Ukraine: The Most Dangerous Problem in the World

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ASPartOfMe
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22 Jan 2022, 9:19 am

The Nation

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Amid the public storm in America over the fall of Kabul, it is important not to lose sight of other looming crises around the world—some of them potentially much more dangerous than Afghanistan. For if the US political elites were so surprised by the speed of the Afghan state’s collapse, that was largely because the US media stopped paying attention to developments on the ground in Afghanistan once most US forces withdrew and Americans stopped dying there in large numbers.

Of these potential crises, one of the most menacing is the armed standoff between the Ukrainian military and Russian-supported separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. Limited numbers of Russian troops (lightly disguised as “volunteers”) are stationed in the Donbas region, and Russia has deployed large forces in southern Russia to defend the territory against any new Ukrainian offensive. However, Russia has not annexed Donetsk and Luhansk (the two Ukrainian provinces that make up the Donbas) or recognized their independence.

Since the Ukrainian revolution and the Donbas rebellion of 2014, successive Ukrainian governments have vowed to recover the Donbas—by force if necessary. Despite a ceasefire in 2015 that suspended full-scale war, probing attacks and retaliations by both sides have led to repeated clashes, as in March and April of this year. Successive US administrations have expressed strong support for the Ukrainian side and for future NATO membership (so far blocked by Germany and France), though they have stopped short of promising to defend Ukraine militarily.

The Taliban victory may create a new and perilous dynamic. America’s defeat in Afghanistan could lead Russia (and China) to act more recklessly, just as America’s defeat in Vietnam emboldened the ambitions of the USSR in Africa and Central America. On the other hand, the political humiliation suffered by the Biden administration could lead it to try to recover its domestic and international prestige by responding recklessly to Russian actions.

Only the most insane of US politicians and commentators actually want to go to war with Russia in Ukraine. But as the outbreak of World War I demonstrated, leaders who do not intend to go to war may stumble into a situation in which they are unable to stop or turn back.

The consequences of a direct US-Russian clash in Ukraine would be catastrophic. A full-scale conventional war would have the strong potential to escalate into nuclear war and the annihilation of most of humanity. Even a limited war would cause a ruinous global economic crisis, necessitate the dispatch of huge US armed forces to Europe, and destroy for the foreseeable future any chance of serious action against climate change. China might well seize the chance to conquer Taiwan, leaving the United States to face a war with the world’s other two greatest military powers simultaneously. Finally, given the huge superiority of Russia’s armed forces over Ukraine’s, the very limited number of US forces in Europe, and the deep unwillingness of European countries to confront Russia militarily, the strong likelihood is that Russia would win a limited war in Ukraine, seizing much more Ukrainian territory and imposing a shattering humiliation on the US and the West.

Yet perhaps the most tragic aspect of the seemingly unending Donbas dispute is that, while it may be one of the most dangerous crises in the world today, it is also in principle the most easily solved. A solution exists that was drawn up by France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine and endorsed by the US, the European Union, and the United Nations. This solution corresponds to democratic practice, international law and tradition, and America’s own past approach to the settlement of

ethnic and separatist conflicts. Moreover, it requires no concessions of real substance by either Ukraine or the US.

The depth of Russia’s commitment to this solution would of course have to be carefully tested in practice; but if US administrations, the political establishment, and the mainstream media have quietly buried it, this is because of the refusal of Ukrainian governments to implement the solution and the refusal of the United States to put pressure on them to do so.

This solution to the Donbas dispute lies in the “Minsk II” agreement, reached in February 2015 by the leaders of France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine meeting under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The key military element of Minsk II is the disarmament of the separatists and the withdrawal of Russian “volunteer” forces, together with a vaguely worded suggestion for the temporary removal the Ukrainian armed forces (exclusive of border guards). The key political element consists of three essential and mutually dependent parts: demilitarization; a restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty, including control of the border with Russia; and full autonomy for the Donbas in the context of the decentralization of power in Ukraine as a whole.

The United States ought to promote the following main terms for a settlement:

§ A Ukrainian constitutional amendment establishing the Donbas region as an autonomous republic within Ukraine (including those parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces currently controlled by Ukraine); and

§ A constitution for the Donbas Autonomous Republic (including its constitutional relationship with Ukrainian national institutions in Kiev) to be submitted to the people of Donetsk and Luhansk in a referendum supervised and monitored by the UN and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

If a majority of voters in the Donbas oppose the constitutional amendment, then they will have chosen to remain within Ukraine under its present unitary constitution. But in the likely event of approval in the referendum, the amendment would then be submitted to the Ukrainian parliament. If the parliament rejected it, a new internationally supervised referendum would be held giving the people of the region a straight choice between rejoining a unitary Ukraine and becoming independent, with a future option to join the Russian Federation.


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Dillogic
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24 Jan 2022, 4:05 am

There won't be a political solution beforehand, rather just how much, if any, Russia wants of Ukraine, and beyond. Which determines a Western/Eastern Ukraine deal to eventual strategic weapon release. China would have no real reason not to go into Taiwan depending on the magnitude of any NATO/Ukraine and Russia fight.

The warning signs to watch out for are:

If NATO directly engages Russia if they go into Ukraine, or Russia crosses beyond Ukraine if NATO does nothing, that'll be the time to tell your loved ones you love them, because tactical nuclear release will happen far sooner than people realize, then strategic.



naturalplastic
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24 Jan 2022, 4:21 am

Yes. Its a little too much like that those chapters in the history books about both 1914, and 1939, for comfort.



Mountain Goat
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24 Jan 2022, 6:03 am

Dillogic wrote:
There won't be a political solution beforehand, rather just how much, if any, Russia wants of Ukraine, and beyond. Which determines a Western/Eastern Ukraine deal to eventual strategic weapon release. China would have no real reason not to go into Taiwan depending on the magnitude of any NATO/Ukraine and Russia fight.

The warning signs to watch out for are:

If NATO directly engages Russia if they go into Ukraine, or Russia crosses beyond Ukraine if NATO does nothing, that'll be the time to tell your loved ones you love them, because tactical nuclear release will happen far sooner than people realize, then strategic.



The whole reason why Russia has a hundred thousand troops on the boarder is that Nato already is in Ukrane and has for years set up its missile bases pointing towards Russia. They promised Russia that when Russia gave up Ukrane that they would not do this and signed an agreement saying this.

I bet you guys are glad that you are not part of Nato! Trump did a good thing to get you out as Russia are serious and who can blame them? For Russia it is no joke. Their lives are at stake here!


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carlos55
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24 Jan 2022, 8:02 am

It’s just a domination game between west and China for control of Eurasia.

Russia is China’s most important ally and by dominating Russia they stop China.

Unfortunately it’s already too late for that as Russia has moved permanently onto China’s side and no matter how much pressure they put on the country they are not moving.

Russia has a pop of approx 145 million and is not going to invade and occupy the whole of Ukraine that would bankrupt them.

In fact the most open secret in Russia is the reason why Russia is rich and USSR was poor was because the USSR had to subsidize the poorer states. Most Russians know this certainly Putin which is why most would be against trying to create a new USSR.

The reason you don’t hear that is out of respect for the millions who died fighting for the USSR in WW2 and Putin would loose support from his potential supporters in remote villages and mining towns that fondly remember the good old days before their town died when all the young people left to find work.

So it’s something that’s known but deliberately not mentioned.

Most likely scenario Ukraine launches an attack on rebel enclave in E Ukraine and Russia responds with massive conventional missile strike wiping out Ukraine’s army maybe advancing a few miles west into the country taking the areas with majority Russian population for these rebels and leaving it at that.

The US has already lost - the whole Russia Russia Russia, Putin’s going to eat your lunch, reds under the bed BS won’t change anything and looks from a distance like a form of mental illness.

Bit like those that blame the Jews for everything you quickly realize there is something mentally wrong with them, a kind of paranoia- that’s how the west looks today to the rest of the world.


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Last edited by carlos55 on 24 Jan 2022, 8:06 am, edited 1 time in total.

Fireblossom
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24 Jan 2022, 8:03 am

Mountain Goat wrote:
I bet you guys are glad that you are not part of Nato! Trump did a good thing to get you out as Russia are serious and who can blame them? For Russia it is no joke. Their lives are at stake here!


Which "you guys?" USA is a part of Nato... where are you guys from again, naturalplastic and Dillogic?



Mountain Goat
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24 Jan 2022, 8:14 am

Fireblossom wrote:
Mountain Goat wrote:
I bet you guys are glad that you are not part of Nato! Trump did a good thing to get you out as Russia are serious and who can blame them? For Russia it is no joke. Their lives are at stake here!


Which "you guys?" USA is a part of Nato... where are you guys from again, naturalplastic and Dillogic?


Donald Trump got you out of Nato. Unfortunately we are part of Nato in the UK.


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Fireblossom
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25 Jan 2022, 10:16 am

Mountain Goat wrote:
Fireblossom wrote:
Mountain Goat wrote:
I bet you guys are glad that you are not part of Nato! Trump did a good thing to get you out as Russia are serious and who can blame them? For Russia it is no joke. Their lives are at stake here!


Which "you guys?" USA is a part of Nato... where are you guys from again, naturalplastic and Dillogic?


Donald Trump got you out of Nato. Unfortunately we are part of Nato in the UK.


He did not. He supported leaving it, but it hasn't actually happened. The congress didn't approve.

And BTW, I'm not American.