Who do you think will win the 2020 election?

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auntblabby
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12 Oct 2020, 9:53 pm

this is so stressful.



Brictoria
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12 Oct 2020, 11:54 pm

Tim_Tex wrote:
Biscuitman wrote:
My feeling from what I have seen so far from both campaigns and the response to them is Biden is the more popular candidate and will get the most votes. EC could swing the election result the other way though.


The key states are Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Biden has a lead in all of those states.

Florida and Iowa are tossups, and Arizona, Georgia and even Texas are within reach for the Dems.


I'd be curious to know which states each of the parties are focussing their campaign's attention towards, and what the 2016 results in them were, as that would provide an idea of what the parties' internal polling shows...

Are both parties campaiging in the same states, or is one (or both) avoiding some of the "key" states, either becuase they may feel confident about a good result (the other party would likely be campaigning there to try and bring it into play), or as they feel it is a lost cause?

It would also be interesting to know if either party is campaiging in seats that were considered less likely to be in question, based on 2016 (or even 2018), either as an indication the party doesn't feel confident there now (and needs extra support), or they feel they have a chance to unseat their opponent.


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13 Oct 2020, 2:00 am

It no longer matters who wins. The USA is f!cked, regardless of the winner.



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13 Oct 2020, 7:25 am

auntblabby wrote:
CarlM wrote:
I'm think Biden will win, but I am concerned it might be close after seeing all the support being shown for Trump. I predicted Trump in 2016 based on what the support I saw displayed locally. The Trump support seems more mainstream this time, while in 2016 in seemed more the "deplorables" to use Hillary's term. Could someone tell me what the 2020 Trump supporters are thinking? What about the chaos in DC appeals to them?

the only thing they care about was expressed succinctly by LBJ when he said "If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.” that is the only thing they care about, that is the whole thing. the so-called economic pretensions are just noise for the deception of pollsters. in light of obama, this was an entirely predictable reaction, and the greater hue and cry from the non-magas only encourages them.


I don't think there is a link between racism and political affiliations.



The_Walrus
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13 Oct 2020, 7:30 am

Brictoria wrote:
Tim_Tex wrote:
Biscuitman wrote:
My feeling from what I have seen so far from both campaigns and the response to them is Biden is the more popular candidate and will get the most votes. EC could swing the election result the other way though.


The key states are Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Biden has a lead in all of those states.

Florida and Iowa are tossups, and Arizona, Georgia and even Texas are within reach for the Dems.


I'd be curious to know which states each of the parties are focussing their campaign's attention towards, and what the 2016 results in them were, as that would provide an idea of what the parties' internal polling shows...

Are both parties campaiging in the same states, or is one (or both) avoiding some of the "key" states, either becuase they may feel confident about a good result (the other party would likely be campaigning there to try and bring it into play), or as they feel it is a lost cause?

It would also be interesting to know if either party is campaiging in seats that were considered less likely to be in question, based on 2016 (or even 2018), either as an indication the party doesn't feel confident there now (and needs extra support), or they feel they have a chance to unseat their opponent.

Both campaigns are focusing on Florida and Pennsylvania. These are the two most important states - large, roughly in the middle of the country opinion wise, and likely to be won by the overall winner - so it makes sense.

Away from those two states, I would argue Biden’s spending is slightly more sensible. Both campaigns have emphasised states who will be able to give a definitive result on election night. These include North Carolina, Ohio, Arizona, and Georgia. Currently it would seem that Biden is likely to win three of those four states, but they are all certainly competitive.

The Trump campaign has deprioritised Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nevada. These are the third, fourth, fifth, and eighth most likely states to decide the election. All four are looking very comfortable for Biden. The Trump campaign seems to have given up on Minnesota in particular (which voted for Clinton, but only narrowly), while it isn’t spending as much as it should on Michigan and Wisconsin. The Biden campaign on the other hand still has Michigan as its third priority, which is about right, and is outspending Trump in Minnesota. Neither party is paying enough attention to Wisconsin. Nevada is a smaller state by population so a like-for-like might not be so helpful, but I’d argue it is bring overlooked by many.

Sources:

Facebook spending: https://twitter.com/MrArenge/status/131 ... 57/photo/2 (this is what I have leaned on the most)
Advertising generally: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/09/joe-bid ... lenge.html

(I’ve seen better reports on TV advertising but couldn’t find them again - nonetheless, they showed a similar pattern)



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19 Oct 2020, 11:48 am

Well, the polling has largely continued to drift towards Biden. Georgia in particular has seen some strong polling not just for Biden, but also Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. (I have been saying for weeks that a Warnock victory is by far the biggest threat to ACB being confirmed, but that is a topic for elsewhere)

On advertising, it seems the Trump campaign is scaling back further in Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin:
https://mobile.twitter.com/mediumbuying ... 22785?s=21

But buying in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Iowa:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MediumBuying ... 6361090059

(There is a discrepancy between the tweets - the one saying they’re not spending in Wisconsin is later)

Those four states are competitive in the Presidential election (Trump needs to win at least three of them). But what separates them from Wisconsin, Ohio and Minnesota is that they have somewhat competitive senate races this year. Possibly a coincidence.

Strategically it is an odd play for Trump. It is very difficult for him to win without Ohio, where he is polling OK but very fragile. Wisconsin is one of the three states most likely to decide the election and Trump is trailing badly. Minnesota looks like it might be out of reach, but would help compensate for the loss of Wisconsin and/or Michigan.



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19 Oct 2020, 12:27 pm

Trump cannot win the election if he loses Florida. He won Florida by less than 1% in 2016.



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19 Oct 2020, 1:30 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
Trump cannot win the election if he loses Florida. He won Florida by less than 1% in 2016.

Latest Hill/Harris poll has him tied with Biden in Florida.

"The Hill/Harris poll also showed Biden leading by nine points in Michigan, another state Trump narrowly won in 2016. Additionally, the poll showed Biden and Trump tied at 48 percent in Florida"
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5 ... vania-poll


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19 Oct 2020, 1:35 pm

We shall see when the votes actually start getting counted.....

Polls don't mean a whole lot, to be honest.



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19 Oct 2020, 1:46 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
We shall see when the votes actually start getting counted.....

Polls don't mean a whole lot, to be honest.


I Am not liking the stress being built up around this election ...... by mainstream media . Imho


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19 Oct 2020, 2:17 pm

Yep....lots of mudslinging is occurring from both major parties.

The political dialogue has reached a low ebb.



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19 Oct 2020, 4:29 pm

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ :( ~~~~~~~~~~~~~
:roll:


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19 Oct 2020, 5:26 pm

Frankly, I don’t give a damn. Neither candidate is worth 2 sacks of dogsh!t.

Over the past 45 years, the only politico that was anywhere near honest was Jimmy Carter, and he did his best work AFTER he was out of office.

I did vote by mail, but after the 2016 election, I vowed that I wouldNEVER vote for a Democrat or a Republican for as long as I live. I voted Green, although I’ll probably regret doing so, since I have big issues with their platform on LGBTQ, and their stance on abortion, let alone being accused of throwing away my vote.

Personally, I’d rather see a nanny state, since we, the people, are no longer capable of making a good and righteous decisions, as well as being capable of taking care of themselves, let alone others.



auntblabby
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19 Oct 2020, 8:49 pm

people lie to pollsters in a most sociopathic fashion. therefore, i can't have faith in any poll that indicates a 10 point spread in favor of biden. i remember how we were all suckered in 2016.