In one of the two ways COVID will be over

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Karamazov
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07 Apr 2020, 1:52 am

CockneyRebel wrote:
I'd take the Covid-19 jab in a heartbeat.


Why wait a full heartbeat? :P

Seriously vaccination cannot come too soon, I’ll definitely be hopping up and down with impatience as soon as one has been formulated and properly test-trialed.



EzraS
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07 Apr 2020, 2:36 am

The probability with it being highly contagious and that it spread across the globe like wildfire, is that most everybody already contracted it by the time lockdowns were put on place to contain it. Meaning that only 1% of the population has any noticeable symptoms and only 15% of that 1% are affected severely by it.



Syd
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07 Apr 2020, 2:51 am

Karamazov wrote:
CockneyRebel wrote:
I'd take the Covid-19 jab in a heartbeat.


Why wait a full heartbeat? :P

Seriously vaccination cannot come too soon, I’ll definitely be hopping up and down with impatience as soon as one has been formulated and properly test-trialed.


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QFT
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07 Apr 2020, 3:54 pm

EzraS wrote:
The probability with it being highly contagious and that it spread across the globe like wildfire, is that most everybody already contracted it by the time lockdowns were put on place to contain it. Meaning that only 1% of the population has any noticeable symptoms and only 15% of that 1% are affected severely by it.


Well, out of the limited number of cases that were tested, the majority was tested negatively. So what you just said is unlikely.



lvpin
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07 Apr 2020, 6:08 pm

QFT wrote:
EzraS wrote:
The probability with it being highly contagious and that it spread across the globe like wildfire, is that most everybody already contracted it by the time lockdowns were put on place to contain it. Meaning that only 1% of the population has any noticeable symptoms and only 15% of that 1% are affected severely by it.


Well, out of the limited number of cases that were tested, the majority was tested negatively. So what you just said is unlikely.


Ok but it will be about a year and a half minimum for a vaccine. Idk how that affects things because it is a really long time.



QFT
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07 Apr 2020, 6:14 pm

lvpin wrote:
QFT wrote:
EzraS wrote:
The probability with it being highly contagious and that it spread across the globe like wildfire, is that most everybody already contracted it by the time lockdowns were put on place to contain it. Meaning that only 1% of the population has any noticeable symptoms and only 15% of that 1% are affected severely by it.


Well, out of the limited number of cases that were tested, the majority was tested negatively. So what you just said is unlikely.


Ok but it will be about a year and a half minimum for a vaccine. Idk how that affects things because it is a really long time.


I think by that time everyone who is to be sick will have already been sick, so vaccine -- despite being available -- won't be necessary.



IsabellaLinton
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07 Apr 2020, 6:15 pm

QFT wrote:
lvpin wrote:
QFT wrote:
EzraS wrote:
The probability with it being highly contagious and that it spread across the globe like wildfire, is that most everybody already contracted it by the time lockdowns were put on place to contain it. Meaning that only 1% of the population has any noticeable symptoms and only 15% of that 1% are affected severely by it.


Well, out of the limited number of cases that were tested, the majority was tested negatively. So what you just said is unlikely.


Ok but it will be about a year and a half minimum for a vaccine. Idk how that affects things because it is a really long time.


I think by that time everyone who is to be sick will have already been sick, so vaccine -- despite being available -- won't be necessary.


The ironic thing is that most people who are immunocompromised can't have flu vaccines. They're the people who need it but they can't have them.


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QFT
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07 Apr 2020, 6:28 pm

IsabellaLinton wrote:
QFT wrote:
lvpin wrote:
QFT wrote:
EzraS wrote:
The probability with it being highly contagious and that it spread across the globe like wildfire, is that most everybody already contracted it by the time lockdowns were put on place to contain it. Meaning that only 1% of the population has any noticeable symptoms and only 15% of that 1% are affected severely by it.


Well, out of the limited number of cases that were tested, the majority was tested negatively. So what you just said is unlikely.


Ok but it will be about a year and a half minimum for a vaccine. Idk how that affects things because it is a really long time.


I think by that time everyone who is to be sick will have already been sick, so vaccine -- despite being available -- won't be necessary.


The ironic thing is that most people who are immunocompromised can't have flu vaccines. They're the people who need it but they can't have them.


I guess the people who aren't immunocompromised will be taking it in order not to infect the people that are. Basically, without the vaccine, they would be assymptomatic carriers who themselves wouldn't be ill but will get others ill. So they will be taking vaccine in order to help others rather than themselves. This being the case, they might not even want to take it -- but the government might force them to.



IsabellaLinton
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07 Apr 2020, 6:29 pm

QFT wrote:
IsabellaLinton wrote:
QFT wrote:
lvpin wrote:
QFT wrote:
EzraS wrote:
The probability with it being highly contagious and that it spread across the globe like wildfire, is that most everybody already contracted it by the time lockdowns were put on place to contain it. Meaning that only 1% of the population has any noticeable symptoms and only 15% of that 1% are affected severely by it.


Well, out of the limited number of cases that were tested, the majority was tested negatively. So what you just said is unlikely.


Ok but it will be about a year and a half minimum for a vaccine. Idk how that affects things because it is a really long time.


I think by that time everyone who is to be sick will have already been sick, so vaccine -- despite being available -- won't be necessary.


The ironic thing is that most people who are immunocompromised can't have flu vaccines. They're the people who need it but they can't have them.


I guess the people who aren't immunocompromised will be taking it in order not to infect the people that are. Basically, without the vaccine, they would be assymptomatic carriers who themselves wouldn't be ill but will get others ill. So they will be taking vaccine in order to help others rather than themselves. This being the case, they might not even want to take it -- but the government might force them to.


I know. It's the same paradox with regular flu vaccine compliance. I just think it's ironic and sad. :(


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skibum
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07 Apr 2020, 9:50 pm

QFT wrote:

For old people, yes; for young people, no.

In the US, for some odd reason, one of the highest dying groups is young adults aged 24-54.


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07 Apr 2020, 11:07 pm

I've heard the theory in the UK that we're painting ourselves into a corner by doing social isolation to hold back the virus, and that as soon as we venture out the curve will go back up, and that the rate of spending on subsidies can't go on like this indefinitely. I hope it won't turn out that awful. I'm glad I'm retired so the gov can't force me back out to work by stopping the layoff compensation arrangements. So I guess if and when society returns to normal, it'll be mostly younger people going out there first, and I'd expect them mostly have good immune systems that could fight it off. Hopefully they'll make lots of test kits - if everybody could be tested accurately then we'd know who could safely mix with who. A vaccine or cure is probably a long way off, but it'll happen. Epidemics rise and fall, and there never was one yet that remained a significant threat for decades, not in the developed world at least.

But I don't know what'll happen next. Probably best to watch what happens to these countries that are starting to end the quarantine. Meanwhile, I'll just try to keep properly nourished, healthy and fit. Shouldn't be too hard as long as food, water and power don't fail.



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08 Apr 2020, 7:19 am

I live in a state, that the models predict a very high death rate per 100k people, exceeding New York. The numbers are terrifying and difficult to understand why New Jersey is so vulnerable.

I have taken precautions, put an emergency letter by my front door, arranged my documents and trying to keep from overreacting. I hope everyone here will be safe and act responsibly by making sure that others are not put at risk by our behavior.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... DeUwljJSf8


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14 Apr 2020, 2:16 pm

Fnord wrote:
revlar wrote:
With these possibility 2 of everyone being in quarantine and waiting this out, isn't it possible for one person infected with Covid to enter China and spread it all over again? ...
That's why we REALLY need a CoViD-19 vaccine.


It is possible that the immunity may be limited. The coronaviruses that can cause colds reportedly confer immunity from 1 to 3 years. This coronavirus might easily do the same.

There is some thought that the milder cases may confer far less immunity than the more serious cases.

We've got to learn to live with the virus by taking reasonable steps to lower its spread. I don't know if that's even possible in places like New York City.



QFT
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14 Apr 2020, 11:36 pm

kokopelli wrote:
The coronaviruses that can cause colds reportedly confer immunity from 1 to 3 years.


If that was the case, how do you explain the situation when someone gets frequent colds?



kokopelli
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15 Apr 2020, 12:49 am

QFT wrote:
kokopelli wrote:
The coronaviruses that can cause colds reportedly confer immunity from 1 to 3 years.


If that was the case, how do you explain the situation when someone gets frequent colds?


I think that there are 4 coronaviruses that can give you a cold. I don't know that immunity to one of them will affect the others. There are also rhinoviruses as well. And other viruses -- some of which are completely unknown.



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05 Jun 2020, 6:06 pm

QFT wrote:
kokopelli wrote:
The coronaviruses that can cause colds reportedly confer immunity from 1 to 3 years.


If that was the case, how do you explain the situation when someone gets frequent colds?


There's a wide variety of viruses that cause colds, among them rhinoviruses, coronaviruses and influenza viruses. Influenza and the current SARS-CoV-2 can cause cold-like symptoms if they only infect the upper respiratory tract, rhinoviruses are limited to the upper tract because they reproduce better at a lower temperature than the human body maintains. If one is suffering a mild case of CoVID-19 or of influenza that is limited to the URT they will likely describe it as a cold.

Further, since colds tend to be self-diagnosed it's possible that other issues maybe responsible; if one keeps getting them over and over again it might be something else like ongoing exposure to an allergen or reduced immune function.


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