The Election That Could Break America

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How can it be that Congress slips into unbreakable deadlock? The law is a labyrinth in these parts, too intricate to map in a magazine article, but I can sketch one path.

Suppose Pennsylvania alone sends rival slates of electors, and their 20 votes will decide the presidency.

One reading of the Electoral Count Act says that Congress must recognize the electors certified by the governor, who is a Democrat, unless the House and Senate agree otherwise. The House will not agree otherwise, and so Biden wins Pennsylvania and the White House. But Pence pounds his gavel and rules against this reading of the law, instead favoring another, which holds that Congress must discard both contested slates of electors. The garbled statute can plausibly be read either way.

With Pennsylvania’s electors disqualified, 518 electoral votes remain. If Biden holds a narrow lead among them, he again claims the presidency, because he has “the greatest number of votes,” as the Twelfth Amendment prescribes. But Republicans point out that the same amendment requires “a majority of the whole number of electors.” The whole number of electors, Pence rules, is 538, and Biden is short of the required 270.

On this argument, no one has attained the presidency, and the decision is thrown to the House, with one vote per state. If the current partisan balance holds, 26 out of 50 votes will be for Trump.

Before Pence can move on from Pennsylvania to Rhode Island, which is next on the alphabetical list as Congress counts the vote, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi expels all senators from the floor of her chamber. Now Pence is prevented from completing the count “in the presence of” the House, as the Constitution requires. Pelosi announces plans to stall indefinitely. If the count is still incomplete on Inauguration Day, the speaker herself will become acting president.

Pelosi prepares to be sworn in on January 20 unless Pence reverses his ruling and accepts that Biden won. Pence does not budge. He reconvenes the Senate in another venue, with House Republicans squeezing in, and purports to complete the count, making Trump the president-elect. Three people now have supportable claims to the Oval Office.

There are other paths in the labyrinth. Many lead to dead ends.

This is the next constitutional crisis, graver than the one three weeks before, because the law and the Constitution provide for no other authority to consult. The Supreme Court may yet intervene, but it may also shy away from another traumatizing encounter with a fundamentally political question.

Sixty-four days have passed since the election. Stalemate reigns. Two weeks remain until Inauguration Day.

Foley, who foresaw this impasse, knows of no solution. He cannot tell you how we avoid it under current law, or how it ends. It is not so much, at this point, a question of law. It is a question of power. Trump has possession of the White House. How far will he push boundaries to keep it, and who will push back? It is the same question the president has posed since the day he took office.

President Donald Trump refused Wednesday to commit to a peaceful transition of power if he loses the 2020 election to Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

“Well, we’ll have to see what happens. You know that. I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots. And the ballots are a disaster,” Trump said at a news conference at the White House.

Minutes later, the president abruptly left the briefing room, telling the press, “I have to leave to take an emergency phone call.”

Isn't every election "The Election That Could Break America" according to both sides? When was the the last time that there was just a casual good-time election? Was there ever such a thing?

Well, vote margins have generally narrowed over time (and it was -2.09 percent in 2016, as Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote).

But in the 20th century presidents like FDR (1936) Lyndon B. Johnson (1964) and Nixon (1972) actually got more than 60 pct. of the vote, making these elections much more decisive (and, I assume, more casual).

On the other hand, the 1964 election *did* perhaps break America, as it launched the Southern Strategy within the Republican Party...

As much as Trump and Biden act like senile old men, I down there will be that many fireworks.

Congressional Republicans say that if President Donald Trump loses the election there will be a peaceful transition. But they’re not explaining how, even as the president threatens to upend the constitutional order.

While Republicans gently pushed back Thursday against Trump’s refusal this week to commit to a peaceful transition of power, most declined to say what they would do if the president refuses to leave office, dismissing it as a hypothetical
situation.

Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) added that his party would not stand idly by if Trump tried to stay in office after losing: "Republicans believe in the rule of law and we believe in the Constitution. And that's what dictates our election process."

Hill Republicans argued Thursday morning that this year’s election would be no different than previous ones and reiterated that the Constitution guarantees that whoever loses must cede the presidency. But no one condemned Trump directly by name, and they declined to weigh in on whether it was appropriate for the president to suggest he won’t leave office.

"The winner of the November 3rd election will be inaugurated on January 20th," said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. "There will be an orderly transition just as there has been every four years since 1792."

Isn't every election "The Election That Could Break America" according to both sides? When was the the last time that there was just a casual good-time election? Was there ever such a thing?

The Reagan landslides in the 80's too,I don't know what the pop vote was but Mondale and Carter only got one state.

Mondale got his home Minnesota but Carter couldn't even get Georgia, I think Carter MA.

If you're talking about the popular vote Reagan won, but not by landslides. There were only two landslides in my lifetime: LBJ against Goldwater 64, and Nixon against McGovern 72(in both the winner won twice as many votes as the loser- Goldwater losing slightly worse).

The opposite has also happened in my lifetime as a voter: Nixon vs Humphrey 68 was razor thin in closeness, and Bush/Gore 2000 was razor thin. The later was taken to the supreme court because of the Florida dangling chads etc. But neither guy acted like Trump. Gore (being semi incumbent because he was the previous POTUS's VEEP) didnt threaten to stay in office by force, and W. didnt threaten to launch a military junta to take over. But Trump is hinting that he wont leave the Oval Office regardless of the election outcome.