Who do you think will win the 2020 election?

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The_Walrus
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08 Oct 2020, 12:46 pm

Nades wrote:
The_Walrus wrote:
Nades wrote:
seaweed wrote:
The_Walrus wrote:
How many moderate Republicans back:

- a public healthcare option
- two years of free college
- ending cash bail
- a $15 federal minimum wage
- paid family leave
- increased corporation tax
- repealing “Right to Work” laws
- banning private prisons and schools

Some of those are good ideas, some of them are bad ideas - all of them are leftist ideas, and all of them are changes which alter the status quo. No Republican would support those ideas, and even moderate Democrats would object to most of them. Biden would be the most leftist President in US history.

Biden brands himself as a moderate, and is able to do so because he ran against multiple communists, but really he’s a social democrat. He’s fooled both leftists and moderates.

Compared to Hillary Clinton he’s a disappointing candidate for liberals, but should be a strong one for leftists


all these things are barely left of right. he's not a social democrat at all.


Free health care, significant increase in minimum wage, free two years of college, banning of private prisons, increased corp tax, paid family leave. That all sounds like very substantial socioeconomic changes and they're only barely left wing? It's actually worrying if that's the case. Just how much further left can it go?

I have no issues with any of those points, Im just perplexed at how free health care for example is just "barely" left wing.

A public option is not “free healthcare”, which presumably is Seaweed’s objection.

There is clear daylight between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders and I don’t see any value in pretending otherwise. Sanders is an extremist, Biden is a pragmatist. But likewise, there is clear daylight between Biden and Obama or the Clintons, with Biden being noticeably more left wing. I think he can get away without alienating moderate voters due to a combination of the total unacceptability of Trump, people’s political illiteracy, and most obviously, the fact that he’s a white man.

While translating politicians from one context to another is always difficult, all of those policies except healthcare (where the UK has its own peculiar hang-ups) would put Biden on the left of the UK Labour Party.


The labour party to me is also to far left for my liking. Under Corbyn it was extreme and drove voters away in areas he should have had a certain win. There is always a happy middle ground. I think a comparison to them certainly helps people in the UK make comparisons to use politics.

Didn’t see this earlier.

I think, if it helps:

- Bill Clinton and Tony Blair were very close.

- Barack Obama was in many ways a slight modernisation of Clinton.

- Jeremy Corbyn is more openly radical than Bernie Sanders on issues like mass nationalisation and Hamas, but in a lot of ways they are aligned.

- 2020 Joe Biden can probably be thought of as similar to Keir Starmer - not really trusted by the activist left, and not a true radical, but noticeably more left wing than Obama or Ed Miliband.

The Starmer comparison is actually very good, the more I think about it. They’re both figures who are perceived as centre-left despite pushing policies which four years ago would have been seen as far-left. As always, Britain is more open to nationalisation and particularly obsessed with healthcare, but Biden is to the left of Starmer (and indeed Corbyn) on unions.



VegetableMan
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08 Oct 2020, 1:52 pm

Last year, Biden assured his corporate donors that "Nothing will fundamentally change." Now that you can believe. He's a miserable piece of s**t whom I wouldn't vote for if you put a shotgun to my head.

I predict he will probably win, though. But it won't be by a landslide. It's going to be a close race.


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08 Oct 2020, 1:53 pm

Sebastian Co? Kevin Keegan?


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08 Oct 2020, 3:56 pm

Big Joey Biden



Biscuitman
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08 Oct 2020, 3:57 pm

Mountain Goat wrote:
Kevin Keegan


"Trump has still got to go to Middlesbrough and get something...."



VegetableMan
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08 Oct 2020, 4:04 pm

Whomever wins, we all lose.


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Jakki
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08 Oct 2020, 4:28 pm

By the vice presidential debate last night , it just doesn’t look that good for Biden party . SeriousLy Trump and Pence surely know how to play the crowd.


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08 Oct 2020, 4:48 pm

Jakki wrote:
By the vice presidential debate last night , it just doesn’t look that good for Biden party . SeriousLy Trump and Pence surely know how to play the crowd.


Well, at least Pence attracted that fly.


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08 Oct 2020, 6:20 pm

I think Trump will win because the U.S. seems to have a history, of electing the same person twice all the time. So therefore it seems more likely?



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11 Oct 2020, 8:51 pm

To me there's a 60% chance it'll be Trump and a 40% chance it'll be Biden.


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11 Oct 2020, 9:44 pm

this whole thing makes me physically ill.



CarlM
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11 Oct 2020, 9:57 pm

I'm think Biden will win, but I am concerned it might be close after seeing all the support being shown for Trump. I predicted Trump in 2016 based on what the support I saw displayed locally. The Trump support seems more mainstream this time, while in 2016 in seemed more the "deplorables" to use Hillary's term. Could someone tell me what the 2020 Trump supporters are thinking? What about the chaos in DC appeals to them?


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11 Oct 2020, 10:14 pm

CarlM wrote:
I'm think Biden will win, but I am concerned it might be close after seeing all the support being shown for Trump. I predicted Trump in 2016 based on what the support I saw displayed locally. The Trump support seems more mainstream this time, while in 2016 in seemed more the "deplorables" to use Hillary's term. Could someone tell me what the 2020 Trump supporters are thinking? What about the chaos in DC appeals to them?

the only thing they care about was expressed succinctly by LBJ when he said "If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.” that is the only thing they care about, that is the whole thing. the so-called economic pretensions are just noise for the deception of pollsters. in light of obama, this was an entirely predictable reaction, and the greater hue and cry from the non-magas only encourages them.



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11 Oct 2020, 11:17 pm

From the outside, looking in, I'd suggest it is quite likely to be a Trump win.

The reasoning for this would be:
* There appears more enthusiasm for him as a candidate than for Mr Biden, based on coverage of rallies, etc.
* He has the "encumbant" position, which I understand has historically been effective.
* His opponent hasn't shown much enthusiasm\inclination to interact with the public in order to gain support, holding minimal "rallies" (in person or virtual) and\or press conferences.
* Supporters of his opponent have shown little-to-no interest in trying to hold meaningful discourse with his supporters in order to understand them and why they support him, instead demonising them, leading to a low chance of his supporters having any motivation\desire to see his opponent as being worthy of consideration.

Of course, the electoral college is the "great unknown" in this, but the lack of "enthusiasm" on display by the supporters of Mr Biden, coupled with the vitriol from Mr Trump's detractors aimed at his supporters over an extended period certainly make it appear the more likely outcome.


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12 Oct 2020, 12:29 pm

My feeling from what I have seen so far from both campaigns and the response to them is Biden is the more popular candidate and will get the most votes. EC could swing the election result the other way though.



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12 Oct 2020, 1:00 pm

Biscuitman wrote:
My feeling from what I have seen so far from both campaigns and the response to them is Biden is the more popular candidate and will get the most votes. EC could swing the election result the other way though.


The key states are Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Biden has a lead in all of those states.

Florida and Iowa are tossups, and Arizona, Georgia and even Texas are within reach for the Dems.


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