Will trump lose the election because of Coronavirus?

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goldfish21
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26 Apr 2020, 12:23 pm

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https://www.mic.com/p/will-trump-lose-t ... s-22832126

I sure hope so! :D

But I’m North if the border and don’t get to cast a ballot. :( I did, however, vote for Hillary 3-5 Million times. :lol: Might have to pull off the good ol’ fashioned illegal immigrant voting scheme again this November..

Anyways, what’s the Actual sentiment on this in your neck of the American woods? Think trump’s handling of C-19 has cost him votes in your area or nah nothing’s really changed about who people are planning on voting for?


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MaxE
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26 Apr 2020, 12:48 pm

There are reasons the pandemic could guarantee his re-election and other reasons why it should make his election impossible. The one way Trump can lose is if those who have always supported him were to become disenchanted. I have yet to see any evidence of this. I have yet to hear of anybody announcing that Trump had lost their support as a consequence of the epidemic. The people talking about how poorly he has led the Pandemic response are people who would have voted against him anyway. It also doesn't help that his Democratic challenger has zero charisma.

In fact, I don't think anybody can predict at this point. Probably the best-case scenario for him to lose is if the economy is in the crapper by that time, the one circumstance that has led to previous incumbent Presidents not being re-elected e.g. Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush. I'll make no predictions, but it seems possible the economy could actually recover rather quickly if businesses are able to re-open quickly (although I wouldn't bet on that). Another thing we can't predict is if in-person voting will be allowed at that time. I happen to believe that Mail-In Voting, which requires much more executive function the usual kind, favors Trump because the groups most likely to make the effort to vote tend to be the same groups that typically vote Republican, and keep in mind that even Republicans who do not support Trump with a great deal of enthusiasm are still going to vote for him and Republican members of Congress, if by not doing they run the risk of a Democratic take-over of the Government.


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Tim_Tex
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26 Apr 2020, 1:00 pm

The economy was the one thing he had going for him, and with the U.S. being in at least a big recession, if not depression, we're probably talking about a Biden presidency in '21.


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Amity
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26 Apr 2020, 1:05 pm

Hi Goldfish
Considering the devisive nature of American politics and that this thread is pure speculation, did you mean to post this thread in PPR where it would be more aligned with the robust debate that happens there?


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Tim_Tex
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26 Apr 2020, 1:11 pm

Amity wrote:
Hi Goldfish
Considering the devisive nature of American politics and that this thread is pure speculation, did you mean to post this thread in PPR where it would be more aligned with the robust debate that happens there?


Most threads in N&CE are of a political nature, so there will be replies similar to those in a PPR thread.


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MaxE
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26 Apr 2020, 1:14 pm

Tim_Tex wrote:
The economy was the one thing he had going for him, and with the U.S. being in at least a big recession, if not depression, we're probably talking about a Biden presidency in '21.

I seldom flat-out tell anybody they're wrong, but in this case to say the economy was the one thing Trump had going for him is naïve. Trump's strength is in that White people (a plurality in the US and the group most likely to show up on Election Day) view him as their protector against any political notion you might associate with Barack Obama.


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Amity
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26 Apr 2020, 1:18 pm

:shrug:
Fair enough, seems like a speculative/opinion topic that would bait emotional responses to me.


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goldfish21
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26 Apr 2020, 1:20 pm

Amity wrote:
Hi Goldfish
Considering the devisive nature of American politics and that this thread is pure speculation, did you mean to post this thread in PPR where it would be more aligned with the robust debate that happens there?


No. Because it is a news article about current events, not my personal musings about philosophy.


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goldfish21
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26 Apr 2020, 1:24 pm

@MaxE: Interesting that you think republicans will vote by mail more. I’ve read that trump is trying to block mail in voting because he’s concerned that it will enable more people to vote that otherwise might not be able to make it to a polling station (or might avoid one due to covid) & that he knows the more people who actually vote the worse his chances.. hence the voter suppression efforts of attacking mail in voting as corrupt and attacking the post office lately as money losing etc. Seems to me he’s setting up a fight with USPS so he can try to shut it down in time for the election in hopes that more trump supporters show up in person at the polls.


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goldfish21
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26 Apr 2020, 1:25 pm

MaxE wrote:
Tim_Tex wrote:
The economy was the one thing he had going for him, and with the U.S. being in at least a big recession, if not depression, we're probably talking about a Biden presidency in '21.

I seldom flat-out tell anybody they're wrong, but in this case to say the economy was the one thing Trump had going for him is naïve. Trump's strength is in that White people (a plurality in the US and the group most likely to show up on Election Day) view him as their protector against any political notion you might associate with Barack Obama.


White People view him as their protector against liberal government policies? :?

Or you mean against non whites having a say in the way America is run? :?


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26 Apr 2020, 1:34 pm

goldfish21 wrote:
MaxE wrote:
Tim_Tex wrote:
The economy was the one thing he had going for him, and with the U.S. being in at least a big recession, if not depression, we're probably talking about a Biden presidency in '21.

I seldom flat-out tell anybody they're wrong, but in this case to say the economy was the one thing Trump had going for him is naïve. Trump's strength is in that White people (a plurality in the US and the group most likely to show up on Election Day) view him as their protector against any political notion you might associate with Barack Obama.


White People view him as their protector against liberal government policies? :?

Or you mean against non whites having a say in the way America is run? :?

Yes.


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goldfish21
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26 Apr 2020, 1:44 pm

MaxE wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
MaxE wrote:
Tim_Tex wrote:
The economy was the one thing he had going for him, and with the U.S. being in at least a big recession, if not depression, we're probably talking about a Biden presidency in '21.

I seldom flat-out tell anybody they're wrong, but in this case to say the economy was the one thing Trump had going for him is naïve. Trump's strength is in that White people (a plurality in the US and the group most likely to show up on Election Day) view him as their protector against any political notion you might associate with Barack Obama.


White People view him as their protector against liberal government policies? :?

Or you mean against non whites having a say in the way America is run? :?

Yes.


Seems strange to me, as a mostly white white presenting person, that white people in the USA would collectively think they needed protection from either.

Weeeeeeeeeeird.


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vermontsavant
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26 Apr 2020, 2:03 pm

It's going to ride on the economy and how incompetent Biden comes across as.It's really more Biden's to loose than is it Trump's to win.


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26 Apr 2020, 2:13 pm

Aren't incumbents typically massively favoured when there are ongoing crises (wars, pandemics etc.)?

That combined with his democratic opponent being a complete non-entity, I'm expecting this circus to continue for 4 more years.


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MaxE
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26 Apr 2020, 2:19 pm

goldfish21 wrote:
MaxE wrote:
goldfish21 wrote:
MaxE wrote:
Tim_Tex wrote:
The economy was the one thing he had going for him, and with the U.S. being in at least a big recession, if not depression, we're probably talking about a Biden presidency in '21.

I seldom flat-out tell anybody they're wrong, but in this case to say the economy was the one thing Trump had going for him is naïve. Trump's strength is in that White people (a plurality in the US and the group most likely to show up on Election Day) view him as their protector against any political notion you might associate with Barack Obama.


White People view him as their protector against liberal government policies? :?

Or you mean against non whites having a say in the way America is run? :?

Yes.


Seems strange to me, as a mostly white white presenting person, that white people in the USA would collectively think they needed protection from either.

Weeeeeeeeeeird.

A complete answer to this would probably qualify as a Doctoral Dissertation.


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MaxE
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26 Apr 2020, 2:24 pm

goldfish21 wrote:
@MaxE: Interesting that you think republicans will vote by mail more. I’ve read that trump is trying to block mail in voting because he’s concerned that it will enable more people to vote that otherwise might not be able to make it to a polling station (or might avoid one due to covid) & that he knows the more people who actually vote the worse his chances.. hence the voter suppression efforts of attacking mail in voting as corrupt and attacking the post office lately as money losing etc. Seems to me he’s setting up a fight with USPS so he can try to shut it down in time for the election in hopes that more trump supporters show up in person at the polls.

I can speak from experience as we recently had a special election (for one Congressional seat) and the process requires that you notice the ballot having arrived in the mail (people in some demographics seldom check their mail and many probably just recycle it), open it, mark the ballot (in black ink please!) put it in the enclosed envelope, seal the envelope, and sign and date the envelope (along with writing your name in block letters underneath).

Without going into a lot of detail, the likelihood of a voter's compliance with that daunting procedure is directly proportional to their likelihood to vote for Trump.


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