Who do you think will win the 2020 election?

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Didn’t see this earlier.

I think, if it helps:

- Bill Clinton and Tony Blair were very close.

- Barack Obama was in many ways a slight modernisation of Clinton.

- Jeremy Corbyn is more openly radical than Bernie Sanders on issues like mass nationalisation and Hamas, but in a lot of ways they are aligned.

- 2020 Joe Biden can probably be thought of as similar to Keir Starmer - not really trusted by the activist left, and not a true radical, but noticeably more left wing than Obama or Ed Miliband.

The Starmer comparison is actually very good, the more I think about it. They’re both figures who are perceived as centre-left despite pushing policies which four years ago would have been seen as far-left. As always, Britain is more open to nationalisation and particularly obsessed with healthcare, but Biden is to the left of Starmer (and indeed Corbyn) on unions.

Last year, Biden assured his corporate donors that "Nothing will fundamentally change." Now that you can believe. He's a miserable piece of s**t whom I wouldn't vote for if you put a shotgun to my head.

I predict he will probably win, though. But it won't be by a landslide. It's going to be a close race.

Sebastian Co? Kevin Keegan?

Big Joey Biden

"Trump has still got to go to Middlesbrough and get something...."

Whomever wins, we all lose.

By the vice presidential debate last night , it just doesn’t look that good for Biden party . SeriousLy Trump and Pence surely know how to play the crowd.

Well, at least Pence attracted that fly.

I think Trump will win because the U.S. seems to have a history, of electing the same person twice all the time. So therefore it seems more likely?

To me there's a 60% chance it'll be Trump and a 40% chance it'll be Biden.

this whole thing makes me physically ill.

I'm think Biden will win, but I am concerned it might be close after seeing all the support being shown for Trump. I predicted Trump in 2016 based on what the support I saw displayed locally. The Trump support seems more mainstream this time, while in 2016 in seemed more the "deplorables" to use Hillary's term. Could someone tell me what the 2020 Trump supporters are thinking? What about the chaos in DC appeals to them?

the only thing they care about was expressed succinctly by LBJ when he said "If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.” that is the only thing they care about, that is the whole thing. the so-called economic pretensions are just noise for the deception of pollsters. in light of obama, this was an entirely predictable reaction, and the greater hue and cry from the non-magas only encourages them.

From the outside, looking in, I'd suggest it is quite likely to be a Trump win.

The reasoning for this would be:
* There appears more enthusiasm for him as a candidate than for Mr Biden, based on coverage of rallies, etc.
* He has the "encumbant" position, which I understand has historically been effective.
* His opponent hasn't shown much enthusiasm\inclination to interact with the public in order to gain support, holding minimal "rallies" (in person or virtual) and\or press conferences.
* Supporters of his opponent have shown little-to-no interest in trying to hold meaningful discourse with his supporters in order to understand them and why they support him, instead demonising them, leading to a low chance of his supporters having any motivation\desire to see his opponent as being worthy of consideration.

Of course, the electoral college is the "great unknown" in this, but the lack of "enthusiasm" on display by the supporters of Mr Biden, coupled with the vitriol from Mr Trump's detractors aimed at his supporters over an extended period certainly make it appear the more likely outcome.

My feeling from what I have seen so far from both campaigns and the response to them is Biden is the more popular candidate and will get the most votes. EC could swing the election result the other way though.

The key states are Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Biden has a lead in all of those states.

Florida and Iowa are tossups, and Arizona, Georgia and even Texas are within reach for the Dems.