Sen. Kyrsten Sinema censured by Arizona Democratic Party
Kraichgauer
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24 Jan 2022, 2:54 pm
Tim_Tex wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Dox47 wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Sinema had ridden in to victory running as a progressive (as odd as that might seem in her state), so being against voting rights and the infrastructure bill, as well as being opposed to raising taxes on the rich for social spending isn't sitting well with the people who put her into office.
I seriously can't see Democrats supporting her for a Presidential run just for those stances she's taken. There's nothing centrist about supporting voter suppression, and she should know that.
I seriously can't see Democrats supporting her for a Presidential run just for those stances she's taken. There's nothing centrist about supporting voter suppression, and she should know that.
I don't think you realize that none of that is important vs winning, if they think she's their best chance to win, they'll run her and forgive all of her heresies, it's how this works. Do you seriously think that if 2024 rolls around and the choice is between Trump 2.0 and Kyrsten Sinema, Democrats are going to say "you know what, we just can't give her our votes after what she did in 2021-22, we're staying home"? Would you?
More currently, do you really not see the danger in screwing with the filibuster with your party poised for an electoral shellacking of historic proportions? That whatever they passed without the 60 vote threshold, the GOP would simply roll back in 2024, and then take their revenge? McConnell famously warned Harry Reid in 2013 that he would regret eliminating the judicial filibuster, and sooner than he expected, and then went on to fulfill that promise with a vengeance, and he's making the same promise again with the legislative filibuster. Like I said, this is like putting a loaded gun to your own head and hoping the other guy doesn't pull the trigger, when the other guy has a long history of trigger pulling that should make you very nervous.
Sinema aint gonna get anywhere near the Democratic nomination in order to run against Trump. And it's precisely her stances she's been taking that have sealed her fate.
Who do you think will get the nom for the Dems? I think it will be Biden or Harris, but I would like to see Inslee or Klobuchar make another run.
As for the GOP, it remains to be seen. I hope it’s Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger or Larry Hogan.
Right now, I'm thinking it'll be Biden and Harris. As every sitting President who's been challenged within his own party has lost the Presidential election, I certainly hope the Dems won't be that stupid.
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-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
24 Jan 2022, 6:46 pm
Kraichgauer wrote:
Sinema aint gonna get anywhere near the Democratic nomination in order to run against Trump. And it's precisely her stances she's been taking that have sealed her fate.
I'm not so sure, Biden ran on the promise of a return to normalcy, and has failed to deliver in a spectacular was thus far, pandering to the loud but unpopular progressive wing, bungling the Afghan withdrawal, flailing on covid and inflation when he's not trying to gaslight the electorate about the latter, etc, a straight down the middle centrist with a record of standing up to her own party might look mighty appealing in 2024. If Biden is still alive in 2024 and the polls show him going down in flames against Trump or his next analogue, the party may well go looking for another horse to run, and as I've mentioned, the cupboard looks pretty bare from here.
_________________
“The totally convinced and the totally stupid have too much in common for the resemblance to be accidental.”
-- Robert Anton Wilson
24 Jan 2022, 6:56 pm
funeralxempire wrote:
For all the claims that she's likely to be embraced by right-wing voters, that doesn't seem too likely. Have they embraced any other DINOs, or would most DINOs be considered RINOs if they became Republicans?
She isn't liked by lefty voters, she isn't likely by right-wing voters and it doesn't seem like centrists like or respect her either; she has no base of loyal supporters. If she thinks she has better than a snowball's chance in hell at ever becoming president she needs to talk to some mental health experts.
She isn't liked by lefty voters, she isn't likely by right-wing voters and it doesn't seem like centrists like or respect her either; she has no base of loyal supporters. If she thinks she has better than a snowball's chance in hell at ever becoming president she needs to talk to some mental health experts.
You have to remember that Arizona is not a deep blue state, and its two most famous senators, Goldwater and McCain, were famous for bucking their party, it's virtually a state tradition at this point. If she's not gearing up for a presidential run, what I think she's doing is establishing herself as a true independent, demonstrating to center right and center left voters that she won't be beholden to what the national party wants even under extreme pressure, giving her a lot more breathing room in how she votes and campaigns. If the senate stays close, that would give her a huge amount of power, as we're already seeing with her and Manchin, as she could wring massive concessions out of either party in exchange for caucusing with them and potentially changing who controls the chamber. I hate the expression "4-D chess", but I think that might actually be what she's doing here, gambling short term pain against long term pay off.
I also happen to think she and Manchin are completely correct about protecting the filibuster, and I'm on the record saying the same thing when the GOP had total control, so I'm not just playing politics with that position.
_________________
“The totally convinced and the totally stupid have too much in common for the resemblance to be accidental.”
-- Robert Anton Wilson
Kraichgauer
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Joined: 12 Apr 2010
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Posts: 47,790
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.
24 Jan 2022, 7:41 pm
Dox47 wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Sinema aint gonna get anywhere near the Democratic nomination in order to run against Trump. And it's precisely her stances she's been taking that have sealed her fate.
I'm not so sure, Biden ran on the promise of a return to normalcy, and has failed to deliver in a spectacular was thus far, pandering to the loud but unpopular progressive wing, bungling the Afghan withdrawal, flailing on covid and inflation when he's not trying to gaslight the electorate about the latter, etc, a straight down the middle centrist with a record of standing up to her own party might look mighty appealing in 2024. If Biden is still alive in 2024 and the polls show him going down in flames against Trump or his next analogue, the party may well go looking for another horse to run, and as I've mentioned, the cupboard looks pretty bare from here.
I think it's a well known fact that every sitting President who's been challenged from within his own party has always lost. I don't see the Dems deserting Biden for that fact alone, unless he becomes too incapacitated or dies.
As for Biden's bad numbers - - there hasn't been a President or party in power who hasn't had a rough time during the midterms. Let's see how he's doing in the next Presidential election before we write his political obituary.
_________________
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
24 Jan 2022, 8:22 pm
Kraichgauer wrote:
As for Biden's bad numbers - - there hasn't been a President or party in power who hasn't had a rough time during the midterms. Let's see how he's doing in the next Presidential election before we write his political obituary.
That's fair, though I will point out that his numbers are actually worse than Trump's at this point in his presidency, and Biden's whole pitch was to be not as bad as Trump. Biden may be able to turn it around, but he's going to have to start acting like the guy he campaigned as, rather than trying to be FDR without FDR's mandate.
_________________
“The totally convinced and the totally stupid have too much in common for the resemblance to be accidental.”
-- Robert Anton Wilson
Kraichgauer
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Joined: 12 Apr 2010
Gender: Male
Posts: 47,790
Location: Spokane area, Washington state.
24 Jan 2022, 8:43 pm
Dox47 wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
As for Biden's bad numbers - - there hasn't been a President or party in power who hasn't had a rough time during the midterms. Let's see how he's doing in the next Presidential election before we write his political obituary.
That's fair, though I will point out that his numbers are actually worse than Trump's at this point in his presidency, and Biden's whole pitch was to be not as bad as Trump. Biden may be able to turn it around, but he's going to have to start acting like the guy he campaigned as, rather than trying to be FDR without FDR's mandate.
Biden and his people have talked about hitting the reset button for his Presidency.
_________________
-Bill, otherwise known as Kraichgauer
26 Jan 2022, 6:41 pm
Dox47 wrote:
I've heard conflicting rumors about her long term plans, either running as an independent in 2024, or running for President in 2024 as a down the middle centrist; either way, being censured by the local Democratic Party probably doesn't hurt her.
If she runs as an independent she'll just bleed a few votes off the GOP. She has no chance as a democrat and evangelical Republicans won't support her. Her political career is over, but I don't think she cares that much.
26 Jan 2022, 6:49 pm
Kraichgauer wrote:
Sinema had ridden in to victory running as a progressive (as odd as that might seem in her state), so being against voting rights and the infrastructure bill, as well as being opposed to raising taxes on the rich for social spending isn't sitting well with the people who put her into office.
I seriously can't see Democrats supporting her for a Presidential run just for those stances she's taken. There's nothing centrist about supporting voter suppression, and she should know that.
I seriously can't see Democrats supporting her for a Presidential run just for those stances she's taken. There's nothing centrist about supporting voter suppression, and she should know that.
Yea. Her campaign painted a very different picture. People feel betrayed. People who voted for her GOP opposition support her, not the people who voted for her.
funeralxempire
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26 Jan 2022, 6:57 pm
Dox47 wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
For all the claims that she's likely to be embraced by right-wing voters, that doesn't seem too likely. Have they embraced any other DINOs, or would most DINOs be considered RINOs if they became Republicans?
She isn't liked by lefty voters, she isn't likely by right-wing voters and it doesn't seem like centrists like or respect her either; she has no base of loyal supporters. If she thinks she has better than a snowball's chance in hell at ever becoming president she needs to talk to some mental health experts.
She isn't liked by lefty voters, she isn't likely by right-wing voters and it doesn't seem like centrists like or respect her either; she has no base of loyal supporters. If she thinks she has better than a snowball's chance in hell at ever becoming president she needs to talk to some mental health experts.
You have to remember that Arizona is not a deep blue state, and its two most famous senators, Goldwater and McCain, were famous for bucking their party, it's virtually a state tradition at this point. If she's not gearing up for a presidential run, what I think she's doing is establishing herself as a true independent, demonstrating to center right and center left voters that she won't be beholden to what the national party wants even under extreme pressure, giving her a lot more breathing room in how she votes and campaigns. If the senate stays close, that would give her a huge amount of power, as we're already seeing with her and Manchin, as she could wring massive concessions out of either party in exchange for caucusing with them and potentially changing who controls the chamber. I hate the expression "4-D chess", but I think that might actually be what she's doing here, gambling short term pain against long term pay off.
I also happen to think she and Manchin are completely correct about protecting the filibuster, and I'm on the record saying the same thing when the GOP had total control, so I'm not just playing politics with that position.
I'm not sure how to feel towards the filibuster (obviously eliminating it would be a gamble and I'm not certain the short-term gains would be enough to ensure the potential risks don't occur - the potential for blowback is substantial and you're not wrong to draw attention to it) but I don't believe Sinema is going to flip this into a meteoric rise, I anticipate she'll be political irrelevant before 2024 and that she'll never be a viable presidential candidate, let alone president.
_________________
Watching liberals try to solve societal problems without a systemic critique/class consciousness is like watching someone in the dark try to flip on the light switch, but they keep turning on the garbage disposal instead.
戦争ではなく戦争と戦う
26 Jan 2022, 7:00 pm
Dox47 wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
As for Biden's bad numbers - - there hasn't been a President or party in power who hasn't had a rough time during the midterms. Let's see how he's doing in the next Presidential election before we write his political obituary.
That's fair, though I will point out that his numbers are actually worse than Trump's at this point in his presidency, and Biden's whole pitch was to be not as bad as Trump. Biden may be able to turn it around, but he's going to have to start acting like the guy he campaigned as, rather than trying to be FDR without FDR's mandate.
He never tried to be FDR. It was all words. He has hardly been able to do anything with congress and won't do any of the popular things he could do with an executive order.
26 Jan 2022, 7:07 pm
Dox47 wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
As for Biden's bad numbers - - there hasn't been a President or party in power who hasn't had a rough time during the midterms. Let's see how he's doing in the next Presidential election before we write his political obituary.
That's fair, though I will point out that his numbers are actually worse than Trump's at this point in his presidency, and Biden's whole pitch was to be not as bad as Trump. Biden may be able to turn it around, but he's going to have to start acting like the guy he campaigned as, rather than trying to be FDR without FDR's mandate.
I don't think there is anything he can do to please the people who are disappointed that COVID and all it's global economic repercussions didn't magically end when he became president. Moderate Dems campaigned on opposing Trump and blaming Trump for every COVID death in 2020... because they didn't really have anything else to say about anything.
26 Jan 2022, 7:10 pm
Kraichgauer wrote:
Tim_Tex wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Dox47 wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
Sinema had ridden in to victory running as a progressive (as odd as that might seem in her state), so being against voting rights and the infrastructure bill, as well as being opposed to raising taxes on the rich for social spending isn't sitting well with the people who put her into office.
I seriously can't see Democrats supporting her for a Presidential run just for those stances she's taken. There's nothing centrist about supporting voter suppression, and she should know that.
I seriously can't see Democrats supporting her for a Presidential run just for those stances she's taken. There's nothing centrist about supporting voter suppression, and she should know that.
I don't think you realize that none of that is important vs winning, if they think she's their best chance to win, they'll run her and forgive all of her heresies, it's how this works. Do you seriously think that if 2024 rolls around and the choice is between Trump 2.0 and Kyrsten Sinema, Democrats are going to say "you know what, we just can't give her our votes after what she did in 2021-22, we're staying home"? Would you?
More currently, do you really not see the danger in screwing with the filibuster with your party poised for an electoral shellacking of historic proportions? That whatever they passed without the 60 vote threshold, the GOP would simply roll back in 2024, and then take their revenge? McConnell famously warned Harry Reid in 2013 that he would regret eliminating the judicial filibuster, and sooner than he expected, and then went on to fulfill that promise with a vengeance, and he's making the same promise again with the legislative filibuster. Like I said, this is like putting a loaded gun to your own head and hoping the other guy doesn't pull the trigger, when the other guy has a long history of trigger pulling that should make you very nervous.
Sinema aint gonna get anywhere near the Democratic nomination in order to run against Trump. And it's precisely her stances she's been taking that have sealed her fate.
Who do you think will get the nom for the Dems? I think it will be Biden or Harris, but I would like to see Inslee or Klobuchar make another run.
As for the GOP, it remains to be seen. I hope it’s Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger or Larry Hogan.
Right now, I'm thinking it'll be Biden and Harris. As every sitting President who's been challenged within his own party has lost the Presidential election, I certainly hope the Dems won't be that stupid.
Well, Harris was a horrible pick.
26 Jan 2022, 7:15 pm
funeralxempire wrote:
I'm not sure how to feel towards the filibuster (obviously eliminating it would be a gamble and I'm not certain the short-term gains would be enough to ensure the potential risks don't occur - the potential for blowback is substantial and you're not wrong to draw attention to it) but I don't believe Sinema is going to flip this into a meteoric rise, I anticipate she'll be political irrelevant before 2024 and that she'll never be a viable presidential candidate, let alone president.
I don't know either, I just see a lot of potential in what I think she's going for, both parties are so polarized towards their extremes that I think there's a lane for a moderate who can genuinely appeal to both sides of the aisle.
_________________
“The totally convinced and the totally stupid have too much in common for the resemblance to be accidental.”
-- Robert Anton Wilson
funeralxempire
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Joined: 27 Oct 2014
Age: 39
Gender: Non-binary
Posts: 25,496
Location: Right over your left shoulder
26 Jan 2022, 7:21 pm
Dox47 wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
I'm not sure how to feel towards the filibuster (obviously eliminating it would be a gamble and I'm not certain the short-term gains would be enough to ensure the potential risks don't occur - the potential for blowback is substantial and you're not wrong to draw attention to it) but I don't believe Sinema is going to flip this into a meteoric rise, I anticipate she'll be political irrelevant before 2024 and that she'll never be a viable presidential candidate, let alone president.
I don't know either, I just see a lot of potential in what I think she's going for, both parties are so polarized towards their extremes that I think there's a lane for a moderate who can genuinely appeal to both sides of the aisle.
I feel like if there's potential for someone like that they likely won't come from within either party and will be someone who manages to strike a balance between Sanders-ish left populism and the more genuine version of right populism that exists at a grassroots level in some alt-right groups.
That person might be unlikely to exist and even less likely to survive a rise in visibility in politics though.
_________________
Watching liberals try to solve societal problems without a systemic critique/class consciousness is like watching someone in the dark try to flip on the light switch, but they keep turning on the garbage disposal instead.
戦争ではなく戦争と戦う
Last edited by funeralxempire on 26 Jan 2022, 7:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
26 Jan 2022, 7:22 pm
NoClearMind53 wrote:
He never tried to be FDR. It was all words. He has hardly been able to do anything with congress and won't do any of the popular things he could do with an executive order.
He's tried to pass massive, transformative social spending packages and a complete federal takeover of the electoral system when he doesn't have the votes or the mandate, it's political malpractice, a self inflicted wound. He was elected as a return to normalcy placeholder, all people wanted him to do is be a steady hand on the ship of state, but he keeps listening to the progressives whispering in his ear that he could be more, and he needs to tune that out.
_________________
“The totally convinced and the totally stupid have too much in common for the resemblance to be accidental.”
-- Robert Anton Wilson
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