India’s covid-19 crisis is a dire warning for all countries

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The covid-19 crisis in India is a massive setback for the entire world. The scale of the nation’s surge is a warning not only for its neighboring countries, which are also experiencing sharp increases in cases, but also for countries around the globe. If we do not heed this warning and work on vaccine equity, we risk a forever pandemic with long-term cycles of lockdowns, economic damage and constant fear.

India is reporting more than 380,000 cases and 3,500 deaths daily. Both are underestimates. The Indian health-care system is completely overwhelmed. It is impossible to find hospital beds. Supplies such as oxygen are incredibly scarce, and there is a huge backlog with diagnostic testing. Many people with sick family members and friends in India — including us — are checking in on them. This time around, younger people are sick and, as is always the case, the poor are hit the hardest.

The devastating second wave in India is the result of a perfect storm: a failure to plan for a second wave; premature relaxation of public health measures; large gatherings; insufficient vaccination coverage; and newer variants such as B.1.1.7 and B.1.617 that are highly transmissible and potentially more severe.

India has 95,000 intensive care beds and 48,000 ventilators. By mid-May, it is projected that the country will need 340,000 beds and more than 700,000 ventilators. Rural India has few of these and is already hit hard. India needs the global community’s support to survive this crisis.

Even as India struggles to get the second wave under control, cases are surging among India’s neighbors, including Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. While the exact variant driving the new surges among India’s neighbors is unclear, the B.1.617 variant has already spread to more than 18 countries.

Other countries in South Asia have far less resources and medical infrastructure compared with India. Nepal, for example, has 1,486 ICU beds and 634 ventilators , and Nepal’s health ministry is anticipating a need to treat 15,000 ICU patients by July. Bangladesh, home to 163 million people, has only 1,134 covid-19 ICU beds. Pakistan, the fifth-largest country in the world, has fewer than 4,000 ventilators. India’s neighbors can ill afford the kind of devastation India is experiencing.

Vaccination coverage in these countries is too low to prevent surges. Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal have vaccinated 1 percent, 3.5 percent and 7 percent of their populations, respectively, with a single dose. And vaccination numbers are not likely to ramp up soon, given that India is now prioritizing domestic vaccination efforts.

Another truly frightening scenario is the spread of the more transmissible and lethal variants to low-income countries, especially on the South American and African continents. The uncontrolled outbreak in Brazil (driven by the aggressive P.1 variant) has already posed a threat for many South American countries.

Most countries in Africa have limited health infrastructure and cannot possibly deal with the severe disease typical of the newer variants. As the variant that emerged in South Africa has shown, the continent has limited capacity for such surges. It is estimated that there are fewer than 2,000 ventilators across 41 African countries. Ten African countries have none at all.

It has become painfully clear that newer variants of the virus have transformed the nature of this pandemic. We cannot just vaccinate rich countries and hope that we will be safe. The only way to end this pandemic is to end it everywhere. Otherwise, we will forever play whack-a-mole with a constantly mutating virus.

History will not be kind to us if we do not ensure global access to covid-19 vaccines. The rollout of highly effective vaccines in record time is one of the greatest triumphs of science. But the hoarding of vaccines and roadblocks around sharing raw materials and information on how to make these vaccines globally will be seen as our biggest strategic mistake.

Global leaders must collaborate, waive intellectual property rights, share technology, and allow and support more countries to manufacture vaccines. Sharing of the mRNA vaccine recipe is critical, since these vaccines can be quickly redesigned to keep up with the newer variants.

So what caused the crisis in India? Who do we blame?

So what caused the crisis in India? Whom do we blame?

So what caused the crisis in India? Who do we blame?

So what caused the crisis in India? Who do we blame?

... It's pretty gross that there are probably facilities in India (and elsewhere) that could be manufacturing vaccines that aren't because they're not allowed to/aren't licensed to/can't afford to etc. Big pharma would rather let Millions of people die than give away the recipes for their vaccines.

...Complacency and underestimating Covid...

Maybe they're not concerned?

They do operate under a Caste System. The ultra wealthy are leaving on $20,000.00 flights to the UK and UAE. The majority of those getting sick and dying are bound to be poorer "lower," caste people of no concern to the wealthy professional & political classes.

The Caste system they have there means a lot will die anyway sadly. The lower caste are called the untouchables, they do things like body disposal and cleaning feces off the streets, they can literally never become anything else or they'll get shot basically. The untouchable girls basically get raped and then thrown away by the different caste levels, they treat them like human garbage it's disgusting. Even dogs get treated better.

I don't really see much hope for them in this situation to be honest unless a humanitarian outsider comes in to help them.

It will never happen because those people and whoever they're associated with will be killed for rocking the boat.

I know someone in Canadian law enforcement that has a coworker who's family owns slaves in India. Seems wrong that a Canadian federal law enforcement officer could own slaves in India.. but he says "You don't understand, if we pay them, we will all be killed - my whole family." None of the others in the upper land owning castes want to change the system At All. So the best they can do is be kind to their servants, give them everything they need, not overwork them etc so they have a reasonably comfortable life.