Page 1 of 1 [ 11 posts ] 

weirdperson75000
Tufted Titmouse
Tufted Titmouse

User avatar

Joined: 31 Oct 2017
Age: 28
Gender: Male
Posts: 30

10 Jun 2021, 9:41 am

Many researchers and economists claim that "China will get old before it gets rich" 8O

As stated in this article : https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chi ... 021-05-11/

China's population grew at its slowest in the last decade since the 1950s as births declined, sowing doubt over Beijing's ability to power its economy as it succumbs to the same ageing trends afflicting developed nations like Japan.

With growth having ebbed ever since a one-child policy was introduced in the late 1970s, the 2020 results of the country's once-a-decade census on Tuesday showed the population of mainland China increased 5.38% to 1.41 billion. That was the least since modern census-taking began in 1953.


Since the Chinese economy is based on a abundant low-cost and low-skilled labour, the ageing trend in China means that the Chinese working age population will drop, which will lead to an increase in wages and a loss in competitiveness. Besides that, it will cause a rise in social expenditure.

According to many, the Chinese economy will never overtake the US economy. :D



naturalplastic
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 26 Aug 2010
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 26,873
Location: temperate zone

10 Jun 2021, 1:59 pm

So ...the Yellow Peril isnt all that perilous?

Not the first time.

In the Eighties we were all convinced that Japan would, not just overtake, but takeover, the US (via buying all of our real estate).

The xenophobia was reflected in this 1993 police thriller starring Wesley Snipes, and Sean Connery.

Japan's economy seemed like a juggarnaut for decades, but tanked soon after this movie came out, andJapan never returned to its "peril" status since.



GGPViper
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 23 Sep 2009
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,880

10 Jun 2021, 2:52 pm

Well, the Chinese economy overtook the US economy in 2016...

However, the demographic challenges facing China economy are very much real. In the current scenario, the Chinese population will decrease to 800 million by the end of the 21st century - unless they find some way to increase the fertility rate.

The Chinese government has actually just introduced a "3 child policy" (due to the census mentioned in the OP)...

But I actually attended a presentation last week about the demographic challenges in China. And this new policy is apparently mostly seen as silly joke among the Chinese themselves; they are not having so few children because of government restrictions, but because of the prohibitively high costs of raising children (especially in the cities). A 3 child policy won't change that, nor will a 5, 10 or 20 child policy.

Although the Chinese economy is not longer based on "abundant low-cost and low-skilled labour" (this is 2021, not 2001), it will likely have to rely at least partly on immigration from other countries to keep their economy going...

But this is likely going to be a thorny political issue in such an ethnically homogenous country... So far, Japan and South Korea have opted to see their population declining (for more than a decade in Japan, and since 2020 in South Korea) rather than rely on immigration... but it is not a long-term viable strategy if the fertility rate continues to be so low...



carlos55
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 5 Mar 2018
Gender: Male
Posts: 790
Location: uk

10 Jun 2021, 3:31 pm

naturalplastic
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 26 Aug 2010
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 26,873
Location: temperate zone

12 Jun 2021, 7:25 am

GGPViper wrote:
Well, the Chinese economy overtook the US economy in 2016...


Well, no, it did not. Not even close.

The 2018 GNP of China was 13. 18 trillion dollars.

That of the US was 20.64 trillion dollars.

There was a big thing in the news in recent years about how China's "retail sector has now exceeded that of the US in size". A PART of its economy. But not its whole economy. Thats probably what youre thinking of.

But yes, China is solidly in second place. Well bigger than Japan (5.25 trillion), and European powers (Germany, France, and the UK, are all just behind Japan).

And yes...all of the Asian "tigers", and China may face demographic disaster.

Interesting how it worked out: China imposed the one child policy back in the days of Mao, to avert over population when China was still a rural third world country with a typical rural third world high birthrate. The rule caused China to get a head start on a tread that would have happened anyway a couple or three decades later: the decline of births caused by urbanization and industrialization that most societies go through. And now they face the opposite problem- of too few births.



carlos55
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 5 Mar 2018
Gender: Male
Posts: 790
Location: uk

12 Jun 2021, 9:20 am

naturalplastic wrote:
GGPViper wrote:
Well, the Chinese economy overtook the US economy in 2016...


Well, no, it did not. Not even close.

The 2018 GNP of China was 13. 18 trillion dollars.

That of the US was 20.64 trillion dollars.

There was a big thing in the news in recent years about how China's "retail sector has now exceeded that of the US in size". A PART of its economy. But not its whole economy. Thats probably what youre thinking of.

But yes, China is solidly in second place. Well bigger than Japan (5.25 trillion), and European powers (Germany, France, and the UK, are all just behind Japan).

And yes...all of the Asian "tigers", and China may face demographic disaster.

Interesting how it worked out: China imposed the one child policy back in the days of Mao, to avert over population when China was still a rural third world country with a typical rural third world high birthrate. The rule caused China to get a head start on a tread that would have happened anyway a couple or three decades later: the decline of births caused by urbanization and industrialization that most societies go through. And now they face the opposite problem- of too few births.


Depends which measuring stick you use officially GDP is used most of the time, the problem is many economists view GDP measuring as flawed in the 21st century since its largely based on national currency value.

The US dollar is worth more than the Chinese currency so it appears that the US economy is bigger, despite it including a lot of things like insurance, health care and financial instruments from Wall Street, that in a lot of cases the value is subjective and non tangibles.

PPP gives a better picture of industrial size and China’s economy overtook that of the US a few years back.

Using PPP gives a better picture of developing countries including like India and Russia that are actually bigger industrial powers than look on GDP.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visual ... y-gdp-ppp/



The_Face_of_Boo
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 16 Jun 2010
Age: 39
Gender: Male
Posts: 30,775
Location: Beirut, Lebanon.

12 Jun 2021, 9:44 am

Their men are realizing it’s not worth to get married.


_________________
Come here to get the Block functionality for Wrongplanet:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=390645


GGPViper
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 23 Sep 2009
Gender: Male
Posts: 5,880

12 Jun 2021, 12:35 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
GGPViper wrote:
Well, the Chinese economy overtook the US economy in 2016...

Well, no, it did not. Not even close.

My apologies, I was mistaken....

CIA World Factbook wrote:
Measured on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis that adjusts for price differences, China in 2017 stood as the largest economy in the world, surpassing the US in 2014 for the first time in modern history.

Source: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/ ... a/#economy

According to the CIA, it was in 2014, not 2016.

I stand corrected... :D



Misslizard
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 18 Jun 2012
Age: 57
Gender: Female
Posts: 15,584
Location: Aux Arcs

12 Jun 2021, 1:02 pm

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:
Their men are realizing it’s not worth to get married.

The women realized none of the men were worth marrying.


_________________
I am the dust that dances in the light. - Rumi


The_Face_of_Boo
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 16 Jun 2010
Age: 39
Gender: Male
Posts: 30,775
Location: Beirut, Lebanon.

12 Jun 2021, 3:26 pm

Misslizard wrote:
The_Face_of_Boo wrote:
Their men are realizing it’s not worth to get married.

The women realized none of the men were worth marrying.


:lol:

I was referring to something very well known about their culture though, it's extremely very demanding when it comes to marriage. It's not a culture that would have a lot of out of wedlock babies either.

https://www.thinkchina.sg/no-bride-pric ... iage-china

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-35727057

And yet users here are wondering why their fertility is dropping, well that's why!


_________________
Come here to get the Block functionality for Wrongplanet:
viewtopic.php?f=13&t=390645


Misslizard
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 18 Jun 2012
Age: 57
Gender: Female
Posts: 15,584
Location: Aux Arcs

12 Jun 2021, 3:59 pm

The_Face_of_Boo wrote:
Misslizard wrote:
The_Face_of_Boo wrote:
Their men are realizing it’s not worth to get married.

The women realized none of the men were worth marrying.


:lol:

I was referring to something very well known about their culture though, it's extremely very demanding when it comes to marriage. It's not a culture that would have a lot of out of wedlock babies either.

https://www.thinkchina.sg/no-bride-pric ... iage-china

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-35727057

And yet users here are wondering why their fertility is dropping, well that's why!

They should live in sin, more fun and much cheaper.


_________________
I am the dust that dances in the light. - Rumi