Lockdown