What todo when there is not enough information to decide?

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Technic1
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07 Sep 2021, 4:43 am

What do you do?



Oakling
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07 Sep 2021, 6:56 am

A lot of repetitive thinking and not much doing. Basically I get stuck.



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07 Sep 2021, 12:22 pm

I either disengage (If there isn't enough information, then I can't decide, so I am not going to try) or I try to overthink the situation.

Those aren't really helpful. I know enough from my experience that I know sometimes I do need to ask somebody else to help resolve the issue, especially if the matter is critical.



timf
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07 Sep 2021, 2:05 pm

1. Get more information.
2. Delay.
3. Approximate.
4. Experiment.



Fenn
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08 Sep 2021, 11:08 am

"Phone a friend"
sometimes if I am locked in a loop I really need another human being to help me to get out if it.
Last week I had to e-mail my boss and tell him I was stuck - not because I had run out of options - because I was generating too many. I used the term "down the rabbit hole".

Make a list:
What have I tried that has worked, and what have I tried that hasn't worked or that "troubles me" - and what could I do to address the trouble. Did this too last week. I came up with new options and got things working even before my boss got back to me.

Flip a coin:
My daughter got stuck in analysis paralysis trying to pick a college. She had narrowed it down to two options. She did all her research, asked for advice from trusted friends - written out advantages and disadvantages - all the tricks.
Finally she literally flipped a coin. Off the back porch. Her little brother ran out and retrieved it.
Then she "decided how she felt" about the rule of the coin. Then she decided.
For some things (smaller than picking a college) just "deciding to decide" and flipping a coin is OK.

Play the cards you have (there WILL be another hand)
I also find it helps me to shrink the scope - is the thing I am trying to decide on something that I can "decide for now" like what to have for lunch - if I don't like it I can have something different tomorrow. Which road to take - I can always take another turn down the road a piece. Take a job - if I REALLY don't like it I can go get a new job after a year or two (so my resume won't look like crap). Send an e-mail - If I say something stupid I can apologize - or I can say "I have changed my mind". In a lot of situations you can play the cards you have and be assured there WILL be another hand.

Get stuck
If I am really in robo-lock it may simply come down to time - I will get tired eventually - even if I am up all night, I probably can catch up on my sleep later that week. If I am reading a book - the end of the book (or chapter) will come eventually. Doing a sudoku puzzle - I always solve them eventually. I sometimes wish getting out of robo-lock didn't last so long, but sometimes I just have to wait for the spell to pass, then make plans to do better next time (start a short story, pick a "medium suduku" instead of a "hard" one, and so on). I try my other tricks first. Or at least I TRY to try them.

Also Google
thought stopping


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Last edited by Fenn on 08 Sep 2021, 12:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Fenn
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08 Sep 2021, 11:12 am

Another one:

Three Options and A Recommendation:
Do your homework, do your research, come up with Three options - then decide which one you think is best and which you recommend".
The show it to someone you trust, or your boss or "the decider" and see if they agree with your recommendation.
If not, you can pick one of the other two.
If they agree go with your recommendation.


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Edna3362
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08 Sep 2021, 11:20 am

It varies. In specific order;

IF there is a time and place for it...
Inquire more info. Experiment a bit.
Relax or take a hint or two elsewhere.
Do something else if there's something else to do while at it.

If there's no time or place for that...
Gamble it -- better doing something in random than nothing anyway.
Leave if it really cannot helped it or that it's actually risky to actually try without care.


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08 Sep 2021, 11:40 am

1. Set a deadline for a decision.

2. Determine two or more courses of action that could work, based on current knowledge.

3. Decide on ONE course of action at or before the deadline, and act on it.

4. Once the decision is made, follow through proactively to the end without hesitation, dithering, or changing plans.

5. If mistakes are made, own them without making excuses.

Simple, eh?


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08 Sep 2021, 12:18 pm

Does anything have to be done? If not, do nothing!

If something has to be done, does it have to be done now? If you can wait then you can wait for (or seek) more information.

If something has to be done now, is it possible to quickly obtain more information? If you can quickly get more information then some of the new information might be helpful.

If something has to be done now and you cannot get good information, do you have enough information to help you select which actions are most likely to be appropriate--or to rule out actions most likely to be inappropriate? When working with incomplete information you have to make the best possible use of the information you have.

If all else fails, cross your fingers, do something that might be right, and hope for the best. Try to keep your options open so you can change your mind if your choice isn't working, and pay attention so you know if you need to stop what you are doing.


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09 Sep 2021, 12:17 am

Technic1 wrote:
What do you do?

If I have tried the paper listing of pros and cons, and just don't have enough to go on, nor time to gather more, I flip a coin. However, I don't necessarily obey it. As soon as I see the result, I observe if it makes me happy or sad, and go by that.



Fenn
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09 Sep 2021, 6:57 pm

One thing that reminds me that "in some situations you don't have enough information because there ISN'T enough information" is doing the most advanced Sudoku puzzles. Some call these "Diabolical" and they real key to solving these is recognizing when you HAVE TO GUESS. The sooner you realize that you DO have to guess the sooner you will solve the puzzle.

You will need to guess because it is the only way to GET MORE INFORMATION.

If your guess leads you to a complete solution, then you guessed right.

If you guess leads you to a contradiction, then you know your guess was wrong and you have to guess again - but now you KNOW the original guess is wrong so NOW YOU HAVE MORE INFORMATION.

Sometimes I do these super hard Sudoku puzzles (usually the last ones in the book) on purpose to remind me not to get stuck in analysis paralysis.

Not only is OK to guess with these puzzles - IT IS THE ONLY WAY TO PROCEED.

Life Lesson - there REALLY ARE situations where it is not only OK but - the best way - to guess.


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