Emergence of a Deadly Coronavirus

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There are two approaches to dealing with this pandemic (and the next one). One approach relies on medicine and medical personal. The other approach relies on physics/engineering and construction. We have developed the tools to keep us fairly safe from this scourge BUT WE DIDN'T FOR THE MOST PART USE THEM.

In general, this pandemic is spread indoors not outdoors. There are some exceptions such as buses and trains and planes. But for the most part, the virus is spread in homes and businesses.

In order to protect people in their homes, one method is to use a type of light to purify the air indoors. The light is called UV-C or Ultra Violet light type C. It kills the virus dead in its tracks. This is the method I have used to protect myself and my family for the past 3 years. It purifies the air that I breath. It is a low maintenance device and only needs to be cleaned about once per month.

There is another approach that can be used and that is called filtration. A proper filtration unit, one called a HEPA filter will purify the very, very, very small particles that transmit the virus.

But during the pandemic, almost all the devices that could be used to protect people were, in my humble opinion, wasted. For example during the beginning of the pandemic, you couldn't purchase an N95 mask if your life depended on it (and it this case, IT DID).

Now that this pandemic is winding down, many of the items that can provide protection from COVID or the next pandemic are beginning to show up in the stores. I came across one of these devices and bought it in order to try it out.

This device combines UV-C light and HEPA filtration in the same device. You might say it was the best of both worlds. This particular device was a Comfort Zone Model Number CZAP602SWT. I came across it by accident when I was in Menards and it set me back around $150. It purifies around 500 sq feet of air (several small rooms but not the entire house. It makes a bit of noise when it first comes online, but once the air purification level is attained, it becomes fairly quiet. I think it is a winner.

WHO declares end to COVID global health emergency

So where are we at in the COVID wars? In a way it is a little hard to tell because we (the U.S.) has decided to stop counting. The best I can determine is the following variants in the U.S. are as follows:
According to the report published 2 May 2023:

XBB.1.5 ----- 68.8 %
XBB.1.16 ----- 11.7 %
XBB.1.9.1 --- 9.0 %
XBB.1.9.2 --- 3.7 %
XBB ---------- 2.4 %
XBB.1.5.1 --- 2.2 %
FD.2 --------- 1.3 %
BQ.1.1 -------- 0.4 %
CH.1.1 ------- 0.3 %
BQ.1 --------- 0.1 %

There are currently more than 12,601 cases reported in the United States per day, with test positivity of 5.1%. When test positivity is above 5%, transmission is considered uncontrolled. There are more than 150 deaths per day, a decrease of 20% over the past two weeks, and hospitalizations have declined by 15% over the last two weeks.

Since many are using home tests that are not reported through public health or are not testing at all, the official case counts underestimate the actual prevalence of COVID-19.

Source: What COVID-19 variants are going around in May 2023

The U.S. is closing the books on COVID. In their official announcement they wrote:

Although COVID-19 no longer poses the societal emergency that it did when it first emerged in late 2019, COVID-19 remains an ongoing public health challenge. By April 26, 2023, more than 104 million U.S. COVID-19 cases, 6 million related hospitalizations, and 1.1 million COVID-19–associated deaths were reported to CDC and summarized on CDC’s COVID Data Tracker.


Is this a good approach? At the moment I think it might be. We implemented a defective policy for handling COVID from the get-go. The threat of COVID transmission was 50 feet, not 6 feet. [The CDC recommends that you keep at least six feet between you and others.} Our health leaders generally recommended wearing substandard mask that DID NOT PROVIDE PROTECTIONS FROM GETTING COVID. We ignored the tools that could keep us safe during the pandemic (such as UV-C air filtration and Hepa filters, N95 masks and maintaining indoor humidity levels between 40 and 60 percent.) Also they failed to understand that as the virus became more contagious, it also became less deadly.

The main problem is that unless you learn from your mistakes, the process will repeat itself.

I just saw this article from 2018.

...oops...

Could the deadly 1918 flu pandemic happen again?

I came across an interesting article.

As of today, the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet out of the woods due to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants (the recent outbreak of CH.1.1, BQ.1, XBB, XBB. 1.9.1, XBB.1.16, XBF, BA.2.75, and XBB.1.5 Omicron subvariants) with increased transmission capacity and immune escape potential. At the time of writing, 633 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections have been reported worldwide, with 6.84 million deaths. The U.S.A, India, France and Germany have reported among the highest number of cases compared to other countries. Notably, the rapid emergence and growth of notorious variants of SARS-CoV-2 in highly vaccinated populations have put the effectiveness of the vaccine in doubt. Hence, researchers worldwide are working at record speed to find the best ways to keep up with the ever-increasing transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2.

Preliminary evidence shows that the virus spreads in smaller particles from exhaled air, known as aerosols. These aerosols are tiny and easily remain aloft in the air, leading to airborne transmission and posing a risk of exposure. Due to its highly contagious nature, preventive measures such as increased ventilation rate, improved natural ventilation, avoiding staying in another person's direct air flow and minimizing the number of people sharing the same environment should be adopted to reduce the risk of infection. In 2020, 239 scientists from different disciplines, such as environmental science, respiratory science, and architecture, appealed to the medical community and relevant authorities (local or international) to acknowledge the potential for airborne spread of SARS-CoV-2, citing increasing evidence that patients were infected by viruses in microscopic respiratory droplets (microdroplets) at short to medium distances (up to several meters or room-scale).

The WHO defines droplets with particle diameters of ≥ 5–10 μm and aerosols as < 5 μm. Airborne transmission refers to the presence of viruses in aerosols < 5 μm that are present in the environment (these aerosols can remain suspended in the air for a prolonged period and travel over 1 m). These tiny aerosols could originate from the evaporation of larger droplets or attach/condense on dust particles. Nevertheless, both forms of transmissions can be generated as a continuum of particle sizes during respiratory activities and do not demonstrate distinct behavior. Such small droplets travel freely in the air, carrying viral content up to tens of meters from the source. This spreading route often goes unnoticed as asymptomatic individuals emit aerosols <10 μm in size and produce few droplets. Therefore, understanding the exact transport mechanism is key for preventing outbreaks and designing new social behaviors to minimize the transmission.

Source: An overview of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and engineering strategies to mitigate risk

This is an interesting article. COVID was spread more than 5 or 6 feet, rather more like 50 feet from the source. It was spread by microscopic particles. Our approach was wrong from the get-go.

So what is the bottom line. Is COVID ended? I do not know. We have stopped taking count. The latest variants have produced a dramatic change. They are spread in high humidity indoor environments (if I am not mistaken). They are summertime spreaders.