Page 8 of 18 [ 280 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 ... 18  Next

Pepe
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 11 Jun 2013
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 26,635
Location: Australia

29 Nov 2021, 2:39 pm

magz wrote:
Nades wrote:
I hope the virus gets milder and more contagious.
That's the trajectory I ultimately expect - but I have no idea how much time it would take naturally. I would guess decades.
Vaccines speed up the "milder" part of it.


I hope the pharmaceutical companies don't invest research into altering the virus to make it more deadly.
Their profit margins will be damaged with the mild version, after all.
Best not to talk about it for fear of giving them ideas. Shhhhh! 8O



Pepe
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 11 Jun 2013
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 26,635
Location: Australia

29 Nov 2021, 2:42 pm

magz wrote:
Nades wrote:
If what they say is true and this new strain came from someone with AIDS
I'm encountering this for the first time.
So far, I only read speculations that so many mutations likely happened in one person infected for much longer time than normally - for whatever reason.


I think the speculation is "drawing a long bow". 8)



magz
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator

User avatar

Joined: 1 Jun 2017
Age: 39
Gender: Female
Posts: 16,283
Location: Poland

29 Nov 2021, 2:48 pm

Image

How is this supposed to disprove what Kraftie said? Vaccines don't make you immortal.
This is UK vaccination rate:
Image
Let's see the oldest group: 70+ group has about 95% uptake.
That means there are 20 times more vaccinated people than not.
20:1
But in the >80 group, the proportion of those who died is 1209:143, which is about
8.5:1 - over twice less and keep in mind this group is most likely to die for any reason.
In the 70-79 group, it's 612:101 which means
6:1 - over three times lower chance.

In younger cohorts, where the vaccination rate is lower, it's even clearer: the group 50-59 has over 85% vaccination rate but almost the same number of deaths in non-vaxed and vaxed. That means you are over 5.6 times more likely to die when you're not vaccinated.

And it doesn't take into account that the most ill people get the shot first, nor that many anti-vaxers don't get tested.


_________________
Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.

<not moderating PPR stuff concerning East Europe>


Pepe
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 11 Jun 2013
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 26,635
Location: Australia

29 Nov 2021, 2:54 pm

ezbzbfcg2 wrote:

I can see all kinds of confusion: "I had my two shots and booster and have my PAPERS!"..."Yeah, but you don't have the special OMNICRON sticker, so this place is off-limits to you!"




magz
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator

User avatar

Joined: 1 Jun 2017
Age: 39
Gender: Female
Posts: 16,283
Location: Poland

29 Nov 2021, 2:58 pm

For those who don't bother with my Math above:
If everyone got vaccinated, only vaccinated people would die.
When (as in UK) the above is close to truth among vulnerable groups, mostly vaccinated people die - because there aren't enough unvaccinated vulnerable people around to also die.


_________________
Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.

<not moderating PPR stuff concerning East Europe>


Fnord
Veteran
Veteran

User avatar

Joined: 6 May 2008
Age: 66
Gender: Male
Posts: 59,726
Location: Stendec

29 Nov 2021, 2:59 pm

Nades wrote:
Fnord wrote:
It is almost as if certain people are trying to defend the non-existent "right" of the coronavirus to exist...

Image
COVID IS BEING CANCELLED!!

:roll:
Viruses like this never have a right to exist. It's just that trying to eliminate it is virtually impossible but governments around the world along with the general public appear to be attempting it. Alchemy and perpetual motion machines seem more feasible than eradicating or even controlling Covid.
Eradication of covid is the ideal case; but dealing with it as an endemic virus (like influenza) is more likely.

If only people would get it out of their heads that this is a political issue.
  I blame Trump!



Pepe
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 11 Jun 2013
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 26,635
Location: Australia

29 Nov 2021, 3:00 pm

Nades wrote:
magz wrote:
Nades wrote:
If what they say is true and this new strain came from someone with AIDS
I'm encountering this for the first time.
So far, I only read speculations that so many mutations likely happened in one person infected for much longer time than normally - for whatever reason.


Scientists think this individual had HIV/AIDS and was likely unvaccinated.


"Correlation does not imply causation." 8)



Nades
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 8 Jan 2017
Age: 1933
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,768
Location: wales

29 Nov 2021, 3:04 pm

Pepe wrote:
ezbzbfcg2 wrote:

I can see all kinds of confusion: "I had my two shots and booster and have my PAPERS!"..."Yeah, but you don't have the special OMNICRON sticker, so this place is off-limits to you!"




I was asked for my papers yesterday. Apparently you need a Covid vaccine pass to go to the cinema now in the UK. To add insult to injury I watched the "Eternals" which was which was like drilling onto your own face with a blunt Dremel.



Nades
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 8 Jan 2017
Age: 1933
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,768
Location: wales

29 Nov 2021, 3:05 pm

Pepe wrote:
Nades wrote:
magz wrote:
Nades wrote:
If what they say is true and this new strain came from someone with AIDS
I'm encountering this for the first time.
So far, I only read speculations that so many mutations likely happened in one person infected for much longer time than normally - for whatever reason.


Scientists think this individual had HIV/AIDS and was likely unvaccinated.


"Correlation does not imply causation." 8)


Not my correlation, just the scientists who have been investigating it. They can only take a very well educated guess so the HIV patient hypothesis is the most likely so far.



magz
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator

User avatar

Joined: 1 Jun 2017
Age: 39
Gender: Female
Posts: 16,283
Location: Poland

29 Nov 2021, 3:06 pm

To see how massive vaccinations in UK work, I recommend this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

After the summer low, people got vaccinated and restrictions were mostly removed.
New cases run wild, new deaths are way lowered compared to the previous waves - but still numerous. Roughly 1/10 of what would be expected based on previous waves.

Compare it to, say, Ukraine - where mass vaccination can't be afforded like in UK: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/ukraine/
New wave, even more deaths than in the previous ones.

Vaccines do work but don't do miracles.


_________________
Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.

<not moderating PPR stuff concerning East Europe>


Pepe
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 11 Jun 2013
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 26,635
Location: Australia

29 Nov 2021, 3:06 pm

Nades wrote:
Fnord wrote:
It is almost as if certain people are trying to defend the non-existent "right" of the coronavirus to exist...
Image
COVID IS BEING CANCELLED!!

:roll:


Viruses like this never have a right to exist. It's just that trying to eliminate it is virtually impossible but governments around the world along with the general public appear to be attempting it. Alchemy and perpetual motion machines seem more feasible than eradicating or even controlling Covid.


Don't tell us.
Tell fauci. 8)



Pepe
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 11 Jun 2013
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 26,635
Location: Australia

29 Nov 2021, 3:10 pm

kraftiekortie wrote:
I agree that, ultimately, variants will become milder, like most coronaviruses. Hopefully, the Omicron variant will prove to be relatively mild.

Still, the present-day Delta variant causes considerable death and hospitalizations, especially in the unvaccinated. COVID is still acting like a “novel” virus.


People are suggesting Omicron might muscle out Delta, partly because it is more infectious and partly because it might be milder.

Share market recovering, btw. 8)



magz
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator

User avatar

Joined: 1 Jun 2017
Age: 39
Gender: Female
Posts: 16,283
Location: Poland

29 Nov 2021, 3:12 pm

Pepe wrote:
Share market recovering, btw. 8)

Yeah, we watch it, too. We have some money there.


_________________
Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.

<not moderating PPR stuff concerning East Europe>


Pepe
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 11 Jun 2013
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 26,635
Location: Australia

29 Nov 2021, 3:13 pm

magz wrote:
Nades wrote:
magz wrote:
Nades wrote:
Scientists think this individual had HIV/AIDS and was likely unvaccinated.

Source?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... v-patient/

Thanks. The scientists call in "speculative" and it looks like it's one of the suspected possibilities, the other being simply gaps in sequencing intermediate forms of the virus.

Anyway, we're living with globally spilled milk. Closing borders won't help with Omicron, it's already in UK and Schengen. The question is, is it really milder than Delta?
Here, hospital workers claim Delta is more dangerous to younger people, children and pregnant women than either the original strain or Alpha. So, the evolution towards milder form is not obvious and, even if real, probably much slower than towards easier spread.

We're living in unpredictable times and nothing can be really done about it.


Locking up fauci *might* mitigate the situation.
We don't need additional GoF viruses. 8)



magz
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator

User avatar

Joined: 1 Jun 2017
Age: 39
Gender: Female
Posts: 16,283
Location: Poland

29 Nov 2021, 3:18 pm

Pepe wrote:
Locking up fauci *might* mitigate the situation.
No way. No matter what happened at the beginning, once in the wild, only the laws of Nature matter.
And emidemology of something new, without heavy lockdowns, is always full of unknowns.


_________________
Let's not confuse being normal with being mentally healthy.

<not moderating PPR stuff concerning East Europe>


Pepe
Veteran
Veteran

Joined: 11 Jun 2013
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 26,635
Location: Australia

29 Nov 2021, 3:24 pm

magz wrote:
For those who don't bother with my Math above:
If everyone got vaccinated, only vaccinated people would die.
When (as in UK) the above is close to truth among vulnerable groups, mostly vaccinated people die - because there aren't enough unvaccinated vulnerable people around to also die.


I nominate magz to be the predominant maths scientist on this website.
Listen to the science magz. 8)