Nobody interested in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

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magz
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16 Nov 2022, 3:27 am

Pepe, don't repeat unconfirmed speculations. It has not been identified yet and what you post is just one of the possibilities. Another possibility I've read is that it was Kalibr diverted by Ukrainian anti-aircraft. As long as the investigation is ongoing, casting hypotheses with certainity can lead to catastrophic effects.

Most likely it wasn't an intentional attack on Poland but such incident is threatning us anyway. The response needs to be super wise not to make things worse. It's hard not to gossip but let's understand that gossip and leaks are not the investigation results.


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16 Nov 2022, 5:13 am

magz wrote:
Pepe, don't repeat unconfirmed speculations. It has not been identified yet and what you post is just one of the possibilities. Another possibility I've read is that it was Kalibr diverted by Ukrainian anti-aircraft. As long as the investigation is ongoing, casting hypotheses with certainity can lead to catastrophic effects.

Most likely it wasn't an intentional attack on Poland but such incident is threatning us anyway. The response needs to be super wise not to make things worse. It's hard not to gossip but let's understand that gossip and leaks are not the investigation results.


If what I have presented (from a source) is correct, I expect a cookie from you. ;)

Using skunk wisdom, there is no gain for the Russians to provoke Poland like this.
I am getting some milk to have with my up and coming Polish cookie. :mrgreen:



magz
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16 Nov 2022, 5:24 am

Pepe wrote:
Using skunk wisdom, there is no gain for the Russians to provoke Poland like this.

I agree with this. Whatever exactly happened, it was most likely an accident. Another option would be testing boundaries but Russians are getting really agressive with accusations, which means they're scared. That wasn't planned.
That said, the threat of it repeating remains serious and wise actions need to be taken.

Witnesses talked about two missiles but so far only one was confirmed. That's why I'd be caucious with talking about what exactly happened. It could even be both sides right - one Kalibr aimed at Ukrainian power grid node nearby and one air defence missile that diverted its course.


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16 Nov 2022, 5:48 am

magz wrote:
That's why I'd be caucious with talking about what exactly happened.


How many ppl read this website? ;)



magz
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16 Nov 2022, 5:52 am

Pepe wrote:
magz wrote:
That's why I'd be caucious with talking about what exactly happened.

How many ppl read this website? ;)

I'm wary of unconfirmed gossip even in 1-1 real life conversations.
I find it a good attitude. Gossip has harmed me personally so I simply try to avoid doing it at all.


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Pepe
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16 Nov 2022, 5:59 am

magz wrote:
Pepe wrote:
magz wrote:
That's why I'd be caucious with talking about what exactly happened.

How many ppl read this website? ;)

I'm wary of unconfirmed gossip even in 1-1 real life conversations.
I find it a good attitude.


There was a picture of part of the missile.
They may have verified whose it was, but you are right.
We will know their findings shortly, since they have the evidence.



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16 Nov 2022, 6:14 am

I trust Reuters and they printed this today:

Poland blast caused by missile fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian missile - Associated Press

https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-bl ... 022-11-16/

Let's hope it was just an accident. But as Magz said, this is a delicate moment for the world.


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magz
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16 Nov 2022, 6:27 am

They say it's a missile for an S-300 system.
Both sides use it, Ukrainians for air defence, Russians as repurposed for ground attack.

In any case, no indication of the attack being intended to happen in Poland - but two people died.
Now we need to proceed very wisely not to make the situation worse.


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16 Nov 2022, 6:30 am

Yes...those people getting killed is a dangerous development.

It's inevitable that the war will spread to a NATO country at some point isn't it...


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magz
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16 Nov 2022, 6:54 am

Now that we can relatively safely assume that it was an accident, the real question is how to best prevent similar ones in the future... or an intentional recreating of it.


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magz
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16 Nov 2022, 7:50 am

Well, Pepe...
Image

Looks like we're not having a full-scale WWIII this time.
Which is a good news.


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16 Nov 2022, 8:07 am

magz wrote:
They say it's a missile for an S-300 system.
Both sides use it, Ukrainians for air defence, Russians as repurposed for ground attack.

In any case, no indication of the attack being intended to happen in Poland - but two people died.
Now we need to proceed very wisely not to make the situation worse.


Yip indeed. Accidents need to be taken into account and written off as accidents.

Hypothetically speaking, it NATO decided to attack Russia over accidental deaths over two people in Poland, then it'll be an escalation that'll make even Russia jealous.

If it ever did happen then a lot of Europeans will turn against NATO countries for the petty escalation that it would be. I imagine clearer heads will always prevail though.



magz
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16 Nov 2022, 8:10 am

That's why there won't be retaliation.
Probably just more arming - because random missiles flying over NATO territorry are not a reason for blowing up the planet but still a freaking serious thing.


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16 Nov 2022, 9:27 am

Polish President Duda says missile which exploded in Polish territory likely an accident

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ru ... r-AA149FAf

NATO says same thing. Situation defused for now. But, as Magz says, be wary of future "accidents."

It's tragic that two people had to lose their lives prematurely because of this "accident."



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16 Nov 2022, 2:54 pm

I always think of those Russian commanders who used their common sense and saved the world a few times. Let's hope there's more of these in Russia:

39 years ago today, one man saved us from world-ending nuclear war

https://www.vox.com/2018/9/26/17905796/ ... viet-union


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16 Nov 2022, 10:52 pm

magz wrote:
Pepe wrote:
Using skunk wisdom, there is no gain for the Russians to provoke Poland like this.

I agree with this. Whatever exactly happened, it was most likely an accident. Another option would be testing boundaries but Russians are getting really agressive with accusations, which means they're scared. That wasn't planned.
That said, the threat of it repeating remains serious and wise actions need to be taken.

Witnesses talked about two missiles but so far only one was confirmed. That's why I'd be caucious with talking about what exactly happened. It could even be both sides right - one Kalibr aimed at Ukrainian power grid node nearby and one air defence missile that diverted its course.


Yes, it was reported that 2 missiles were involved.

You can keep your Polish cookie for now.
My source may have been misinformed/mistaken. :oops: