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Phantom Lamb
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30 Oct 2021, 3:15 am

ASPartOfMe wrote:
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Covid Cases Are Soaring in Britain Again. Why?
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Once again Britain has one of the highest rates of Covid infection anywhere. The U.K. just reported its biggest single day Covid case increase in three months and a 16% increase in confirmed cases in the week to Oct. 18. The government has warned of a bad winter.

Even in the era of vaccines, the risks aren’t trivial.

While deaths from Covid are now mercifully low, some of those who get infected will end up hospitalized. They will suffer, and occupy beds and health service resources that are already overstretched and coping with a gargantuan backlog of cases. Families will step in; productivity will be lost. Others will end up with Long Covid, whose symptoms last for weeks or months after the virus has cleared. High levels of infection will also increase the risk of new vaccine-resistant strains of the virus.

Although some of the disparity in infection rates between Britain and other countries can be attributed to higher levels of testing (especially in schools and hospitals), testing alone doesn’t explain the gap. Rates of hospitalization and even death are several times higher in the U.K. than in comparable European countries.

Part of the answer seems obvious: Britain reopened in July without guard rails in place. Prime Minister Boris Johnson encouraged the public to get off the pause button and hit “play.” The response was robust. During a recent commute on the London Underground during rush hour, I entered a packed rail car where hardly anyone wore a mask. Ditto for a trip to a full cinema. In Berlin, it’s routine to wear a medical grade N95 equivalent mask. You see them only seldom in London.

Other countries with lax policies (Scandinavian ones, for example) didn’t experience such a spike in cases. Scotland kept a mask mandate in many indoor settings (including schools) and still struggled with a higher infection rate than England in September.

Francois Balloux, Director of the Genetics Institute at University College London, rattled off a half-dozen other inputs into the U.K.’s infection picture. As an early vaccinator, immunity is now waning especially for older people, he told me. (The U.K. also relied heavily on the AstraZeneca Plc vaccine, which offers lower protection from the delta variant.) Other factors such as population density or average household size can also make the U.K. more vulnerable than, say, Denmark.

Another factor too seldom discussed is access to sick pay. There is a large disparity between low rates in the U.K. and more generous levels on the Continent. That has forced many Brits infected by Covid to continue working, spreading the virus to others.

Climate may also affect how easily the virus is transmitted in Britain; other endemic viruses that contribute to the common cold are highly seasonal.

Finally, there is also the new delta variant subtype, known as AY.4.2., which began showing up around July and now accounts for about 8% of genomically sequenced cases in the U.K. Scott Gottlieb, former head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, tweeted about the need for “urgent research” into the subtype, which is not common in the U.S. at present and is considered about 10% more transmissible than delta.

Meanwhile, several factors may combine to send case levels lower in England.

The U.K. still ought to provide a warning for other countries.


Our approach has been shambolic all the way through this, it's no surprise to anyone here that we are back to having some of the highest rates in the world

As a side issue, there was a big story here a month ago where it was discovered that a test lab had been giving out the incorrect results. I got caught up in that! It's said they believe around 43,000 people were. It's going through the schools here like crazy. No testing anymore at schools, no masks, no needing to isolate if you have been with someone who has covid.



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30 Oct 2021, 8:06 am

Phantom Lamb wrote:
It's going through the schools here like crazy. No testing anymore at schools, no masks, no needing to isolate if you have been with someone who has covid.

Yeah, we're in our fourth wave in Michigan, and I rarely ever see masks anymore. The Governor basically gave up and is leaving mandates in the hands of county leaders, and we're seeing some counties trying to ban federal mandates (which I'm pretty sure they can't do).


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31 Oct 2021, 12:29 pm

I rarely see masks now and the ones I do aren’t being worn right and are store employees.
I still wear mine and nobody has ever bothered me about it.
Heaven help them if they do.


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02 Nov 2021, 11:02 am



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04 Nov 2021, 10:03 am

Yahoo!, attributed to NBC News: "U.S. life expectancy falls sharply in 'sobering' loss of young people to Covid"

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The United States had the second-steepest decline in life expectancy among high-income countries last year during the pandemic, according to a study of death data spanning several continents.

The only country studied that saw a starker overall trend was Russia.

The study, published Wednesday in The BMJ (formerly the British Medical Journal), assessed premature death in 37 countries, comparing observed life expectancy in 2020 with what would have been expected for the year based on historical trends from 2005-2019. Life expectancy dropped in 31 of these countries during the pandemic.

The U.S. trend was among the worst.

U.S. men saw life expectancy fall by nearly 2.3 years. Women lost more than 1.6 years of life expectancy.

The measurements provide one of the most comprehensive views of the human cost of the pandemic and illuminates its effects on different age groups and genders. One surprise: The drop in life expectancy in the U.S. was driven by the deaths of young people, said Dr. Nazrul Islam, a researcher at the University of Oxford and the study’s lead author.

In the U.S., “we have lost a huge amount of people at a young age. That’s really, really sobering,” Islam said.


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05 Nov 2021, 7:23 pm

Double Retired wrote:

And we don't even know the long-term effects of the virus, yet.
So many people are having moderate-to-severe organ damage, including the lungs and heart (some even requiring surgery), it's gotta be taking a toll on our lifespan.

Not to mention, the brain damage it's causing...I already have Parkinson's running in my family, I don't need anything else to help my chances along... =(


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06 Nov 2021, 1:56 am

From what I've been hearing, both the virus and the vaccine are causing organ damage.



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06 Nov 2021, 7:25 am

Biden's private sector vaccination mandate has been postponed to Jan 4th.



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06 Nov 2021, 7:27 am

Adverse side effects from the vaccines are much, much rarer than adverse effects from getting COVID.



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08 Nov 2021, 8:40 am

COVID-Vaccine Mandates for Kids Are Coming But are they a good idea?

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COVID-19 vaccination for 5-to-11-year-olds is finally a go. But even as the emergency-use-authorization process unfolded, so too did arguments over whether kids should (or would soon) be forced into getting shots. School mandates for new vaccines tend to lag behind CDC recommendations by about half a decade, but COVID-19 shots appear to be in the express lane. The Los Angeles Unified School District—the nation’s second-largest—will require students 12 or older to be vaccinated by mid-December if they want to continue attending in-person classes. The entire state of California plans to mandate shots for all of its public- and private-school students as soon as vaccines are fully approved for them, and New York City’s mayor-elect has said that he supports the same idea.

The implementation of any statewide K–12 school mandates may still be a while off, given the expected delay before the FDA gives full approval of shots for kids—for reference, the same process for the adult vaccines took eight months.

When state regulators are deciding whether to mandate a given vaccine, they generally consider the risks and benefits—just like the FDA and CDC do when deciding whether to green-light a vaccine—but also how those risks and benefits relate to a school environment, says Mary Anne Jackson, an infectious-disease pediatrician at University of Missouri at Kansas City’s Children’s Mercy Hospital. In addition to being safe and effective, a vaccine should be easy to distribute and well accepted among the medical community and the public.

The most important benefit of mandatory COVID vaccination, as far as parents are concerned, would be its potential to prevent death. COVID-19 has, up to this point, caused relatively few deaths in children ages 5 to 11—66 from October 2020 to October 2021. But we routinely vaccinate schoolkids against diseases that were even less deadly before their respective vaccines were available.

Besides warding off death, COVID vaccines for kids also promise to prevent and mitigate sickness, the long-term effects of which remain unclear in children and adults alike. In data that Pfizer provided to the CDC, the company’s little-kid dose was 90.9 percent effective at staving off symptomatic infections. This level of protection is comparable to that provided by vaccines mandated for elementary schoolers in all 50 states: polio (99 percent), measles (97 percent), chicken pox (94 percent), and pertussis (84 percent).

It’s also important to consider how likely kids are to contract the disease to begin with. The Delta variant appears to be less transmissible among children than chicken pox, measles, and pertussis, and about as transmissible as polio. But we have very little data on how rapidly the Delta variant spreads among schoolchildren in particular, and how much more rapidly it would do so if precautions such as masks and social distancing were removed from schools.

Now for the risks. The main concern with the Pfizer kid vaccine is myocarditis, a condition in which the heart muscle becomes inflamed, leading to symptoms such as chest pain and shortness of breath in children. Non-vaccine-caused myocarditis tends to be rarer in young children than in teens and young adults, and Pfizer’s little-kid trial didn’t result in any recorded cases among its roughly 3,000 vaccine recipients.

COVID-vaccine-induced myocarditis occurs less often than febrile seizures do after the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (about one in 2,500 doses), but more often than a bruising condition called immune thrombocytopenia purpura (one in 30,000). The myocarditis cases are also more common than cases of anaphylaxis after the Hepatitis B vaccine (one in 1.1 million), which is required for elementary schoolers in all but a handful of states.

But the rate of COVID-vaccine-induced myocarditis doesn’t tell us that much on its own. “The question is, how severe is myocarditis?” says Daniel Salmon, who directs the Johns Hopkins Institute for Vaccine Safety. We still don’t really know. According to the CDC, most patients with post-vaccine myocarditis “felt better quickly,” and “can usually return to their normal daily activities after their symptoms improve.” But no one can say yet whether a bout of vaccine-induced myocarditis now would harm someone’s health in a year, or 10 years, or 50.

But if, as some experts (and pharmaceutical-company CEOs) have predicted, the virus changes so much that we’ll need to get a new shot once or twice a year, mandates for schoolchildren would suddenly get a lot more complicated.

Consider the flu vaccine. During the 2019–20 season, 112 children ages 5 to 17 died of flu, yet no state mandates annual flu shots for K–12 students. n contrast, an average of three children and teens a year died of Hepatitis A in the five years before the two-doses-and-that’s-it vaccine for that disease was licensed. Yet Hepatitis A vaccines are mandatory in grade schools in one-third of states. True, the Hepatitis A vaccine is significantly more effective than the annual flu shot, but the flu arguably presents a much more formidable danger to kids.

The miraculous speed at which the COVID vaccines were developed has only made these questions harder to work out. The approaches taken by mayors, governors, and regulators so far suggest that most intend to wait until the FDA grants its full approval for the shots. By then, we should have some more to go on.


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11 Nov 2021, 2:44 pm

After weeks of declines, U.S. Covid cases have stalled at a high level

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After weeks of plunging U.S. Covid-19 cases, the decline in infections has stalled out.

New infections have dropped to an average of more than 74,000 per day over the past week, a 57% fall from the delta wave’s peak level of 172,500 new cases per day on Sept. 13.

While that surely is good news, the downward trajectory has leveled off in recent weeks, bouncing between 70,000 and 75,000 new cases a day for nearly three weeks, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Covid hotspots across the U.S., in the meantime, have shifted away from much of the South.

The daily death toll still remains elevated, with more than 1,200 fatalities per day reported over the past week, up 1% from a week ago, according to Johns Hopkins.

Cases have fallen most sharply in the South, where the delta wave hit earliest and hardest over the summer, with average daily infections in the region down by about 84% from peak levels and continuing to fall. The decline has been so steep that Florida, where hospitals were overrun as it fought one of the worst Covid outbreaks in the nation this summer, is now the state with the fewest number of average daily new cases on a population-adjusted basis.

Hospitalizations and deaths are also down in the South. The region’s seven-day average of 112 Covid patients per 1 million residents is the lowest in the country, according to a CNBC analysis of data from the Department of Health and Human Services.

I think we are really starting to see some seasonality – maybe not winter-spring like we see with the flu, but more when people are more indoors versus outdoors,” she said. “In Florida, we were more indoors in the hot time of the summer, and now we have the opportunity to be more outdoors.”

Things are trending in the opposite direction outside of the U.S. South. Cases are up 25% in the Midwest, 18% in the Northeast and 4% in the West over the past two weeks. Hospitalizations, which lag reported infections, are down 9% in the Northeast over that same period but largely flat in the Midwest and West.

The Midwest is now the region with the highest rate of daily new cases per capita, with the recent increase driven by states like Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The University of Colorado’s hospital was beyond capacity last week, according to Dr. Jonathan Samet, the dean of the university’s public health school and lead of its Covid modeling group, due to a combination of the disease and “all the reasons that people go to hospitals.”

Further progress in treatments and vaccinations may help Covid transition into what experts call an “endemic” virus, meaning that it is not totally eradicated but becomes more manageable and part of the respiratory viruses that the country deals with on a yearly basis.

The emergence of new antiviral Covid pills from Merck and Pfizer, for example, could help prevent infections from resulting in hospitalizations or deaths. P


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13 Nov 2021, 7:44 am

COVID-19 hot spots offer sign of what could be ahead for US

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The contagious delta variant is driving up COVID-19 hospitalizations in the Mountain West and fueling disruptive outbreaks in the North, a worrisome sign of what could be ahead this winter in the U.S.

While trends are improving in Florida, Texas and other Southern states that bore the worst of the summer surge, it’s clear that delta isn’t done with the United States. COVID-19 is moving north and west for the winter as people head indoors, close their windows and breathe stagnant air.

“We’re going to see a lot of outbreaks in unvaccinated people that will result in serious illness, and it will be tragic,” said Dr. Donald Milton of the University of Maryland School of Public Health.

In recent days, a Vermont college suspended social gatherings after a spike in cases tied to Halloween parties. Boston officials shut down an elementary school to control an outbreak. Hospitals in New Mexico and Colorado are overwhelmed.

In Michigan, the three-county metro Detroit area is again becoming a hot spot for transmissions, with one hospital system reporting nearly 400 COVID-19 patients. Mask-wearing in Michigan has declined to about 25% of people, according to a combination of surveys tracked by an influential modeling group at the University of Washington.

“Concern over COVID in general is pretty much gone, which is unfortunate,” said Dr. Jennifer Morse, medical director at health departments in 20 central and northern Michigan counties. “I feel strange going into a store masked. I’m a minority. It’s very different. It’s just a really unusual atmosphere right now.”

New Mexico is running out of intensive care beds despite the state’s above-average vaccination rate. Waning immunity may be playing a role. People who were vaccinated early and have not yet received booster shots may be driving up infection numbers, even if they still have some protection from the most dire consequences of the virus.

“Delta and waning immunity — the combination of these two have set us back,” said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington. “This virus is going to stick with us for a long, long time.”

The delta variant dominates infections across the U.S., accounting for more than 99% of the samples analyzed.

No state has achieved a high enough vaccination rate, even when combined with infection-induced immunity, to avoid the type of outbreaks happening now, Mokdad said.



California, Colorado and NM expand virus booster access
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California is among three U.S. states now allowing coronavirus booster shots for all adults even though federal health officials recommend limiting doses to those considered most at risk.

The nation’s most populous state, along with Colorado and New Mexico, instituted their policies to try to head off a feared surge around the end-of-year holidays when more people are gathering inside.

Colorado and New Mexico have among the nation’s highest rates of new infections, while California — lowest in the nation earlier this fall — now joins them in the “high” tier for transmission, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention


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COVID-19 is here to stay; cases on LI seem to be on uptick, medical experts say
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Long Island is on a marked uptick of COVID-19 cases and indicators as the holiday season gets underway, medical experts said Thursday, while warning of the potential for another surge.

They also advised that people should get used to it: COVID-19 does not appear likely to ever go away, and it probably will become a permanent part of our lives, like the flu season.

"The virus is not going anywhere," said Dr. Alan M. Bulbin, director of infectious disease at Catholic Health St. Francis Hospital & Heart Center in Roslyn.

It probably will become more seasonal … probably just like flu season starts coming in October" and people think about getting their flu shot, he told Newsday on Thursday. "I believe every year will be, ‘Think about a COVID booster.’ "

Bulbin and other infectious disease experts said COVID-19 wasn’t going away largely because not enough people were vaccinated, which would allow Long Island and the rest of the country to achieve "herd immunity" in which the virus could be largely crushed.

Bulbin himself is getting worn down by the persistence of the virus, he said, and the continuing cases he sees. Yet many patients hospitalized in serious condition with COVID-19 didn’t think they needed the vaccination shots, he said.

Dr. Bruce Farber, chief of infectious diseases at Long Island Jewish Medical Center and North Shore University Hospital, agreed that the region appears to be heading into another surge, just like during the holiday season last year.

Back then, he and others noted, there was no COVID-19 vaccine. Now that there is one, the situation would be much better if more people got the shots, Farber said.

"It’s really concerning and disappointing, quite frankly," he said. "We’re certainly not at all happy … about seeing rates going up right before these holidays."

The main causes of the latest surge are the large number of people still unvaccinated, the colder weather pushing people indoors, and the failure of many people to wear masks in crowded, indoor places despite the presence of the highly contagious delta variant, Farber said.

Many vaccinated people also have not gotten their booster shots, so breakthrough cases are occurring, he added.

Sean Clouston, an associate professor of public health at Stony Brook University, said people should get used to COVID-19 being a part of their lives potentially for years to come.

Farber said he did not think the latest uptick would become as bad as previous increases. "I don’t think we are going to fill up our hospitals," he said.

But he still warned people to be careful, saying they should not invite anyone who is unvaccinated to their home for Thanksgiving or other holidays.


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15 Nov 2021, 1:19 pm

Covid is surging in Europe. Experts say it’s a warning for the U.S.

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As Europe finds itself at the center of the Covid-19 pandemic once again, experts say it should serve as a warning to the U.S. and other countries about the coronavirus’s unremitting nature.

Case numbers have soared across the continent — more than 50 percent last month — and the worrying trend has continued this month as winter begins to bite.

Dr. Hans Kluge, the director of the World Health Organization’s Europe region, warned Nov. 4 that the region was "back at the epicenter of the pandemic," and his words proved prescient.

The WHO said Friday that nearly 2 million cases were reported across Europe in the previous week — the most the region has had in a single week since the pandemic began.

In recent weeks, Germany reported record daily numbers of new infections, with more than 50,000, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The Netherlands also reported more than 16,000 cases — the country’s most since the pandemic began — prompting the government to begin a partial lockdown Saturday that is set to last at least three weeks.

As case numbers surged toward the end of last month, Belgium reimposed some Covid restrictions, including a requirement to wear masks in public places. People also have to show the country’s Covid-19 pass to enter bars, restaurants and fitness clubs. The passport shows that they have been fully vaccinated, have had recent negative tests or have recently recovered from the disease.

The country nonetheless recorded more than 15,000 daily cases last Monday.

Despite the surge, daily death rates in all three countries have remained relatively stable compared with past spikes, and experts have credited high vaccine uptake for weakening the link between the numbers of cases and hospitalizations and deaths.

However, the same cannot be said for Eastern Europe, where, he said, the situation is "truly disastrous."

Over the last three weeks, Romania, with 591; Bulgaria, with 334; and Latvia, with 64, have reported record daily death numbers, according to Johns Hopkins data. Case numbers have also surged.

Saying the surge was "worrying," Wenseleers said he believed low vaccine uptake and high vaccine hesitancy were largely to blame.

At least 1 in 3 people in countries in eastern Europe do not trust the health care system, compared to an average of 18 percent across the EU, a European Commission poll known as the Eurobarometer found, Reuters reported.

Romania and Bulgaria are among the countries with the lowest rates of vaccine uptake across the continent, according to the EU’s vaccination tracker.

In Austria, which has long been a bridge between east and west, the government ordered a nationwide lockdown for unvaccinated people Sunday to slow the fast spread of the coronavirus.

The move means unvaccinated people older than 12 will be banned from leaving their homes from midnight Sunday, except for basic activities like working, food shopping, going for walks — or getting their shots.


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16 Nov 2021, 11:09 pm

https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/16/health/l ... index.html

Public health leaders hope stories about long Covid will motivate more young people to get vaccinated

It's about time, more people need to know that this is more than just "99.99% survival rate, only obese and old people catch it, etc. etc.".


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17 Nov 2021, 7:28 am

Matrix Glitch wrote:
From what I've been hearing, both the virus and the vaccine are causing organ damage.


Hearing from where? Where is your evidence that the vaccine is harmful? BTW I'm well aware that the anti vaxx crowd has saturated sites like youtube with lies and false vids featuring internet actors.



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17 Nov 2021, 8:04 am

Axeman wrote:
Matrix Glitch wrote:
From what I've been hearing, both the virus and the vaccine are causing organ damage.


Hearing from where? Where is your evidence that the vaccine is harmful? BTW I'm well aware that the anti vaxx crowd has saturated sites like youtube with lies and false vids featuring internet actors.


I pick up on things here and there surfing the internet.
As for the rest, I'm fully vaccinated. I even asked for a booster.