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Axeman
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22 Sep 2021, 9:36 pm

In twenty years when the Boomers are fertilizer the Republicans will lose their stable base and become ineffective on the national stage, unable to win majorities in Congress or the Presidency. Migrants from Mexico will turn Arizona and Texas into Blue states sealing this fate. The plan of the GOP short term is simple. Keep Texas in their camp as long as possible. In the long term they will try to shift their base into the Midwest by appealing to it's largely white rural areas. This won't do it for them because they won't win the cities like Chicago and Detroit.



naturalplastic
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22 Sep 2021, 10:48 pm

When I...a baby boomer...am..."fertilizer"?

There is a way to put things, and then there is a way to put things. :lol:

But putting that aside...

Yes...back in Sixteen, when the GOP fielded candidates like Rubio, I figured that the GOP would angle to get the Hispanic vote. On the american chessboard - the GOP could balance out the fact that the Dems "own" the Black vote, by owning the Hispanic vote. And one could envision them achieving that. Hispanics tend to have GOP values like entrepreneurship, and religiosity. One could imagine Hispanic Catholics allying with White Anglosaxon Evangelical Protestants to bolster the GOP. As Reagan said back in the day "most Hispanics are Republican. They just dont know it yet".

But in Sixteen both parties had surprise populist uprisings. Sanders almost overturned the Dem establishment, and Trump succeeded in overturning the GOP establishment. But Trump's winning populism was xenophobic, nativists, and outright racist. So my vision of a multihued Hispanic flavored GOP isnt gonna happen any time soon. Counter to my expectations they arent trying to cast a wider net to catch more voters. They opted to surpress voters.

Now that the GOP elite has made its deal with the devil by embracing Trumpism -its painted itself into the corner of nativism (if not outright racism). And (as you say) the demographic trends of generation and of ethnicity are running against them. So to stay in power the GOP has no choice but to rely on (a) voter suppression, and (b) stopping immigration.



Axeman
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23 Sep 2021, 5:49 am

naturalplastic wrote:
When I...a baby boomer...am..."fertilizer"?

There is a way to put things, and then there is a way to put things. :lol:

But putting that aside...

Yes...back in Sixteen, when the GOP fielded candidates like Rubio, I figured that the GOP would angle to get the Hispanic vote. On the american chessboard - the GOP could balance out the fact that the Dems "own" the Black vote, by owning the Hispanic vote. And one could envision them achieving that. Hispanics tend to have GOP values like entrepreneurship, and religiosity. One could imagine Hispanic Catholics allying with White Anglosaxon Evangelical Protestants to bolster the GOP. As Reagan said back in the day "most Hispanics are Republican. They just dont know it yet".

But in Sixteen both parties had surprise populist uprisings. Sanders almost overturned the Dem establishment, and Trump succeeded in overturning the GOP establishment. But Trump's winning populism was xenophobic, nativists, and outright racist. So my vision of a multihued Hispanic flavored GOP isnt gonna happen any time soon. Counter to my expectations they arent trying to cast a wider net to catch more voters. They opted to surpress voters.

Now that the GOP elite has made its deal with the devil by embracing Trumpism -its painted itself into the corner of nativism (if not outright racism). And (as you say) the demographic trends of generation and of ethnicity are running against them. So to stay in power the GOP has no choice but to rely on (a) voter suppression, and (b) stopping immigration.


What you say of Hispanics also describes blacks, namely they tend to be religious and social conservatives. They do not generally favor such things as gay rights, gender equality, etc.

Before Trump the GOP was coming to the realization that to stay relevant they would have to take a hard look at themselves. Then came Trump who believed they could squeeze out a few more victories by appeal to racist whites. It worked only once.



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23 Sep 2021, 7:43 am

They said the same things in the UK about both the Labour Party and Conservatives over the last 35 years.

One party wins big and the other looks like it’s demographic support group is in decline.

Never works that way. Governments annoy people and become useless and corrupt appealing to an alternative.

The alternative in this case is nearly always the last party to gain power that has just appointed a charismatic leader that says he / she intends to change things.

So the US will be remain a two horse race for a long time.


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TheRobotLives
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23 Sep 2021, 10:34 am

Democrat party is a pro-business conservative party.

With globalization, maybe no party can support local labor, because they know it's futile.

We cannot compete with third world laborers/lower costs.


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23 Sep 2021, 10:44 am

I'm a late boomer and will be 79 in 20 years. You're math is a bit off. I could live well into my 90s.


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Axeman
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23 Sep 2021, 10:52 am

VegetableMan wrote:
I'm a late boomer and will be 79 in 20 years. You're math is a bit off. I could live well into my 90s.


You could but probably won't. Men live to about 72 on average.



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23 Sep 2021, 11:07 am

Axeman wrote:
VegetableMan wrote:
I'm a late boomer and will be 79 in 20 years. You're math is a bit off. I could live well into my 90s.


You could but probably won't. Men live to about 72 on average.


I have longevity in my family. My Uncle is 94 and only stopped driving last year.


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Mr Reynholm
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23 Sep 2021, 11:46 am

You think the United States will exist in twenty years?
Thats pretty optimistic.



Axeman
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23 Sep 2021, 2:27 pm

Mr Reynholm wrote:
You think the United States will exist in twenty years?
Thats pretty optimistic.


As long as we steer clear of guys like Trump sure.



Bataar
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23 Sep 2021, 2:44 pm

Mr Reynholm wrote:
You think the United States will exist in twenty years?
Thats pretty optimistic.

It won't exist if people keep pushing for more communism. Biden is already pushing his status as dictator.



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23 Sep 2021, 2:58 pm

Bataar wrote:
Mr Reynholm wrote:
You think the United States will exist in twenty years?
Thats pretty optimistic.

It won't exist if people keep pushing for more communism. Biden is already pushing his status as dictator.


The Dems aren't commies not by a long shot.



shlaifu
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23 Sep 2021, 8:32 pm

Bataar wrote:
Mr Reynholm wrote:
You think the United States will exist in twenty years?
Thats pretty optimistic.

It won't exist if people keep pushing for more communism. Biden is already pushing his status as dictator.


hahahaha. I'm European, living in a country that was half communist until 1990.
The US right now needs a handfull of communist uprisings to reach a "center". for 40 years it's been going further and further in the direction of neoliberalism, to the point where anyrhing moderately social already looks socialist - because you're so far away from that, you can't even tell how far health care reform and gulags are actually apart.
they lie in the same direction, from your vantage point, though, I give you that.
But to use a geographical metaphor, from your vantage point, Britain, Germany, Russia and Japan are in the same direction. They're not the same, though.


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old_comedywriter
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23 Sep 2021, 8:54 pm

Axeman wrote:
In twenty years when the Boomers are fertilizer...

So you think Boomers are the "problem" ? I know way more Generation XYZ kids that are the "problem." There are plenty of "neo-nutters" out there. This will not be fixed in my lifetime thanks to these nutters who ignore facts, science, and reason in favor of politics that have become their religion.


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Axeman
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23 Sep 2021, 9:04 pm

old_comedywriter wrote:
Axeman wrote:
In twenty years when the Boomers are fertilizer...

So you think Boomers are the "problem" ? I know way more Generation XYZ kids that are the "problem." There are plenty of "neo-nutters" out there. This will not be fixed in my lifetime thanks to these nutters who ignore facts, science, and reason in favor of politics that have become their religion.


Where did I say Boomers were a problem? If you are 60 today you will probably be dead in 20 years that's a fact. I don't view the Democratic take over of this nation as a good thing. I think Trump sucked but that the party isn't just people like him. Americans are too extreme on both sides so moderation is needed. But I do think it will happen for stated reasons



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24 Sep 2021, 3:27 am

Mr Reynholm wrote:
You think the United States will exist in twenty years?
Thats pretty optimistic.


Ouch.

I admit to having been pretty scared over the last 5 years, but I still believe in us. Our guardrails have held through some pretty rough attempts to blast through them. At my age I've seen a lot. And, well, apparently we've actually seen bad things in our relatively short history yet somehow we hold on.

I do not believe we are likely to continue as the dominate world power, however.


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