Is there a chance something like this will happen ?

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chris1989
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19 May 2021, 11:52 am

I have heard of people saying that this pandemic is a once in a 100 year situation because people look at the pandemic of 1918-20 and so on but I don't think pandemics last every 100 years. I seem to think is there always a chance we could experience a global crisis or disaster such as this, I seem to feel for some reason quite envious of those people older than me maybe 10 years older than me who didn't have to endure a terrifying global crisis such as this and lived their lives to the full. I feel during the world wars a lot of people especially young people had to stop doing all the things they enjoy in their lives for 4 or 6 years and fight until peace returned. People seem make out as if this will go on as long as the world wars did when pandemics and war are two different things. I seem to think there is a chance of anything such as la palma in the canary islands collapsing causing a mega tsunami, and a meteor heading our way to destroy the world (which according to some program I saw was in every 100 million years). I do remember an expert saying that when we read and hear about something like that happening in the future, we don't think they'll ever happen to us, we just ignore them and get on with our lives but these things have happened and its not like they are never going to stop happening again just because humans are around.



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19 May 2021, 12:21 pm

The Pandemic of 1918-1919 was much worse than this COVID Pandemic.

Most people came out of the 1918-1919 all right; they will come out of this present one all right.

Things are already beginning to open up. Even India has had a lower positivity rate recently; things will get better for India, too.



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19 May 2021, 3:22 pm

My grandmother (born in the 1930s) said she's never known a global pandemic like this in her whole life (I'm talking about virus-related pandemics, not war). My mum (born in the 1960s) has never known anything like this either in her life.

I know we've had new diseases along the way but it always seemed to stay in the countries they started off in. For example, with ebola in 2014, it didn't cause a global pandemic like this.


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kraftiekortie
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19 May 2021, 4:02 pm

In the late 1950s, we had something called the "Asian Flu." It was considered a "worldwide pandemic"----but it wasn't as serious as COVID.

In the late 1960s, it was the "Hong Kong Flu." It wasn't even as serious as the Asian Flu.



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19 May 2021, 5:46 pm

Unfortunately, people's memory is not very reliable. It is odd how we forgot how diseases have been going through our society. In the 1950s, polio was killing and paralyzing 15,000 children every year in the US (vaccines eradicated it in the 1970s in the US) and killed half a million world wide. 650,000 people have died in the AIDS epidemic in the US and 13,000 still die each year. World wide in 2004, 1.7 million people died of AIDS. Now, about 650,000 people die of the disease around the world each year

We also forget close calls. Many of these diseases, like COVID, start in animals and our food supply. We have slaughtered millions of cattle, pigs, and chickens to control Mad Cow Disease, swine flu, and avian flu. HIN1 and SAR have both resulted in human casualties.

It is called survivor's bias. Things we survive makes us under estimate risk. The scientists I know that study disease are not so optimistic. Yes, 1918 and 2020 were unusually large. But these are not on some schedule. Another pandemic could happen next year.



Joe90
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19 May 2021, 7:21 pm

A virus pandemic like this, where people are dying and the surviving people are controlled by the government by going in and out of lockdowns and not being allowed to see their friends and families, etc, is pretty hard to actually forget. Other diseases mentioned didn't seem to cause a global crisis where society had to shut down and everyone had to stay away from each other. I think this is the biggest virus global pandemic since the Spanish flu in 1918. I'm not saying the worst, but the biggest (although the whole world is acting like COVID is worse than Spanish flu, AIDS and ebola put together).


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19 May 2021, 8:01 pm

Joe90 wrote:
A virus pandemic like this, where people are dying and the surviving people are controlled by the government by going in and out of lockdowns and not being allowed to see their friends and families, etc, is pretty hard to actually forget. Other diseases mentioned didn't seem to cause a global crisis where society had to shut down and everyone had to stay away from each other. I think this is the biggest virus global pandemic since the Spanish flu in 1918. I'm not saying the worst, but the biggest (although the whole world is acting like COVID is worse than Spanish flu, AIDS and ebola put together).


The Spanish Flu was handled in ways much like the current Covid. Lockdowns. Forbidding crowds to gather for events. But it was more piecemeal than now. Different parts of the country, and of the world, would have quarntines and then lift the quarntines without coordination or rhyme or reason. They paid the price by having far more deaths than covid.

Polio and AIDs were terrible pandemics. But polio only affected a certain age group. AIDs takes more than just breathing on folks in the bus with you to spread.



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19 May 2021, 8:12 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
Joe90 wrote:
A virus pandemic like this, where people are dying and the surviving people are controlled by the government by going in and out of lockdowns and not being allowed to see their friends and families, etc, is pretty hard to actually forget. Other diseases mentioned didn't seem to cause a global crisis where society had to shut down and everyone had to stay away from each other. I think this is the biggest virus global pandemic since the Spanish flu in 1918. I'm not saying the worst, but the biggest (although the whole world is acting like COVID is worse than Spanish flu, AIDS and ebola put together).


The Spanish Flu was handled in ways much like the current Covid. Lockdowns. Forbidding crowds to gather for events. But it was more piecemeal than now. Different parts of the country, and of the world, would have quarntines and then lift the quarntines without coordination or rhyme or reason. They paid the price by having far more deaths than covid.

Polio and AIDs were terrible pandemics. But polio only affected a certain age group. AIDs takes more than just breathing on folks in the bus with you to spread.


I know the Spanish flu was bad, as I said, there hasn't been a global pandemic since the Spanish flu.

Can AIDS actually be airborne then? Because if it was, there wasn't any global lockdowns and social distancing in the 80s or 90s because of it. My mum has a good memory of the 80s and she doesn't recall any lockdowns or the wearing of masks being mandatory or anything.


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19 May 2021, 8:14 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
Joe90 wrote:
A virus pandemic like this, where people are dying and the surviving people are controlled by the government by going in and out of lockdowns and not being allowed to see their friends and families, etc, is pretty hard to actually forget. Other diseases mentioned didn't seem to cause a global crisis where society had to shut down and everyone had to stay away from each other. I think this is the biggest virus global pandemic since the Spanish flu in 1918. I'm not saying the worst, but the biggest (although the whole world is acting like COVID is worse than Spanish flu, AIDS and ebola put together).


The Spanish Flu was handled in ways much like the current Covid. Lockdowns. Forbidding crowds to gather for events. But it was more piecemeal than now. Different parts of the country, and of the world, would have quarntines and then lift the quarntines without coordination or rhyme or reason. They paid the price by having far more deaths than covid.

Polio and AIDs were terrible pandemics. But polio only affected a certain age group. AIDs takes more than just breathing on folks in the bus with you to spread.


I believe that advances in technology has played a part.



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19 May 2021, 8:59 pm

Climate change. Pandemics. Wars (the closer you get to them the bigger they look). Tsunamis. Global economic meltdowns. Radioactive meltdowns (and their encores!) And their aftermath.

And whatever this is.


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20 May 2021, 12:40 pm

The Medieval bubonic plague was a pandemic. The 1918 Spanish Flu was a pandemic. The 1950's polio was a pandemic. The 1980's HIV was a pandemic. The 2003 SARS was a pandemic. The 2014 Ebola was a pandemic.

The 2020 Election Infection wasn't a "pandemic"; it was a SCAMdemic, with an end goal to kick Mr. Trump out of office. It was made in a lab in Wuhan, financed by George Soros, advertised by the Democrat-owned media, and spread by natural human behaviors; everything went right according to the Democrats' plan. Then the mass quarantines started, allegedly for our own good, but in reality meant to crash the economy that Mr. Trump helped build and severely wreck people's mental health.

It all worked out for the Democrats. Millions of people lost their jobs. Thousands of small businesses closed forever. Countless friendships were severed by social distancing. Lots of people committed suicide from despair and/or social isolation. On top of that, every major city in America had its downtown looted or burned down by Democrat-sponsored violent criminals, costing billions of dollars in damages. (Notice how the Democrat voters did their crimes without masks or social distancing, and weren't shamed for it.) Mr. Trump was supposed to get blamed for it all, and therefore lose the election. If that's not a scamdemic, then my name is Kamala Harris.

And it was all done to get one person out of office! :evil:


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Last edited by Aspie1 on 20 May 2021, 12:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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20 May 2021, 12:46 pm

Hi, Kamala! Nice of you to visit us!!


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20 May 2021, 1:42 pm

I feel like someone has drunk the Kool-Aid.....

The reason why Trump is out of office----is because he deserves to be out of office. He was defeated by Biden fair and square.

One could be conservative up the gazoo....and still think Trump was unfit for office.

Trump did not show any leadership during the COVID crises......it's a PANDEMIC, no matter how you slice it. I saw the refrigerator trucks in NYC early about March/April, 2020.

Try telling someone in Delhi, India, whose whole family died of COVID, that this is a "Scamdemic." There's no Trump to boot out of office in India----yet COVID is killing about 4,000 people a day there (official figures).



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20 May 2021, 8:27 pm

Jiheisho wrote:
Unfortunately, people's memory is not very reliable. It is odd how we forgot how diseases have been going through our society. In the 1950s, polio was killing and paralyzing 15,000 children every year in the US (vaccines eradicated it in the 1970s in the US) and killed half a million world wide. 650,000 people have died in the AIDS epidemic in the US and 13,000 still die each year. World wide in 2004, 1.7 million people died of AIDS. Now, about 650,000 people die of the disease around the world each year

We also forget close calls. Many of these diseases, like COVID, start in animals and our food supply. We have slaughtered millions of cattle, pigs, and chickens to control Mad Cow Disease, swine flu, and avian flu. HIN1 and SAR have both resulted in human casualties.

It is called survivor's bias. Things we survive makes us under estimate risk. The scientists I know that study disease are not so optimistic. Yes, 1918 and 2020 were unusually large. But these are not on some schedule. Another pandemic could happen next year.


For more info and discussion on how past pandemics were handled see this thread.


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20 May 2021, 11:41 pm

Aspie1 wrote:
The Medieval bubonic plague was a pandemic. The 1918 Spanish Flu was a pandemic. The 1950's polio was a pandemic. The 1980's HIV was a pandemic. The 2003 SARS was a pandemic. The 2014 Ebola was a pandemic.

The 2020 Election Infection wasn't a "pandemic"; it was a SCAMdemic, with an end goal to kick Mr. Trump out of office. It was made in a lab in Wuhan, financed by George Soros, advertised by the Democrat-owned media, and spread by natural human behaviors; everything went right according to the Democrats' plan. Then the mass quarantines started, allegedly for our own good, but in reality meant to crash the economy that Mr. Trump helped build and severely wreck people's mental health.

It all worked out for the Democrats. Millions of people lost their jobs. Thousands of small businesses closed forever. Countless friendships were severed by social distancing. Lots of people committed suicide from despair and/or social isolation. On top of that, every major city in America had its downtown looted or burned down by Democrat-sponsored violent criminals, costing billions of dollars in damages. (Notice how the Democrat voters did their crimes without masks or social distancing, and weren't shamed for it.) Mr. Trump was supposed to get blamed for it all, and therefore lose the election. If that's not a scamdemic, then my name is Kamala Harris.

And it was all done to get one person out of office! :evil:


:roll: :roll: :roll:


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20 May 2021, 11:57 pm

While historically the odds of a pandemic as bad as this one may have been around 1 in 100 for any given year, I think they're probably quite a bit higher now due to climate change, increasing population, and increasing global connectivity. Each one explained:

1. Increasing human population - The more of us there are, the more space we need. The more we expand our footprint around the globe, the more animal habitats we overlap with or interrupt. The more that happens, the more opportunity there is for crossover spread of viruses.

2. Climate change - This is driving migration for animals and humans, causing more interactions and thus more crossover spread of viruses between species. This provides new opportunities for viruses to mutate, as well.

3. There is more global travel, both for business and pleasure, than at any point in human history. That means that any pandemic can spread around the world much more quickly than at any time in the past.

The good news is that we know more about viruses than we ever have before, our ability to develop vaccines took an incredible leap forward this year, and the odds in any random year are still pretty low.