Poll suggests Dems in big trouble

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Republican congressional candidates hold their largest lead in midterm election vote preferences in ABC News/Washington Post polls dating back 40 years, underscoring profound challenges for Democrats hoping to retain their slim majorities in Congress next year.

While a year is a lifetime in politics, the Democratic Party’s difficulties are deep; they include soaring economic discontent, a president who’s fallen 12 percentage points under water in job approval and a broad sense that the party is out of touch with the concerns of most Americans; 62 percent say so.

About as many people see the Republican Party as out of touch (58 percent), and there’s some solace for Democrats in other results. Notably, Joe Biden’s keystone policy initiatives are far more popular than he is, with 63 percent support for the $1 trillion infrastructure bill passed by Congress and 58 percent support for the now-nearly $2 trillion social spending bill still under debate.

Yet, with the infrastructure bill secured, Biden gets little credit in this poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates.

As things stand, if the midterm elections were today, 51 percent of registered voters say they’d support the Republican candidate in their congressional district, 41 percent the Democrat. That’s the biggest lead for the Republicans in 110 ABC/Post polls to ask this question since November 1981. Indeed, it’s only the second time the GOP has held a statistically significant advantage (the other was +7 points in January 2002) and the ninth time it’s held any numerical edge at all.

Among key factors is the economy: With inflation soaring, 70 percent say it’s in bad shape, up from 58 percent last spring. While just half blame Biden directly for inflation – its worst in 31 years – his approval for handling the economy overall is down to 39 percent, off 6 points just since early September and 13 points from last spring.
Fifty-five percent instead now disapprove of Biden’s economic performance – 6 points more than Donald Trump’s highest disapproval rating on the economy, in September 2017. Just more than a year later, Trump’s Republicans lost 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms.

In terms of Biden’s job performance overall, a new low of 41 percent approve, while 53 percent disapprove – highly similar to his rating on the economy. Biden’s lost 11 points in approval since spring, accelerating with the coronavirus Delta surge and continuing with inflation.

Biden’s overall approval rating sets or matches career lows among nearly all demographic groups, with positive assessments among most down significantly from their peaks in the spring or summer. The exception is those who already were highly critical of the president, such as Republicans, conservatives and rural residents.

It’s notable that Biden gets just 35 percent approval from independents – while 63 percent of independents support the infrastructure bill and 58 percent support the $2 trillion climate change and social policy package.

Even with the GOP advantages in this poll, results on a hot-button issue in the Nov. 2 gubernatorial election in Virginia, education, are nuanced. On one hand, a plurality, 48 percent, says parents should have “a lot” of say in what schools teach their children (as opposed to some, not much or none), and this group tilts heavily Republican. It’s a view credited as a galvanizing issue for the winner in Virginia, Republican Glenn Youngkin.

On the other hand, a broad 70 percent of Americans say public schools should teach a great deal or good amount about how the history of racism affects the country today – an approach criticized by Youngkin and many Republican officeholders generally.

The 2022 vote question asks about generic Democratic or Republican candidate preferences for the U.S. House of Representatives. Also of interest is control of the closely divided U.S. Senate. Evaluating survey results in just eight states expected to have the most competitive Senate races – four currently held by Democrats, four by Republicans – raises further hope for the GOP and risk for the Democratic Party.

In these states – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – Biden’s overall job approval rating is 33 percent, compared with 43 percent elsewhere.

Differences in congressional vote preferences show the current state of play in likely 2022 battleground groups, with substantial improvements for Republicans compared with 2018.

Demonstrating the role of the economy, those who say it’s in excellent or good shape favor Democratic candidates by 75-19 percent. But among the broad majority who say it’s in worse shape than that – not so good or poor – Republican candidates are favored, 63-28 percent.

Republican advantages in two core groups – non-college-educated white men and women, are more than 20 points broader now than in 2018. And another heartening result for Republicans is among Hispanics: They favor Democrats, but by just a 15-point margin, 49-34 percent. (This result is among all Hispanics, not just those registered to vote, for an adequate sample size. All other vote-preference results are among registered voters.) That compares to the last midterms in 2018, when, according to exit poll results, Hispanics voted Democratic by a 40-point margin