MIT finds Anti-vaxx is Informed, Scientific and Sofisticated

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Mikah
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20 Jul 2021, 6:16 am

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/r ... d-n1462591

MIT Study: Vaccine Hesitancy Is 'Highly Informed, Scientifically Literate,' and 'Sophisticated'

Sometimes the perception of irrationality is almost accidental, because arguments are usually social interactions, not strictly logical exercises. A vaccine skeptic may brush off a proponent by saying, “It’s approved for emergency use only; it’s not FDA-approved. I don’t think we should require it.” The skeptic is beginning with a fact that’s easily established and shareable. But when pressed, they might reveal that their line of thinking is elsewhere: “There are no long-term studies, and I’m worried about possible long-term effects.” Because the two objections aren’t exactly logically connected, the proponent concludes it is irrationalism all the way down.

But a study done at MIT showed that a substantial portion of public-health skepticism was highly informed, scientifically literate, and sophisticated in the use of data. Skeptics used the same data sets as those with the orthodox views on public health.


...

But most vaccine skepticism, if by that we mean reluctance, is not based on conspiracy theorizing — it’s based on risk-benefit calculations. You may think it’s an innumerate calculation. But when you look at patterns of uptake in the United States, two factors stand out, factors that are larger in their effect than partisanship: age and density. The older you are and the denser your community, the more likely you are to be vaccinated. The younger you are, and the more rural your community, the less likely you are to have gotten it. This reflects the real facts about the risk of death from COVID. People may be wildly overestimating their risk from the vaccine and underestimating their risks from COVID — but they have the directional thinking correct. Those who are in less danger, act like it.


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Mr Reynholm
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20 Jul 2021, 7:12 am

Excellent article. Thanks for posting!



kraftiekortie
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20 Jul 2021, 7:44 am

Well.....whoop-de-do!

Vaccines work. Over 1,000 deaths a day in the UK in January; 50 deaths a day (on a bad day) in July.

One can be "informed, scientific, and sophisticated"-----and still be dead wrong.



Mikah
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20 Jul 2021, 11:23 am

kraftiekortie wrote:
Well.....whoop-de-do!

Vaccines work. Over 1,000 deaths a day in the UK in January; 50 deaths a day (on a bad day) in July.

One can be "informed, scientific, and sophisticated"-----and still be dead wrong.


At the risk of going all informed, scientific and sophisticated on you kraftie, that may not be a causal relation. For one you're comparing summer to winter.


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20 Jul 2021, 11:32 am

My dad had a saying: There's no use being right when you're dead.


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Mr Reynholm
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20 Jul 2021, 12:43 pm

I don't think that is what the article is saying.
Its that the government and media are both encouraging us to shelve our critical thinking ability and just trust Them. Its a red flag for most people when anyone says "Just trust me and don't ask questions". Those who do ask questions are labeled and ridiculed making trust even less likely.



naturalplastic
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20 Jul 2021, 3:22 pm

Mikah wrote:
kraftiekortie wrote:
Well.....whoop-de-do!

Vaccines work. Over 1,000 deaths a day in the UK in January; 50 deaths a day (on a bad day) in July.

One can be "informed, scientific, and sophisticated"-----and still be dead wrong.


At the risk of going all informed, scientific and sophisticated on you kraftie, that may not be a causal relation. For one you're comparing summer to winter.


I hate to be all informed and blah blah, but when has summer ever stopped Covid in the temperate zone countries before? And the two worst countries right now (besides the US), are Brazil and India (both entirely within the tropics where its always summer), and the US after going down in the recent winter and spring is having a terrible resurgence of Covid right now, and it's midsummer, and the worst states within the US are all in the South. Florida especiallly is bad, and is especially south. So why would summer weather alone suddenly miraculously make Britain have 20 time less covid than the winter?



Mikah
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20 Jul 2021, 5:04 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
I hate to be all informed and blah blah, but when has summer ever stopped Covid in the temperate zone countries before? And the two worst countries right now (besides the US), are Brazil and India (both entirely within the tropics where its always summer), and the US after going down in the recent winter and spring is having a terrible resurgence of Covid right now, and it's midsummer, and the worst states within the US are all in the South. Florida especiallly is bad, and is especially south. So why would summer weather alone suddenly miraculously make Britain have 20 time less covid than the winter?


Seasonality is a well known phenomenon in virology, if not well studied. The exact mechanisms are not certain, nor how or if it applies to each Covid variant, but even alone it sprinkles reasonable doubt on the claim.


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Mikah
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20 Jul 2021, 5:10 pm

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03 ... l-covid-19

For more info if you are interested ^

Different diseases have different patterns. Some peak in early or late winter, others in spring, summer, or fall. Some diseases have different seasonal peaks depending on latitude. And many have no seasonal cycle at all. So no one knows whether SARS-CoV-2 will change its behavior come spring. “I would caution over-interpreting that hypothesis,” Nancy Messonnier, the point person for COVID-19 at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a press conference on 12 February. If the seasons do affect SARS-CoV-2, it also could defy that pattern in this first year and keep spreading, because humanity has not had a chance to build immunity to it.

Even for well-known seasonal diseases, it’s not clear why they wax and wane during the calendar year. “It’s an absolute swine of a field,” says Andrew Loudon, a chronobiologist at the University of Manchester. Investigating a hypothesis over several seasons can take 2 or 3 years. “Postdocs can only get one experiment done and it can be a career killer,” Loudon says. The field is also plagued by confounding variables. “All kinds of things are seasonal, like Christmas shopping,” says epidemiologist Scott Dowell, who heads vaccine development and surveillance at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and in 2001 wrote a widely cited perspective that inspired Martinez’s current study. And it’s easy to be misled by spurious correlations, Dowell says.

Despite the obstacles, researchers are testing a multitude of theories. Many focus on the relationships between the pathogen, the environment, and human behavior. Influenza, for example, might do better in winter because of factors such as humidity, temperature, people being closer together, or changes in diets and vitamin D levels. Martinez is studying another theory, which Dowell’s paper posited but didn’t test: The human immune system may change with the seasons, becoming more resistant or more susceptible to different infections based on how much light our bodies experience.


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naturalplastic
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20 Jul 2021, 5:26 pm

Mikah wrote:
naturalplastic wrote:
I hate to be all informed and blah blah, but when has summer ever stopped Covid in the temperate zone countries before? And the two worst countries right now (besides the US), are Brazil and India (both entirely within the tropics where its always summer), and the US after going down in the recent winter and spring is having a terrible resurgence of Covid right now, and it's midsummer, and the worst states within the US are all in the South. Florida especiallly is bad, and is especially south. So why would summer weather alone suddenly miraculously make Britain have 20 time less covid than the winter?


Seasonality is a well known phenomenon in virology, if not well studied. The exact mechanisms are not certain, nor how or if it applies to each Covid variant, but even alone it sprinkles reasonable doubt on the claim.


Cut out the comedy. you're the one making the claim - an extrordinary at that - without providing even ordinary evidence to back it up. The claim that the vaccines dont do anything.

Britain DID have a drop in new cases in the summer of 20, but it was five -to-one ratio. Not twenty-to-one.

And I already pointed out that the US is having a terrible resurgence right now -in mid summer. Ninety percent of new cases here in the US are among the nonvaccinated.

So where is your evidence that the vaccine is doing nothing? And where is your evidence that its all due to season?



Mikah
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20 Jul 2021, 5:47 pm

naturalplastic wrote:
Cut out the comedy. you're the one making the claim - an extrordinary at that - without providing even ordinary evidence to back it up. The claim that the vaccines dont do anything.

Britain DID have a drop in new cases in the summer of 20, but it was five -to-one ratio. Not twenty-to-one.

And I already pointed out that the US is having a terrible resurgence right now -in mid summer. Ninety percent of new cases here in the US are among the nonvaccinated.

So where is your evidence that the vaccine is doing nothing? And where is your evidence that its all due to season?


I made no such claim.


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21 Jul 2021, 6:03 am

Mikah wrote:
At the risk of going all informed, scientific and sophisticated on you kraftie, that may not be a causal relation. For one you're comparing summer to winter.


(in the US) Nearly all COVID deaths are currently among the unvaccinated



Mikah
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21 Jul 2021, 8:50 am

TenMinutes wrote:
Mikah wrote:
At the risk of going all informed, scientific and sophisticated on you kraftie, that may not be a causal relation. For one you're comparing summer to winter.


(in the US) Nearly all COVID deaths are currently among the unvaccinated


So I heard. I'm curious what the U.S. is doing differently, assuming the CDC isn't lying (again) for propaganda purposes. What little data there is available from other countries like the U.K., Israel and India is not quite so optimistic regarding the efficacy of the vaccines.


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Mr Reynholm
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22 Jul 2021, 2:39 pm

When science no longer requires evidence and no longer tolerates scrutiny. You don't have science you have dogma.