Nobody interested in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

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carlos55
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05 May 2023, 9:26 am

goldfish21 wrote:
Maybe already discussed here, but I heard in a David Pakman vid clip that russia says Ukraine attacked the kremlin with a drone and it was masterminded by the USA.

David’s thoughts were lol ya right most likely a russian flase flag as it’s highly unlikely that an attack masterminded by the USA would result in just a flag pole being damaged. Also doesn’t make sense that any drone would get past air defences around the kremlin.

If that’s the whole story, sounds like bs. Pretty sure if the USA was gonna collab with Ukraine on attacking the kremlin they’d have done it when putin was there and they’ve have used something more like bunker busters or a couple MOAB’s vs whatever firecracker got delivered by a dji from radio shack.

But I guess putin generated some propaganda out of it to get his cult followers to double down on his Ukrainian liberation efforts or whatever.


A person doesn’t have to be an aeronautical engineer to realize a drone that small and low powered didn’t fly 400 km to reach the kremlin.

It was probably launched from the back of a van down some deserted street 8km away to the target.

There’s lots of Ukrainians in Russia on Ukraine side who would do this not to mention tactical teams sneaking in across the border


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05 May 2023, 11:50 am

Ya but does anything about it suggest it was “masterminded by the USA” ? :?

Like maybe if they put a 9 year old kid in charge and all he had the imagination to use were some firecrackers leftover from the 4th of July. :lol:

Just have a very hard time believing the USA would “mastermind,” a bit of damage to a flag pole when putin wasn’t home vs a smoking hole in the ground deep enough to discover diamonds & maybe a geothermal energy source.

Sounds like total bs to me. Probably to most Russians, too. They can’t possibly believe that the USA is that incompetent.


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05 May 2023, 11:58 am

carlos55 wrote:
A person doesn’t have to be an aeronautical engineer to realize a drone that small and low powered didn’t fly 400 km to reach the kremlin.


The Mugin-5 has a flight duration of over 7 hours.
https://www.muginuav.com/product/mugin- ... -platform/

The Ukrainian UJ-22 has a flight range of over 800 km in autonomous mode.

These are the most likely models of drone used in the attack and it is not beyond their capabilities.

This doesn't mean Ukraine is responsible, but it does mean it's within their abilities.


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05 May 2023, 12:49 pm

funeralxempire wrote:
carlos55 wrote:
A person doesn’t have to be an aeronautical engineer to realize a drone that small and low powered didn’t fly 400 km to reach the kremlin.


The Mugin-5 has a flight duration of over 7 hours.
https://www.muginuav.com/product/mugin- ... -platform/

The Ukrainian UJ-22 has a flight range of over 800 km in autonomous mode.

These are the most likely models of drone used in the attack and it is not beyond their capabilities.

This doesn't mean Ukraine is responsible, but it does mean it's within their abilities.


Nice post :nerdy:


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05 May 2023, 1:27 pm

I think the drone was operated by Putin, doing a bit of false flaggin’


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05 May 2023, 9:13 pm

Quote:
Update from Ukraine | Wagner leaves Bakhmut | Ruzzia is Scared of the Counterattack
Denys Davydov
637K subscribers
151K views 2 hours ago




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05 May 2023, 10:11 pm

The Ukrainians would be more than justified if they tried to assassinate Putin. But they would not use a weapon so weak it can only damage a flagpole to kill a person who was not there.


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05 May 2023, 11:59 pm

ASPartOfMe wrote:
The Ukrainians would be more than justified if they tried to assassinate Putin. But they would not use a weapon so weak it can only damage a flagpole to kill a person who was not there.


It was either a false flag operation or a symbolic gesture. 8)



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15 May 2023, 1:29 am

Pentagon documents reveal Zelensky wants to intensify attacks on Russian soil

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Leaked Pentagon reports this year detail confidential proposals by the Ukrainian presidency to intensify attacks on Russian soil. They are the most compromising documents for Ukraine in its defense against the invasion, since they would confirm that its president, Volodimir Zelenski, is willing to cross the red lines marked by his international allies. Zelenski, according to information published this Sunday by The Washington Post, He has proposed occupying Russian municipalities on the other side of the border and even destroying the pipeline that supplies crude oil to Hungary.

These documents would be part of the massive leak of US intelligence information discovered last April. The suspect behind the disclosure of this secret material is a 21-year-old US soldier who was arrested a month ago.

The United States, France and Germany have made it clear that the war cannot spread to Russian territory. Both Zelenski and his foreign and defense ministers have reiterated that the weapons provided by their NATO allies will not be used to attack the enemy beyond their borders, but the documents that he has released The Washington Post they indicate that, behind closed doors, the Ukrainian political and military leadership may have other ideas. In a meeting last February with Valeri Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Zelensky regretted not having long-range missiles to destroy enemy military assets hundreds of kilometers from the front. The president has replied, in statements to the American newspaper, that these are only private conversations with his generals.

Ukraine regularly bombards, using artillery and drones, military and energy targets in the Russian provinces bordering its territory. It has also managed to land drone strikes hundreds of kilometers inside Russian borders, such as those that took place last December at the Engels and Dyagilevo airbases. This Saturday, two planes and two combat helicopters were shot down in the Russian province of Bryansk, bordering northern Ukraine. As usual, the Ukrainian authorities do not acknowledge responsibility for these attacks.

Sergei Melnik, general in command of the Kharkov province, in eastern Ukraine, defended last April in an interview with EL PAÍS the need to destroy enemy positions in the Russian province of Belgorod, bordering on Kharkov, because since there they are firing on Ukrainian territory. Melnik also added that it was essential to be able to attack the Russian air bases from which the bombers take off, which, without leaving Russian soil, fire cruise missiles at targets in Ukraine, both military and civilian.

The leak of the Pentagon documents may stop the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine’s NATO allies. The UK announced on May 11 that it has delivered British-French-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles to kyiv. This weapon has a range of 250 kilometers. The United States agreed last February to supply the GLSDB long-range missiles. These are tactical rockets designed to eliminate very precise targets, but without the ability to destroy large infrastructure.

The information published by The Washington Post it includes a Zelensky meeting last January in which the president proposed that his troops cross the border to seize Russian townships, with the aim of “giving Kiev an advantage in negotiations with Moscow.” Ukrainian special forces units have already operated inside Russia, but the proposal to invade townships would put Ukraine’s allies in a diplomatic situation of maximum tension. Russia has been building defense fortifications on its border with Ukraine for months. The Kremlin has accused kyiv and its NATO partners of wanting to invade part of Russia. Speaking to the washington post, Zelensky assured that his armed forces have no intention of entering Russian territory. The Ukrainian leader added that no one in Ukraine has given orders to attack on the soil of the invading country.

The documents show that the United States is infiltrating the powers of the Ukrainian state. They offer pinpoint details, such as Zelensky’s proposal in a mid-February meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Yuliya Svrydenko to sabotage the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies oil to Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the main EU leader in favor of understanding with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The New York Times reported last March that US intelligence has indications that Ukrainian groups sabotaged the Nordstream marine gas pipeline connecting Russia with Germany in 2022.

The Pentagon also has to its credit a 2022 plan, which was not carried out, by the intelligence services of the Ukrainian army to attack Russian positions in Syria, in covert operations together with Kurdish groups opposed to the Bashar al-Assad dictatorship. Russia is the main military support that El Asad has had to stay in power.

Zelensky argues in The Washington Post the need to use “any trick” to defend against an invasion “in which so many people have died, in which mass graves have been discovered and in which there has been torture.”


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15 May 2023, 6:58 pm

One part of this story leaps out at me as very odd:

Quote:
These documents would be part of the massive leak of US intelligence information discovered last April. The suspect behind the disclosure of this secret material is a 21-year-old US soldier who was arrested a month ago.

How would a "21-year-old US soldier" gain access to so much intelligence info in the first place?


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15 May 2023, 11:09 pm

Mona Pereth wrote:
One part of this story leaps out at me as very odd:

Quote:
These documents would be part of the massive leak of US intelligence information discovered last April. The suspect behind the disclosure of this secret material is a 21-year-old US soldier who was arrested a month ago.

How would a "21-year-old US soldier" gain access to so much intelligence info in the first place?


That is what everybody has been asking.


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19 May 2023, 5:36 pm

US to support providing F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine

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The US says it will support providing advanced fighter jets including US-made F-16s to Ukraine and also back training Ukrainian pilots to fly them.

A senior White House official said President Biden had told G7 leaders in Japan of the decision.
President Volodomyr Zelensky, who has requested fighter jets for months, said the decision would "greatly enhance our army in the sky".

US approval for the scheme means other nations can export their F-16s.

This is because the US legally has to approve the re-export of equipment purchased by allies.

The US would "support a joint effort with our allies and partners to train Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation fighter aircraft, including F-16s, to further strengthen and improve the capabilities of the Ukrainian Air Force", the official said.

"As the training takes place over the coming months, our coalition of countries participating in this effort will decide when to actually provide jets, how many we will provide, and who will provide them."

Senior US military officials who've spoken to the BBC in the past have questioned whether Western-supplied fighter jets will dramatically alter the conflict, with Russia's large air force still struggling to gain air superiority and the high density of air defence systems on the ground.

So this change in US policy is significant. However, training pilots to fly F-16 jets will take time. Ukraine does have more trained fighter pilots than aircraft at present. But even training experienced fighter pilots on a new plane could take up to four months for an already experienced pilot.

And then nations will need to agree to supply the jets. The F-16 is widely used by a number of European and Middle East nations as well as the US, which still manufactures the aircraft. Who is willing to supply the jets is the next key question.

The UK, Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark also welcomed the US move.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak tweeted: "The UK will work together with the USA and the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark to get Ukraine the combat air capability it needs."

The UK does not have any F-16s in its air force itself.

Denmark has announced it too will now be able to support the training of pilots, but did not confirm whether it would send any jets to Ukraine. Denmark's air force has 40 F-16s, around 30 of which are operational.

Mr Sunak said the UK would set up a flight school to train Ukrainian pilots. French leader Emmanuel Macron said his country was willing to do the same but would not provide jets.

Some of the opposition to sending the jets has centred around maintenance issues, with former Nato official Dr Jamie Shea saying they require extensive maintenance after almost every fight.

Some Nato member countries have also expressed their worries that handing jets to Ukraine would be viewed as escalating the war, risking a direct confrontation with Russia.

At the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine was believed to have around 120 combat capable aircraft - mainly consisting of aging Soviet-era MiG-29s and Su-27s.
But officials say they need up to 200 jets to match Moscow's air-power - which is thought to be five or six times greater than Kyiv's.


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21 May 2023, 6:18 am

Bakhmut finally fallen? We've heard that before. Meanwhile here is a long article containing some thoughts and predictions on the war post-Bakhmut, the F-16 turnaround and more (tl;dr the F-16s are just propaganda to shore up flagging support for Ukraine in about 4 months time. Ukraine, like Bernie Sanders, can still win guys.):

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sit ... -artemovsk

None of the tricks worked. All the endless distractions, diversions, deflections, and myriad attempts to pry our eyes from the inevitable, massive humiliation for NATO forces in Bakhmut—or is it Artemovsk now?—using every tool in their possession, from diversionary strikes on civilians on Russian border towns, to outright political assassination to steal headlines and steer public attention: none of it worked.

Bakhmut today has fallen on the exact one year anniversary of the fall of Mariupol on May 20th, 2022. And not surprisingly, the posture adopted by the UA supporters is the same exact energy as before: cringe, cope, excuse-making. “Bakhmut’s mission is accomplished,” they say, swallowing sobs.


...

Here’s the vast, incalculable list of units which were broken over the Wagnerian rock:

Image


Why is Bakhmut called a Meat Grinder?
Who was decimated in Bakhmut:
Brigades:
45th Brigade
43rd Brigade
26th Brigade
28th Brigade
62nd Brigade
63rd Brigade
53rd Brigade
60th Brigade
24th Brigade
57th Brigade
30th Brigade
Advance Rubizh Brigade
Advance Azov Brigade
Advance Uragan Brigade
Advance Spartan Brigade
109th Brigade
116th Brigade
119th Brigade
241st Brigade
93rd Brigade
77th Brigade
46th Brigade
4th Brigade
17th Brigade
61st Brigade of Jaegers
Special Forces and Spetsnaz Regiments:
5th Assault Regiment
8th Regiment of Special Forces
Kraken Battalions:
122nd Battalion
68th Battalion
214th OPFOR Battalion
49th Rifle Battalion
15th Mountain Assault Battalion
Omega
Border Guard Donetsk
8th Regiment of the UDAR UAVs:
Shershen
Adam
Karlsen
Terra
Skala
Madyar
Khartia
Kep
Seneka
WASP Legions:
Dudaev Battalion
Georgian Legion
Mansur Battalion
Shamil Battalion
Gonor
Normandy Legion
Most of these battalions have suffered more than 70% casualties just against PMC Wagner.


Image

Image


According to FT sources, Washington believes the next five months are critical to the outcome of the conflict. “If we get to September and Ukraine has not made significant gains, then the international pressure on [the West] to bring them to negotiations will be enormous,” another source told the FT, on condition of anonymity.

It appears to me that Ukraine’s final deadline is being positioned for another timely rejuvenation deus-ex-machina style with the addition of a new ‘wunderwaffe’ to tide over the sagging skeptics for another few months. As you’ve probably figured out by now, there are two camps in the West. One whose support is waning, who sees reality written into the Ukrainian blood spattering every inch of their soil, and knows it’s only a matter of time. This group believes it’s best to just pull the plug and save everyone the headache. But the other, likely smaller ‘vanguard’ group, which are the true die-hard globalist nomenklatura tied to the most insidious ‘higher authorities’ who run the world, is desperate to continue the conflict at all costs, as for them, defeat to Russia would be catastrophic. This group is fighting to string along a series of continuous morale-boosters like the F-16 (and the Patriot, JDAM, HIMARs, etc., before it) to convince the first camp to continue feeding Ukraine with money and arms.

Their job is to create an endless ‘power creep’ of wunderwaffe to act as continuous defibrillatory ‘shock paddles’ to the flatlining Ukrainian corpse. So now, they desperately try to accelerate the F-16 program to save Ukraine from total support cut-off at that final eleventh hour by the end of Summer. Why Summer, you ask? Well, besides the recent statements I alluded to, where several figures mentioned a 4-5 month remaining time span of support, Summer is a natural period for which any realistic Ukrainian offensive or gains can be expected. Not only have Ukrainian officials previously made statements to that effect—for instance, Budanov’s statement that Summer will see the key, climactic battles that will determine this entire war

...

So, as you can see, once September comes, and any long-awaited Ukrainian gains to turn flops, there will be the F-16 booster to inject new life into the flagging Eurocrats. A token force of F-16s can be used to create new psychological propaganda operations, where some token strike deep in Russian territory will be hailed as a stupendous achievement and a ‘sure sign’ that the renewed AFU is on its way to defeating Russia, retaking Crimea, etc., etc. At this point, you know how the game works—it’s both repetitive and predictable.

...

The Big Underlying Question

The really big logical question for all of this, though, is what’s the point of all these delaying tactics that string the conflict along indefinitely? These wunderwaffen like the F-16s which even their purveyors know would essentially be useless? What eventuality or final goal are they stringing Ukraine along for if they know the obvious trajectory of the war, which is one of inevitable collapse for the AFU?

Do these people actually think Ukraine will eventually win, and if so, how exactly? This is a very good and big question that underlies everything currently happening. What is it they really hope to gain with all this if it’s clear to anyone with even the remotest military knowledge that there’s simply no way possible for Ukraine to win?

There is no exact or clear answer to this, but there are some possibilities I’ll offer.

The first idea is that the small ‘vanguard’ of the Western elite I mentioned earlier hopes to indefinitely prolong the conflict to buy enough time for them to engineer various socio-political upheavals inside of Russia, so that they can foment a coup against Putin which would create a WW1 - 1917 style scenario to collapse Russia and remove them from the war.

...

The next possibility is that they’re simply hoping to extend the war as long as possible with the similar hope that eventually Russian society’s support for the SMO will sour. So, even if Russia is actually winning handily all the while, devastating Ukraine’s military and infrastructure, the West could hope that eventually Russia will exhaust itself both militarily and societally/psychologically, growing tired of the war. Thus, the point would be to create this endless escalatory spiral of wunderwaffe to continuously shore up Ukraine’s morale and that of Western supporters until such time as Russia becomes ripe for weakening.

...

Seymour Hersh recently dropped another ‘bombshell’ that, according to his private sources, several countries led by Poland are considering pulling the plug on Ukraine, even urging Zelensky to resign if he must, in order to end the war: https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/the ... e-question

...

Alex Krainer, who I know from previous comments, many of you read, expanded on this in his recent article:
https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/as-c ... il-empires

There, he says that his own sources in Europe attest to the above. In fact, his article outlines the ‘two groups’ I alluded to earlier, the fanatical vanguard of the ultra-elite who run the ‘cabal’ behind everything, and the other milquetoast pawns who are getting cold feet. Krainer concludes:

“I believe that in the near future we might see an abrupt change in Ukraine, perhaps a coup against the Zelensky regime and a capitulation of Ukraine’s military.”

In short, he foresees a sort of ‘black swan’ event which will render all of our previous prognostications moot, as it will result in a swift and sudden end to the war, likely with a military coup or something of that sort.

...


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21 May 2023, 11:15 am

Zelensky isn't the only one who needs to worry about a coup. Right now Russia looks about as solid as a house of cards.


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24 May 2023, 10:30 am

Perhaps of interest?

"Tankenstein Vehicles of the Russia Ukrainian War Part I

Jeff Groves May 24, 2023

So far during their “Special Military Operation” in the Ukraine Russia has lost more than 10,000 vehicles or pieces of heavy military equipment, with tanks comprising over 2,000 of these losses. Obviously, this kind of attrition is unsustainable in the long term. The Russians have attempted to make good these losses by re-activating old vehicles from storage. In addition, there have been several attempts to convert existing vehicles by adding armor or new weapons systems to make them more capable on the battlefield. These modified vehicles are interesting in themselves and would make for some unique modeling conversions."

https://inchhighguy.wordpress.com/2023/ ... ar-part-i/


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24 May 2023, 8:17 pm

^^^wasn’t this discussed waaaaay early on in this thread ? USA’s interest in prolonging war in Ukraine is quite simply to deplete russia’s military capabilities. Bullets bombs vehicles personnel etc the longer the war goes on the more gets spent, destroyed, killed etc and thus the weaker russia’s capacity to attack anyone else. Makes sense.


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