Sen. Kyrsten Sinema censured by Arizona Democratic Party

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blazingstar
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26 Jan 2022, 7:32 pm

funeralxempire wrote:
Dox47 wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
For all the claims that she's likely to be embraced by right-wing voters, that doesn't seem too likely. Have they embraced any other DINOs, or would most DINOs be considered RINOs if they became Republicans?

She isn't liked by lefty voters, she isn't likely by right-wing voters and it doesn't seem like centrists like or respect her either; she has no base of loyal supporters. If she thinks she has better than a snowball's chance in hell at ever becoming president she needs to talk to some mental health experts.


You have to remember that Arizona is not a deep blue state, and its two most famous senators, Goldwater and McCain, were famous for bucking their party, it's virtually a state tradition at this point. If she's not gearing up for a presidential run, what I think she's doing is establishing herself as a true independent, demonstrating to center right and center left voters that she won't be beholden to what the national party wants even under extreme pressure, giving her a lot more breathing room in how she votes and campaigns. If the senate stays close, that would give her a huge amount of power, as we're already seeing with her and Manchin, as she could wring massive concessions out of either party in exchange for caucusing with them and potentially changing who controls the chamber. I hate the expression "4-D chess", but I think that might actually be what she's doing here, gambling short term pain against long term pay off.

I also happen to think she and Manchin are completely correct about protecting the filibuster, and I'm on the record saying the same thing when the GOP had total control, so I'm not just playing politics with that position.


I'm not sure how to feel towards the filibuster (obviously eliminating it would be a gamble and I'm not certain the short-term gains would be enough to ensure the potential risks don't occur - the potential for blowback is substantial and you're not wrong to draw attention to it) but I don't believe Sinema is going to flip this into a meteoric rise, I anticipate she'll be political irrelevant before 2024 and that she'll never be a viable presidential candidate, let alone president.


What about returning the filibuster to the rule that the senator has to actually stand up and talk for the duration?


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Dox47
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26 Jan 2022, 7:38 pm

funeralxempire wrote:
I feel like if there's potential for someone like that they likely won't come from within either party and will be someone who manages to strike a balance between Sanders-ish left populism and the more genuine version of right populism that exists at a grassroots level in some alt-right groups.

That person might be unlikely to exist and even less likely to survive a rise in visibility in politics though.


I don't disagree, I just think I see a method to Sinema's madness and think she may be onto something given the political makeup of her state. Defying the party in such a flagrant manner and under so much pressure sends an extremely strong signal about her independence from them, which could give right leaning centrists the assurance they need to support her, knowing she won't flip flip the second Chuck Schumer demands her vote on something.

To use myself as an example here, I'm extremely jaded about Democrats who say "I respect the Second Amendment", as I know there's always a "but..." about to follow, and I've seen even Dems who were genuinely good on the issue flip flop when the national party twists their arms (see: Sanders, Bernie). What would a Democrat have to do to make me trust them on this issue? Maybe defy their entire party and hold up priority legislation that the national establishment desperately wants passed and refuse to back down under the pressure, maybe introduce a Second Amendment 2.0 along with the GOP that enshrines a clarification of "shall not be infringed", basically I would need to see burned bridges to convince me of their commitment, real pain and sacrifice rather than cheap words. Again, I can't claim to know, but I think she might be doing something like that here, making an irrevocable act of commitment.


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Dox47
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26 Jan 2022, 7:39 pm

blazingstar wrote:

What about returning the filibuster to the rule that the senator has to actually stand up and talk for the duration?


That's the political equivalent of "just the tip", it won't end there.


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funeralxempire
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26 Jan 2022, 7:47 pm

Dox47 wrote:
blazingstar wrote:

What about returning the filibuster to the rule that the senator has to actually stand up and talk for the duration?


That's the political equivalent of "just the tip", it won't end there.


To be fair, isn't that largely what both parties say about most issues these days?

Especially when the only real change would be the amount of personal effort the political representatives have to invest in using the filibuster. If it's too easy it's just like having a higher bar for what counts as a majority in a lot of cases, no?


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26 Jan 2022, 7:51 pm

funeralxempire wrote:
If it's too easy it's just like having a higher bar for what counts as a majority in a lot of cases, no?


I actually don't have a problem with that, I'd prefer some sort of super-majority threshold for most lawmaking, as I've never liked the idea that 51% of the people can trample over the other 49%, though I'm not sure where I'd set the threshold.


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26 Jan 2022, 8:19 pm

NoClearMind53 wrote:
Dox47 wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
As for Biden's bad numbers - - there hasn't been a President or party in power who hasn't had a rough time during the midterms. Let's see how he's doing in the next Presidential election before we write his political obituary.


That's fair, though I will point out that his numbers are actually worse than Trump's at this point in his presidency, and Biden's whole pitch was to be not as bad as Trump. Biden may be able to turn it around, but he's going to have to start acting like the guy he campaigned as, rather than trying to be FDR without FDR's mandate.

I don't think there is anything he can do to please the people who are disappointed that COVID and all it's global economic repercussions didn't magically end when he became president. Moderate Dems campaigned on opposing Trump and blaming Trump for every COVID death in 2020... because they didn't really have anything else to say about anything.


Obama had left Trump a program manned by virus experts to eradicate any future pandemics, but because it had been Obama who had established it, Trump for that reason alone did away with it. Had it still been in place, Covid might have been handled better at the start.


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26 Jan 2022, 8:23 pm

Dox47 wrote:
funeralxempire wrote:
If it's too easy it's just like having a higher bar for what counts as a majority in a lot of cases, no?


I actually don't have a problem with that, I'd prefer some sort of super-majority threshold for most lawmaking, as I've never liked the idea that 51% of the people can trample over the other 49%, though I'm not sure where I'd set the threshold.


It's the sort of thing where ideally the threshold could vary depending on the exact nature of the issue, although I'm not sure what a workable solution for that would be. Ideally the interests of those actually impacted and the extent of the impact would add or reduce the volume of one's voice in those discussions.

Other tangent: It rarely works out as 49% vs. 51% because of how the electoral system skews things (this is true for either of our countries). A FPTP system does it, the shape and demographics of the ridings/districts does it and other problems of that sort distort things well before the elected representatives chosen by that system go to vote. In the US this mostly gives weight to sparsely populated rural states, in Canada it basically means elections can't be won without southern Ontario and Quebec.

I don't like the idea of 50%+1 vote being able to utterly dominate a minority but protections also can't allow <50% to dominate the majority regardless of the people's will. Constitutional law and established precedent can provide guidance but what about the hypothetical situation where they provide guidance that's misguided and wrong?

In a lot of ways liberal representative democracies are just slightly less centralized dictatorships and that whole previous conundrum might be one of the more obvious examples, essentially: would you prefer dictatorship by majority, dictatorship by minority and we'd better hope the checks and balances work to ensure things keep working as intended but also that the intentions were actually good instead of slowly adding in structural weaknesses that might eventually contribute to failure.


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26 Jan 2022, 9:12 pm

Dox47 wrote:
NoClearMind53 wrote:
He never tried to be FDR. It was all words. He has hardly been able to do anything with congress and won't do any of the popular things he could do with an executive order.


He's tried to pass massive, transformative social spending packages and a complete federal takeover of the electoral system when he doesn't have the votes or the mandate, it's political malpractice, a self inflicted wound. He was elected as a return to normalcy placeholder, all people wanted him to do is be a steady hand on the ship of state, but he keeps listening to the progressives whispering in his ear that he could be more, and he needs to tune that out.

But he hasn't actually done anything and that bill, while not perfect, would have actually helped a lot people unlike all the garbage corporate handout bills that were passed by "reaching across the isle". It doesn't help when the media never talks about what's in a bill and just repeats the price tag over and over again with no qualification that it is over a ten year period.

Anyways, my belief on so called "moderates" is that they are not at all what they claim. They are the "socialism for the rich, austerity for the poor" shills that both conservatives and progressives hate. At least the conservative wing of the GOP is consistent and will oppose corporate bailouts as well as social spending. It's just funny how they never have quite enough votes, just like the progressives never have quite enough votes.



NoClearMind53
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26 Jan 2022, 9:21 pm

Kraichgauer wrote:
NoClearMind53 wrote:
Dox47 wrote:
Kraichgauer wrote:
As for Biden's bad numbers - - there hasn't been a President or party in power who hasn't had a rough time during the midterms. Let's see how he's doing in the next Presidential election before we write his political obituary.


That's fair, though I will point out that his numbers are actually worse than Trump's at this point in his presidency, and Biden's whole pitch was to be not as bad as Trump. Biden may be able to turn it around, but he's going to have to start acting like the guy he campaigned as, rather than trying to be FDR without FDR's mandate.

I don't think there is anything he can do to please the people who are disappointed that COVID and all it's global economic repercussions didn't magically end when he became president. Moderate Dems campaigned on opposing Trump and blaming Trump for every COVID death in 2020... because they didn't really have anything else to say about anything.


Obama had left Trump a program manned by virus experts to eradicate any future pandemics, but because it had been Obama who had established it, Trump for that reason alone did away with it. Had it still been in place, Covid might have been handled better at the start.

Looking at how things panned out over the rest of the world I don't think anything would have made it drastically better. The US was always bound to be particularly bad due to the extreme capitalist mindset of the country. People are going to come to work with covid and spread it to everyone else there if the alternative is not being able to to pay for rent or food.



NoClearMind53
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26 Jan 2022, 9:34 pm

Dox47 wrote:
I don't disagree, I just think I see a method to Sinema's madness and think she may be onto something given the political makeup of her state. Defying the party in such a flagrant manner and under so much pressure sends an extremely strong signal about her independence from them, which could give right leaning centrists the assurance they need to support her, knowing she won't flip flip the second Chuck Schumer demands her vote on something.

She isn't under any real pressure from anyone but her donors. Demands made without actual material threats are meaningless in politics. She's the current rotating villain. Right leaning centrists who are socially liberal are a small voting block because the majority of the country isn't affluent. If people were so happy with the status quo in 2016 Trump wouldn't have happened.