What if due to anti vaxxer’s herd immunity is a pipe dream?
ASPartOfMe
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05 Jul 2021, 8:38 am
It is time to face the reality that due to the anti vaxx movement full herd immunity is not going to happen in America. With the exception of children and maybe very poor people and very remote people those that want a vaccine can get it, and those who have not been vaccinated are probably never going to get it. Children under 12 can not get the vaccines but have have a very low death and hospitalization rate and the vaccines for them will probably will be approved within the next few months.
Probably, we are now nearing the point where it is time to say f**k the unvaccinated if they get sick and die it is their fault, why should we keep any restrictions with the ensuing economic and psychological damage they cause because of others individual choices?
The argument against the above is a combination of anti bodies losing their effectiveness and a variant that could have been prevented rendering the vaccines ineffective and runs rampant putting us back to April 2020. I can not guarantee that that infuriating scenario won’t happen and at least could have been partially prevented by continuing at least some restrictions.
My response is why should society restrict themselves for a variant that does not exist and may never exist?
There are caveats. I went to a family gathering where vaccinated me did mask up indoors because there was a unvaccinated child present. I still put the damn mask on when I am indoors and am uncertain everybody there is vaccinated. This might truly well be my new normal because while my risk is probably quite low it is higher then the average person. Beyond that I am not losing much. I am not a 20 something NT that has an innate need to go to events packed full of people. There are those unfortunate souls with autoimmune disorders that will still need to live the lockdown life, but they have always had to do that.
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Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
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Last edited by ASPartOfMe on 05 Jul 2021, 1:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
05 Jul 2021, 11:08 am
It is worse than that: if COVID can run through the population, it can continue to mutate and become even more deadly or contagious. It is now endemic in our population, but having a large percentage of our population open to infection is just going to make a literal breeding ground.
And just imagine that small pox and polio were eradicated.
ASPartOfMe
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05 Jul 2021, 1:34 pm
All I can advise is keep her away from the media. They are not even bothering to concede their excitement about the reopenings.
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Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
05 Jul 2021, 1:40 pm
All I can advise is keep her away from the media. They are not even bothering to concede their excitement about the reopenings.
Seeing that she's a news junkie, that's a tall order.
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Oscar Meyer Lansky
05 Jul 2021, 1:49 pm
Well, then the countries which fail to achieve herd immunity will be repeatedly hampered by new outbreaks and rampant mutations, while the countries that achieve immunity will strive and move on to even greater glory, gusto and grandeur.
Oh, as a resident of Denmark I would like to *personally* thank the Anti Vaxxer crowd in Romania; due to their actions, vaccine hesitancy is so high in Romania that the government has now sold 1.17 million Pfizer-BionTech doses to Denmark - enough to fully vaccinate an additional 10 % of our population.
Thank you, Anti Vaxxers, for your outstanding humanitarian efforts! /snark
ASPartOfMe
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05 Jul 2021, 2:08 pm
And just imagine that small pox and polio were eradicated.
Or like the 1918 flu it can become less toxic and contagious. Anybody that tells they know how this will play out is lying. All I can advise is whatever decision you make about your restricting yourself prepare for it needing to change at anytime.
Funny you should mention Polio. Something happened during that vaccine rollout that illustrates the difference between the 1950s and now. Vaccines with the live virus were accidentally sent out causing tens of thousands of cases. Between the vaccine and the epidemics vaccinated people started ten people were killed and One Hundred and Sixty Nine Paralyzed. The rollout was halted for nine days and then continued. I have not read any reports of massive denial, hesitancy, or conspiracy theories as a result. Then whatever the authorities said was not questioned. Ever since I was young the 50s have been looked at as bland and stifling of any type of alternative thought. This is true but in this situation it worked for them.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
05 Jul 2021, 2:41 pm
And just imagine that small pox and polio were eradicated.
Or like the 1918 flu it can become less toxic and contagious. Anybody that tells they know how this will play out is lying. All I can advise is whatever decision you make about your restricting yourself prepare for it needing to change at anytime.
Funny you should mention Polio. Something happened during that vaccine rollout that illustrates the difference between the 1950s and now. Vaccines with the live virus were accidentally sent out causing tens of thousands of cases. Between the vaccine and the epidemics vaccinated people started ten people were killed and One Hundred and Sixty Nine Paralyzed. The rollout was halted for nine days and then continued. I have not read any reports of massive denial, hesitancy, or conspiracy theories as a result. Then whatever the authorities said was not questioned. Ever since I was young the 50s have been looked at as bland and stifling of any type of alternative thought. This is true but in this situation it worked for them.
Sure, it can go both ways (the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak was from a less deadly variant brought back from the First WW a year before, so that flu strain first mutated into something more deadly). The delta version is showing that it can get worse. Generally speaking, building public policy on the idea things can only get better, especially with a counterfactual, is not very logical.
Polio was primarily a child's disease and so the target population was a bit different--you need to convince a parent to protect a child from dying or ending up in an iron lung. It was also a time when infant morality was more common (and the internet had not been invented). But that incident you mention did in fact lower vaccination rates as public trust in the vaccine fell: Lessons from the Salk Polio Vaccine: Methods for and Risks of Rapid Translation
But anti-vaxx positions and the public opposition from them are as old as vaccines: History of Anti-vaccination Movements
ASPartOfMe
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05 Jul 2021, 3:37 pm
And just imagine that small pox and polio were eradicated.
Or like the 1918 flu it can become less toxic and contagious. Anybody that tells they know how this will play out is lying. All I can advise is whatever decision you make about your restricting yourself prepare for it needing to change at anytime.
Funny you should mention Polio. Something happened during that vaccine rollout that illustrates the difference between the 1950s and now. Vaccines with the live virus were accidentally sent out causing tens of thousands of cases. Between the vaccine and the epidemics vaccinated people started ten people were killed and One Hundred and Sixty Nine Paralyzed. The rollout was halted for nine days and then continued. I have not read any reports of massive denial, hesitancy, or conspiracy theories as a result. Then whatever the authorities said was not questioned. Ever since I was young the 50s have been looked at as bland and stifling of any type of alternative thought. This is true but in this situation it worked for them.
Sure, it can go both ways (the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak was from a less deadly variant brought back from the First WW a year before, so that flu strain first mutated into something more deadly). The delta version is showing that it can get worse. Generally speaking, building public policy on the idea things can only get better, especially with a counterfactual, is not very logical.
Polio was primarily a child's disease and so the target population was a bit different--you need to convince a parent to protect a child from dying or ending up in an iron lung. It was also a time when infant morality was more common (and the internet had not been invented). But that incident you mention did in fact lower vaccination rates as public trust in the vaccine fell: Lessons from the Salk Polio Vaccine: Methods for and Risks of Rapid Translation
But anti-vaxx positions and the public opposition from them are as old as vaccines: History of Anti-vaccination Movements
We have two concurrent situations, uncertainty not only about variants but for how long and how effective antibodies will both from vaccinated and those who have contracted COVID, and a probable situation of permanent and continual outbreaks of some sort.
The politicians have made their decisions everything has or will be opening up. Being infuriated at the people that caused this is a normal reaction but at some point each individual is going to have to make a decision about how to live with this new normal.
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
ASPartOfMe
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05 Jul 2021, 4:54 pm
England takes a big Covid-19 gamble as Johnson sets out plan to scrap lockdown rules
As part of the lifting of restrictions -- dubbed "Freedom Day" -- there would be a move away from legal restrictions to personal responsibility, said Johnson.
This meant lifting of laws on face coverings, social distancing, and instructions to work from home.
"I don't want people to get de-mob happy," said Johnson. "This is still far from over."
But he added that this was on balance the time to reopen, given the summer season and school holidays.
"If we can't open in the next few weeks ... then when can we?" Johnson said.
Meanwhile the number of infections is predicted to rise if measures are rescinded, but the government believes its vaccination campaign has weakened the link between cases and hospitalizations and death.
Around 86% of the UK's adult population has received a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine and more than 63% have received a second dose, according to government figures. On Sunday, the UK recorded 24,248 new cases and 15 coronavirus-related deaths.
As a fresh wave of infection continues to swell in the UK, concern is growing among health care experts over the impact of a relaxation of pandemic measures.
Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist and senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, said the government's decision to press forward with England's unlocking was "unsurprising" and would put significant pressure on hospitals once more, in addition to exposing many more people to "long Covid."
"The government has consistently ignored the advice and prioritized short-term economic gain," Gurdasani told CNN. "Even at the current rates, we're in for trouble, and opening up further of course increases those risks greatly. Not only would I say we need to really pause opening up further until we vaccinate many more people, but also deal with the current wave."
This is not the flu, like Sajid Javid seems to suggest," Gurdasani said. "Please tell me when flu has led to 400,000 people having chronic disability in a period of 16 months ... why would we want to expose so much of our population to herd immunity through natural infection when we have safe and effective vaccines that could be given to them in the coming weeks."
Stephen Griffin, an associate professor in the School of Medicine at the University of Leeds, said in a statement provided to the UK's Science Media Centre (SMC) that vaccines provide "a clear route" out of the pandemic.
Griffin added that Johnson's plan, which effectively shifts the responsibility for safety measures from the government to individuals, represented "an abdication of responsibility from the government."
_________________
Professionally Identified and joined WP August 26, 2013
DSM 5: Autism Spectrum Disorder, DSM IV: Aspergers Moderate Severity
It is Autism Acceptance Month
“My autism is not a superpower. It also isn’t some kind of god-forsaken, endless fountain of suffering inflicted on my family. It’s just part of who I am as a person”. - Sara Luterman
05 Jul 2021, 5:28 pm
As part of the lifting of restrictions -- dubbed "Freedom Day" -- there would be a move away from legal restrictions to personal responsibility, said Johnson.
This meant lifting of laws on face coverings, social distancing, and instructions to work from home.
"I don't want people to get de-mob happy," said Johnson. "This is still far from over."
But he added that this was on balance the time to reopen, given the summer season and school holidays.
"If we can't open in the next few weeks ... then when can we?" Johnson said.
Meanwhile the number of infections is predicted to rise if measures are rescinded, but the government believes its vaccination campaign has weakened the link between cases and hospitalizations and death.
Around 86% of the UK's adult population has received a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine and more than 63% have received a second dose, according to government figures. On Sunday, the UK recorded 24,248 new cases and 15 coronavirus-related deaths.
As a fresh wave of infection continues to swell in the UK, concern is growing among health care experts over the impact of a relaxation of pandemic measures.
Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist and senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, said the government's decision to press forward with England's unlocking was "unsurprising" and would put significant pressure on hospitals once more, in addition to exposing many more people to "long Covid."
"The government has consistently ignored the advice and prioritized short-term economic gain," Gurdasani told CNN. "Even at the current rates, we're in for trouble, and opening up further of course increases those risks greatly. Not only would I say we need to really pause opening up further until we vaccinate many more people, but also deal with the current wave."
This is not the flu, like Sajid Javid seems to suggest," Gurdasani said. "Please tell me when flu has led to 400,000 people having chronic disability in a period of 16 months ... why would we want to expose so much of our population to herd immunity through natural infection when we have safe and effective vaccines that could be given to them in the coming weeks."
Stephen Griffin, an associate professor in the School of Medicine at the University of Leeds, said in a statement provided to the UK's Science Media Centre (SMC) that vaccines provide "a clear route" out of the pandemic.
Griffin added that Johnson's plan, which effectively shifts the responsibility for safety measures from the government to individuals, represented "an abdication of responsibility from the government."
Fun fact: "abdication of responsibility" is Johnson's real first name. His full name is Abdication of Responsibility Boris de Pfeffel-Johnson. His friends and family call him Abby.
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I can read facial expressions. I did the test.
05 Jul 2021, 6:31 pm
Yes I read about Boris telling us it's time to learn to live with Covid. Just hoping we're not going to have to learn to die with it instead. I see the BMA are saying he's making a mistake. Cases per day are rising exponentially, death rate looks like it could be starting to follow suit, and as they say it's a great breeding ground for the evolution of a breakthrough strain. We might get away with it, but we might not. Judging by these numbers, I'm not too keen on binning the restrictions:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Of course I can only see what's happening to date, i.e. 5th July 2021, and that page updates every day, so anything could happen, but I don't know any reason why it wouldn't continue to rise. Ending restrictions certainly won't ameliorate the trend.
I don't know of any significant anti-vax movement in the UK, and I don't know that people refusing the jab is the main problem. I gather over 80% of adults are now vaccinated, don't know how that compares to the USA. AFAIK the UK gov isn't vaccinating children, so I wonder if that could be a bigger problem when it comes to spreading the virus. Strangely enough, the US number trends are looking better than the UK's so far.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
05 Jul 2021, 7:56 pm
Hey, it is their choice, not mine!
_________________
05 Jul 2021, 8:04 pm
128,000 people in the UK have died from COVID (Currently, 128 deaths over the last seven days)
1,752 traffic deaths were reported in 2019 in the UK
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