China is Ukraine’s only hope
Whats good for the US stock market is good for China because of China central role in global manufacturing.
China does not like the disruptions to the world trade and economy that Putin's aggression is causing. Xi doesnt like uncertainty anymore than does any American corporate CEO.
But Putin and Xi did promise to back up each other's "territorial claims". So Xi is indeed in a bit of bind here.
Xi Jinping Holds Talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin February 4
...
The two sides firmly support each other in safeguarding their core interests. Political and strategic mutual trust is increasingly consolidated, and bilateral trade volume has hit a new record high. The two sides have actively participated in the reform and construction of the global governance system, jointly practiced true multilateralism, and safeguarded the true spirit of democracy. They have played a pivotal role in uniting the international community to overcome difficulties and safeguard international fairness and justice.
...
Xi Jinping emphasized that in the face of the profoundly complex and evolving international situation, China and Russia are committed to deepening back-to-back strategic cooperation and safeguarding international fairness and justice side by side. This is a strategic decision that has far-reaching influence on China, Russia and the world, and will not be shaken in the past, present and future. The two sides should continue to maintain close high-level exchanges, always adhere to the consensus of the "Four Mutual Firm Support", strongly support each other in safeguarding sovereignty, security and development interests, effectively respond to external interference and regional security threats, and maintain international strategic stability.
...
The deepening of comprehensive strategic coordination between Russia and China is conducive to the realization of the respective development of the two countries and the maintenance of the common interests of the two countries. It is also of great significance to safeguarding world strategic security and stability. The Russian side is willing to further intensify strategic communication and coordination with the Chinese side, firmly support each other in safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity, firmly uphold the core coordination role of the United Nations, firmly uphold international law and international fairness and justice, and promote the building of a more just and reasonable international order.
At least none of official reports claim to support "territorial claims".
The original text is "maintaining sovereignty" and "responding to regional security threats".
"Maintaining sovereignty" only applies to Taiwan and not Ukraine.
Also, I doubt whether Russia's war with Ukraine is a "territorial claim".
Xi Jinping talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone February 25
The two sides focused on exchanging views on the current situation in Ukraine.
Putin introduced the historical latitude and longitude of the Ukraine issue and the situation and position of Russia's special military operations in the eastern region of Ukraine. He said that the United States and NATO have ignored Russia's reasonable security concerns for a long time, repeatedly reneged on their commitments, and continued to push forward military deployments eastward, challenging Russia's strategic bottom line. The Russian side is willing to conduct high-level negotiations with the Ukrainian side.
Xi Jinping pointed out that recently, the situation in eastern Ukraine has undergone rapid changes, which has drawn great attention from the international community. China decides its position based on the merits of the Ukraine issue itself. It is necessary to abandon the Cold War mentality, attach importance to and respect the legitimate security concerns of all countries, and form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism through negotiations. China supports Russia and Ukraine to resolve the issue through negotiation. China's basic position on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter is consistent. China is willing to work with all parties in the international community to advocate a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security concept, and firmly safeguard the international system with the United Nations at the core and the international order based on international law.
I suspect that Moscow's choice of warfare was a surprise to Beijing.
Otherwise, Putin would not have had to reintroduce Ukraine's strategic significance, and even this call would not have had to happen.
Of course, it could also be a performance, but I personally don't think that's more likely.
_________________
With the help of translation software.
Cover your eyes, if you like. It will serve no purpose.
You might expect to be able to crush them in your hand, into wolf-bone fragments.
I HOPE that you're right. That I misheard the news, or they misreported it.
I would rather not hafta worry about China taking a cue - and invading Taiwan next week- and taking the world still farther down the road to WWIII.
But "sovereignty" and "security" do have to do with territorial borders. And could well be code words for saying "I dont like the neighbors putting their fences on what I know is MY property, so I and my buddy here are both gonna start moving those fences further out."
And Putin has made no secret of his contempt for Ukraine having the audacity to think of itself as "a real country" (he has a history of telling the EU to stop talking about Ukraine like its "a real country". And how is his invasion of Ukraine NOT a "territorial claim"? Ukraine was part of Czarist Russia, and it was part of the old Soviet Union. And Putin certainly acts like he wants it as part the "territory" of the modern Russian Republic. Or least certain PARTS of Ukraine (Crimea, Dombast, etc).
I don't think a war against Taiwan will break out in the near future unless there is a new upheaval.
And I don't think the timing of this war (if it happens) is up to Beijing. This is more likely the result of a breakdown in the balance between Beijing, Taiwan and Washington.
I'll start a new thread to talk about this when I have time.
_________________
With the help of translation software.
Cover your eyes, if you like. It will serve no purpose.
You might expect to be able to crush them in your hand, into wolf-bone fragments.
This appears to be the reason why Russia is considered likely to end the war by May 8.
The Victory Day military parade will be more grand every five years, inviting other countries to participate.
In 2010, the United States, Britain, France, Poland, and of course Ukraine were invited to see it. Among them, the United States, Britain, France, and Poland were invited to see it for the first time.
In 2015, for well-known reasons, the United States, Britain, France, Poland, and Ukraine were absent. China and India are invited to participate.
This can be seen as a bellwether for international relations.
In 2021, the President of Kazakhstan was present.
Now is 2022. Traditionally, it is not usually "must" to invite a foreign country.
I wonder which country will participate?
To be, or not to be: that is the question.
The result doesn't have to wait too long.
_________________
With the help of translation software.
Cover your eyes, if you like. It will serve no purpose.
You might expect to be able to crush them in your hand, into wolf-bone fragments.
This appears to be the reason why Russia is considered likely to end the war by May 8.
The Victory Day military parade will be more grand every five years, inviting other countries to participate.
In 2010, the United States, Britain, France, Poland, and of course Ukraine were invited to see it. Among them, the United States, Britain, France, and Poland were invited to see it for the first time.
In 2015, for well-known reasons, the United States, Britain, France, Poland, and Ukraine were absent. China and India are invited to participate.
This can be seen as a bellwether for international relations.
In 2021, the President of Kazakhstan was present.
Now is 2022. Traditionally, it is not usually "must" to invite a foreign country.
I wonder which country will participate?
To be, or not to be: that is the question.
The result doesn't have to wait too long.
I will bet your left testicle that China the CCP will be invited.
I think this means that while Moscow's military action is an annoyance for Beijing, Beijing doesn't want Russia to be completely rout because of it. So Beijing will provide some support.
This is closer to a delicate alliance formed to deal with a common enemy.
So I guess it could be said that China is trying to figure out how to navigate this situation and somehow find and then end up with what is best for China in the overall picture; as in, "We want what is best for us, but first we have to sort out and define what exactly is the best for us in this thing."
Which is to be expected of any government.
Ideally, for the CCP, Russia will be the CCP's biatch.
Russia is an unreliable ally to China - given what Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union have done to China in the past, and Putin himself seems to have a better liking for the West.
But both have a bigger common enemy.
And I think, if Beijing indulges Russia to die, the puppet regime that rises from its corpse is likely to deliver a fatal blow to China. Perhaps Beijing will take a similar view.
Beijing is trying to find ways to achieve its goals in ways that do not offend other forces.
How could Russia die and become a puppet regime?
No one is talking about invading Russia.
I guess I could Google the answer.
I don't think a war against Taiwan will break out in the near future unless there is a new upheaval.
And I don't think the timing of this war (if it happens) is up to Beijing. This is more likely the result of a breakdown in the balance between Beijing, Taiwan and Washington.
I'll start a new thread to talk about this when I have time.
Like Russia, the CCP is the aggressor here.
Positions from Taiwan and "Washington" are only defensive.
If a war breaks out over Taiwan, it will be the CCP who will initiate it by invading a sovereign nation.
RetroGamer87
Veteran
Joined: 30 Jul 2013
Age: 36
Gender: Male
Posts: 10,932
Location: Adelaide, Australia
When the confederate states seceded from the union, the union didn't wait around for 70 years to force them back. Their retaliation was swift and brutal and had a lasting and well deserved economic impact. If China is unable to do the same thing for a much smaller seceding faction, it makes them look weak.
Do they fear retaliation from western countries? Maybe that will happen but if western countries are on Taiwan's side, why do they acknowladge the PRC as the legitimate Chinese government?
_________________
The days are long, but the years are short
No one is talking about invading Russia.
The Ukrainian war is draining Russian blood. A prolonged war would lead to a economic collapse within Russia, that is, Putin would lose the legitimacy of his rule. If this happens, many forces can intervene in the political changes that follow.
The 2014 Ukrainian coup did not involve any "invasion."
_________________
With the help of translation software.
Cover your eyes, if you like. It will serve no purpose.
You might expect to be able to crush them in your hand, into wolf-bone fragments.
Last edited by SkinnedWolf on 23 Apr 2022, 4:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
It would have happened around 1950, but Chiang Kai-shek had Washington's backing.
_________________
With the help of translation software.
Cover your eyes, if you like. It will serve no purpose.
You might expect to be able to crush them in your hand, into wolf-bone fragments.
Positions from Taiwan and "Washington" are only defensive.
If a war breaks out over Taiwan, it will be the CCP who will initiate it by invading a sovereign nation.
1992 Consensus
At least half of Taiwan's political parties disagree with you.
The 1992 consensus stated that both the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang agreed that there was "only one China".
Survey results in 2018 showed that Taiwanese accepted and rejected the consensus evenly.
_________________
With the help of translation software.
Cover your eyes, if you like. It will serve no purpose.
You might expect to be able to crush them in your hand, into wolf-bone fragments.
This appears to be the reason why Russia is considered likely to end the war by May 8.
The Victory Day military parade will be more grand every five years, inviting other countries to participate.
In 2010, the United States, Britain, France, Poland, and of course Ukraine were invited to see it. Among them, the United States, Britain, France, and Poland were invited to see it for the first time.
In 2015, for well-known reasons, the United States, Britain, France, Poland, and Ukraine were absent. China and India are invited to participate.
This can be seen as a bellwether for international relations.
In 2021, the President of Kazakhstan was present.
Now is 2022. Traditionally, it is not usually "must" to invite a foreign country.
I wonder which country will participate?
To be, or not to be: that is the question.
The result doesn't have to wait too long.
I will bet your left testicle that China the CCP will be invited.
The bet don't exist.
That is you don't think "invitation" will happen?
I think the "invitation" is likely to happen, but the CCP will not "accept" it.
_________________
With the help of translation software.
Cover your eyes, if you like. It will serve no purpose.
You might expect to be able to crush them in your hand, into wolf-bone fragments.
RetroGamer87
Veteran
Joined: 30 Jul 2013
Age: 36
Gender: Male
Posts: 10,932
Location: Adelaide, Australia
Positions from Taiwan and "Washington" are only defensive.
If a war breaks out over Taiwan, it will be the CCP who will initiate it by invading a sovereign nation.
1992 Consensus
At least half of Taiwan's political parties disagree with you.
The 1992 consensus stated that both the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang agreed that there was "only one China".
Survey results in 2018 showed that Taiwanese accepted and rejected the consensus evenly.
Both Chinas believe there is one China. That is quite a paradox.
If China divides again and creates a third state you could have another romance of the three kingdoms.
_________________
The days are long, but the years are short
No one is talking about invading Russia.
The Ukrainian war is draining Russian blood. A prolonged war would lead to a economic collapse within Russia, that is, Putin would lose the legitimacy of his rule. If this happens, many forces can intervene in the political changes that follow.
The 2014 Ukrainian coup did not involve any "invasion."
But a new regime will still have the biggest nuclear arsenal, a large army, and abundant wealth in resources.
Hardly a lightweight country.
"A rose by any other name is still a rose."
NATO is no actual threat, in terms of invasion, to Russia.
It is a *defensive* alliance.
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