Pascal's Wager
techstepgenr8tion
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16 Dec 2020, 12:58 pm
Agreed.
The counterfactual, and I think maybe just at the cultural level in the US - I know a lot of nominal Catholics and Christians who, when you ask them about it, are Christians along the lay interpretation of Pascal, ie. 'Just in case' Christians.
I think there's a whole other half of that which they never think about explicitly, ie. church festivals, holidays, and social networks are woven through their lives. Some of them coach CYO sports. In a way you get most of the social advantages of Freemasonry by going to church regularly (helps if you're in the 100 to 105 IQ range - interests, habits, etc. so you additionally fit in socially with the other parishioner), it's just that the psycho-spiritual content you get is even more watered down and it amazes me that so many doctors, lawyers, and accountants effectively pay several thousand dollars a year to break out the crayons and color for an hour or two on the weekends but - that's where the easy social networking is at and, I suppose if one can't be arsed to look into any of it (college football and basketball are way more important), then they may indeed be legit Pascal's Wager Christians on top of that.
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16 Dec 2020, 4:22 pm
I'll have to look into Pascal's theological views, but as he was a Christian theologian I don't get how he would think an "meh okay I'll believe in God just to be on the safe side" attitude would work, if that's what he was proposing.
To be fair, he was only proposing it to those who doubted, not to those who had faith.
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16 Dec 2020, 4:25 pm
I believe Simpson's Rebuttal addresses Pascal's Wager best:
"What if we picked the wrong religion? Every week we're just making God madder and madder."
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16 Dec 2020, 6:18 pm
Pascal's wager would make sense if there was only one religion in the world.
There isn't.
In practice, those of us who are agnostic tend to lean on cultural/family tradition when it comes to random prayers in hours of need.
I'm not 100% convinced that some religious people aren't basically doing the same and even atheists, for eg there's a lot of atheists on youtube who spend their time debunking Christianity rather than for eg Hinduism.
I agree with my Christian dad 'there's no atheists in fox holes' but I think that doesn't make it a good test of faith. It's just the way we have been conditioned to cope with intense fear.
Another cultural thing is - why do people say 'Christians and Catholics'? Surely it's more 'Christians and Protestants' considering Protestantism is a branch of Christianity invented by Martin Luther.
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funeralxempire
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16 Dec 2020, 6:47 pm
For what it's worth it's never occurred to me to pray in life threatening situations because there's nothing real to pray to. That cliché is silly and untrue even if not every single atheist is absolutely certain.
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16 Dec 2020, 6:58 pm
For what it's worth it's never occurred to me to pray in life threatening situations because there's nothing real to pray to. That cliché is silly and untrue even if not every single atheist is absolutely certain.
Interesting. Out of curiosity, were you raised Christian, atheist or something else?
I see it as no different to how I know logically nothing bad will happen if I walk under a ladder but I'm smug about the fact I'm the only one who hasn't walked under a ladder since the building work started on our house & I'm the only one who hasn't had bad luck yet...
Like an emotional 'truth' learnt in childhood rather than a belief in something tangible. Falling back on childhood as a comfort blanket. I doubt many people in the 17th century had been raised atheists, even if they became atheists later in life so these 'emotional truths' might have been more true in Pascal's day.
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17 Dec 2020, 3:26 am
Reading Pascal's Wager and criticism of it, I start to view it not as much pro-religion as rather anti-libertinsm.
Possibly, Pascal in his historical and cultural context, didn't see a possibility of not believing in God and still holding to morality. I was raised in similar belief and only meeting several non-religious but moral people made me challenge this view.
Historically, I believe Voltaire explored the topic of morality of basic human decency, not sanctioned by faith or institutions. Voltaire was after Pascal.
So, in this context, not as much pro-religion as anti-libertine (with religion being the only alternative Pascal knew), the wager makes some sense to me.
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17 Dec 2020, 5:16 am
Possibly, Pascal in his historical and cultural context, didn't see a possibility of not believing in God and still holding to morality. I was raised in similar belief and only meeting several non-religious but moral people made me challenge this view.
Historically, I believe Voltaire explored the topic of morality of basic human decency, not sanctioned by faith or institutions. Voltaire was after Pascal.
So, in this context, not as much pro-religion as anti-libertine (with religion being the only alternative Pascal knew), the wager makes some sense to me.
That makes more sense to me as well.
funeralxempire
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17 Dec 2020, 5:20 am
For what it's worth it's never occurred to me to pray in life threatening situations because there's nothing real to pray to. That cliché is silly and untrue even if not every single atheist is absolutely certain.
Interesting. Out of curiosity, were you raised Christian, atheist or something else?
I see it as no different to how I know logically nothing bad will happen if I walk under a ladder but I'm smug about the fact I'm the only one who hasn't walked under a ladder since the building work started on our house & I'm the only one who hasn't had bad luck yet...
Like an emotional 'truth' learnt in childhood rather than a belief in something tangible. Falling back on childhood as a comfort blanket. I doubt many people in the 17th century had been raised atheists, even if they became atheists later in life so these 'emotional truths' might have been more true in Pascal's day.
My mom seems agnostic, she never really talks of religion in any regard. My dad is a believer and at least nominally Christian (his view of God accepts Jesus Christ as his lord and Savior).
I've never been a believer, when I was young I conceived of some sort of imaginary friend type god and then abandoned that when I admitted to myself I didn't actually believe in that either, it was just how I understood something I felt I had to believe on some level. Haven't looked back since.
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17 Dec 2020, 3:16 pm
Here is a criticism from RationalWiki.
Mods help fix
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Last edited by Cornflake on 17 Dec 2020, 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.: Fixed image display
17 Dec 2020, 8:30 pm
Agreed.
The counterfactual, and I think maybe just at the cultural level in the US - I know a lot of nominal Catholics and Christians who, when you ask them about it, are Christians along the lay interpretation of Pascal, ie. 'Just in case' Christians.
I think there's a whole other half of that which they never think about explicitly, ie. church festivals, holidays, and social networks are woven through their lives. Some of them coach CYO sports. In a way you get most of the social advantages of Freemasonry by going to church regularly (helps if you're in the 100 to 105 IQ range - interests, habits, etc. so you additionally fit in socially with the other parishioner), it's just that the psycho-spiritual content you get is even more watered down and it amazes me that so many doctors, lawyers, and accountants effectively pay several thousand dollars a year to break out the crayons and color for an hour or two on the weekends but - that's where the easy social networking is at and, I suppose if one can't be arsed to look into any of it (college football and basketball are way more important), then they may indeed be legit Pascal's Wager Christians on top of that.
My intuition is leaning towards an opposite conclusion.
Notwithstanding my above post, I am under the impression that a most general and ordinary interpretation of Pascal's wager would not presume belief in a certain faith or creed, but merely belief in God. A proponent of Pascal's wager could merely argue that simplicity is the primary vehicle for why he or she would draw the assumption that Pascal's wager is a validation of faith. I know some people who don't follow a particular doctrine and yet are believers as they are convinced by the nature of Pascal's wager.
I would not be, however, surprised in the least if experts in game theory continue to develop new criticisms or some sort of counterarguments that demises the effectiveness of arguing from simplicity.
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techstepgenr8tion
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17 Dec 2020, 10:15 pm
Notwithstanding my above post, I am under the impression that a most general and ordinary interpretation of Pascal's wager would not presume belief in a certain faith or creed, but merely belief in God. A proponent of Pascal's wager could merely argue that simplicity is the primary vehicle for why he or she would draw the assumption that Pascal's wager is a validation of faith. I know some people who don't follow a particular doctrine and yet are believers as they are convinced by the nature of Pascal's wager.
Oh... no, I was naming certain sects as examples not saying it's the property of one sect or another, although I get what you're saying that there might be a lot of people who buy Pascal's Wager but don't go to church. A deeper probing of my suggestion might be something like this - when life is going well for people, especially persistently from youth, they tend to care for little aside from hobbies and / or social climbing. Being concerned with big questions tends to be something generated from hardship, even permanent socioeconomic dislocation, hence it won't get their attention because there's little or no added social currency for doing so. Thus if they hear anything that's catchy and it feels right then it tends to land and stick. From that being in a church is having a social network, ie. they're showing up for other people and to be seen.
I'm not saying that bucket captures all Pascal Abrahamists and other non-pantheist/panentheist monotheists, just that it seems to capture many if not most that I've met. I will admit though, having friends who have Muslim in-laws, the social and family aspect of the religion is significantly stronger and with the added strength of belief also comes added concern over the laws - that part at least is something we've had less of in what's traditionally been the Christian portion of the populace. I grew up Catholic and a lot of the Jim Gaffigan jokes do apply.
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18 Dec 2020, 12:00 pm
Agreed.
The counterfactual, and I think maybe just at the cultural level in the US - I know a lot of nominal Catholics and Christians who, when you ask them about it, are Christians along the lay interpretation of Pascal, ie. 'Just in case' Christians.
I think there's a whole other half of that which they never think about explicitly, ie. church festivals, holidays, and social networks are woven through their lives. Some of them coach CYO sports. In a way you get most of the social advantages of Freemasonry by going to church regularly (helps if you're in the 100 to 105 IQ range - interests, habits, etc. so you additionally fit in socially with the other parishioner), it's just that the psycho-spiritual content you get is even more watered down and it amazes me that so many doctors, lawyers, and accountants effectively pay several thousand dollars a year to break out the crayons and color for an hour or two on the weekends but - that's where the easy social networking is at and, I suppose if one can't be arsed to look into any of it (college football and basketball are way more important), then they may indeed be legit Pascal's Wager Christians on top of that.
My intuition is leaning towards an opposite conclusion.
Notwithstanding my above post, I am under the impression that a most general and ordinary interpretation of Pascal's wager would not presume belief in a certain faith or creed, but merely belief in God. A proponent of Pascal's wager could merely argue that simplicity is the primary vehicle for why he or she would draw the assumption that Pascal's wager is a validation of faith. I know some people who don't follow a particular doctrine and yet are believers as they are convinced by the nature of Pascal's wager.
I would not be, however, surprised in the least if experts in game theory continue to develop new criticisms or some sort of counterarguments that demises the effectiveness of arguing from simplicity.
A generic God wouldn't necessarily punish people for disbelief and a God that does wouldn't necessarily think the wrong kind of worship was better than disbelief (it's not clear if Pascal himself even believed this and if he did he would have been violating the usual tenets of his faith). Pascal's wager is based on a complex idea of God taken from Abrahamic theology. It is not a simple idea that someone without exposure to religion would come up with.
techstepgenr8tion
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18 Dec 2020, 12:31 pm
Punishing takes effort, it seems like something the God in question would need to do for reasons beyond it's own control - ie. like it needs food and can't eat if people don't pray to it, and even there you have a threshold of 'having enough', a bit like a person who makes significantly $70k per year may be unhappy explicitly for lack thereof, around $70K in most places, if single, their needs are generally met, and upward of that it's mostly diminishing returns.
Short of that we're in TheraminTrees territory:
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18 Dec 2020, 1:25 pm
Pascals Wager; Sounds Like
Something i 'Saw' On Twitter 'Once';
It's About As Deep as Night or
Day Never Seeing
TWiLiGHT (Balance Tween DarK And LiGHT) Forevernow;
It Doesn't Take a Rocket Scientist; No, Just Deeper than
A 'Black And White Thinker', to Understand That As Far As
'Christianity' Goes; An All Forgiving God Named Jesus Who Loves
The Enemy Same As Self, Forever Forgiving, Who Turns The Other Cheek
Turning
Right
Back
Around in the
Same GD Story Even
More 'Psychopathic' than
Doctor Jekyll; No, Mostly
Mr. Hyde More Than 'the Trump MeMe'
Does Living Death; Yet Worse, Not Only Fires
'You'; Yet, Tortures You Forever An Eternity More Than Now
If You Don't Give A Poor Man on the Street
Something to Eat Per 'Matthew' calling You
And Making 'You' A 'Left-Hand Scape Goat';
Burning You Forever Like A Devil Never Forgiving You At all;
WHere, it's Worth Noting that
Earlier in the Story Again
The Poor Man of Spirit
Who Didn't Give the Poor
Man of Food Needed the Most
Help of All GaininG A MEal of Love;
Therefore, back to the same Story
In the Contradictory Overall one that
It is Great to Give Love to the Enemy;
So, one Day Perhaps the Enemy
Will Become LoVE iNCaRNaTE
And Actually Give
Both Spiritual
Food of Love
And Some Food to
Nourish A Tummy too... ON THE STREET;
Okay, now that (if) we will get nonsense
Out of the Way; There is No Room except
For 'Trump Fifth Avenue Conspiracy Theories' in Worrying
About Harm from the Oldest Most Ridiculous Conspiracy
Theory of All Written into A Book That When Love is Tested IT
Fires Life Forever in Torture; Please note, the IT Part out of the City Gutters...
Sorry Folks
NOT Sorry
ThaT Ain't
Got Nothing to Do
With Love That Requires
No Worship and Is Never
Afraid of Criticism; Yes,
Indeed Loving IT All
DarK Thru LiGHT AGAPE
For Giving Thanks Giving;
Yet, How You Really Get
SCR8WeD is if You Don't
Believe God Is Love; Birth It;
Breed it; Cooperate With it; Don't
Forget the Shadow Part of Your Reptile
Brain, Mastering the Aggression and Lust;
Regulating Limbic System Brain
Emotions, Integrating Senses from
Head To Toe; Yes, By God, Autotelic
Flow
Heaven
On Earth Now;
Yes, Within,
Navigating It
A Bit With
A Neo-Cortex;
Yet Do Remember
The Oldest Evolved
Brains Are Still the
True Pilots of Our
Trinity Mind IN
Body Balance Soul;
Pascal's Real Wager
Should Have Been
How to Avoid Hell On Earth
As Presented in Nightmares Ranging
From Narcissistic to Psychopathic Intent
In Old Antiquated Stories That Do Present
All the Evil and Good In One Man Named God to The Extreme...
So Which
Side of
The Razor
Do Ya Wanna Fall into Or
LiVE oN NoW; Hell Or Heaven;
Hope and Love Or Fear and Hate;
Ignorance Or 'Sight'; Night Or Day;
True DarK and LiGHT is ReaLiTY
At Best TWiLiGHT iN BaLaNCE;
YeS iN Both TrutH and Lies;
How About Truly
Living
Now
For It's
True, if You
Do, THere is No
Tomorrow Ever to Worry About Now....
Meh, All Ya Need is Love, A Little Autotelic
Flow; And Don't Believe in Fifth Avenue Devil Deals;
Yet, Do Do Love; You Won't Go Wrong in Heaven Now
As Long as You Do it with Least Harm Now That's A God i Will BeLiVE iN Now...
And Honestly it Does Reflect A Bit of 'Good Cop Matthew' Ghost Author(s) With Pen Name too...
Seen the
Mercy
of Death
Up Close
At Hand In me,
And Others Same;
There is More About
Life to Be Afraid of than Death;
Yet, On the Other Hand, THere is
More to Do than Be Living Dead....
-Still Putting The Theism in Real Love for 60 Years,
6 Months, 12 Days, 1 Hour, And 6 Minutes; Whoops
60 Seconds, Make that 7
Minutes...
-me
Yeah, Honestly instead
of MaKinG Wagers You Could
Start A Love Train That LiveS on True Instead...
Meh...
Just
one of
Many Views
And Suggestions
Still Coming Sooner than Soon...
-me Again...
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19 Dec 2020, 10:33 am
I think that an important consideration is whether it is even possible to will yourself to believe something. I find myself agreeing with Charles Peirce on this point:
...
But this method of fixing belief, which may be called the method of tenacity, will be unable to hold its ground in practice. The social impulse is against it. The man who adopts it will find that other men think differently from him, and it will be apt to occur to him, in some saner moment, that their opinions are quite as good as his own, and this will shake his confidence in his belief. This conception, that another man's thought or sentiment may be equivalent to one's own, is a distinctly new step, and a highly important one. It arises from an impulse too strong in man to be suppressed, without danger of destroying the human species. Unless we make ourselves hermits, we shall necessarily influence each other's opinions; so that the problem becomes how to fix belief, not in the individual merely, but in the community.
That is from "The Fixation of Belief" and I think that he is correct. We cannot simply decide to believe something because we think that it would be a nice thing to believe. Our beliefs have to be motivated by a real understanding of the reasons to think they are true.
